Fitch Ratings affirmed Kuwait’s Long-Term Issuer Default Ratings at AA- with a Stable Outlook on 7 August. Its review weighed strong fiscal and external balance sheets against heavy oil dependence, weaker governance than peers, and a costly welfare system and large public sector. This is a rating agency’s assessment, not an official government forecast or guarantee. The report mixes historical estimates, observed data and forecasts, so those bases need to remain distinct when its figures are cited.

Fitch identified access to oil exports through the Strait of Hormuz as a key vulnerability. It said production had fallen to 0.78 million barrels per day in March-May 2026, then recovered to 1.65 million in June and about 2 million in July. The agency forecast average crude production of 2 million barrels per day in fiscal year ending March 2027. These figures refer to the report’s periods and forecast horizon; they should not be treated as live or final data. Fitch also said uncertainty over transit conditions remained high.

For FY26, Fitch forecast an average Kuwait oil price of USD 81.4 per barrel and said the fiscal break-even price, excluding investment income, would remain above USD 100. Under the government’s reporting convention, which excludes Fitch’s estimate of Kuwait Investment Authority investment income, the agency expected the deficit to widen to about 19% of GDP. It separately estimated that including KIA investment income could produce an overall fiscal surplus of 1.7% of GDP. Those balances use different income coverage and cannot be compared as if they were the same measure.

Fitch projected sovereign net foreign assets at 668% of GDP in 2026, compared with an estimated 652% in 2025. It also expected government debt to rise from 2.9% of GDP in FY24 to 38% by end-FY28, still below its projected 2028 AA median of 51.5%. These are agency estimates and forecasts, not observed results. The report notes that KIA assets are not officially reported and that Fitch estimates them using assumptions informed by transfers, returns and other benchmarks.

The rating rationale therefore combines a buffer against shocks with risks from oil exports, public spending and borrowing needs. Fitch listed geopolitical escalation or prolonged export disruption among potential downside factors. It said an upgrade would require evidence of progress on long-term fiscal challenges and lower geopolitical risk. These conditions do not mean a future rating change is scheduled. The projections depend on Fitch’s assumptions; actual outcomes can differ with oil prices, production, transit access and fiscal execution.