Story details
The U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics reported that nonfarm payroll employment increased by 29,000 in September in its Employment Situation release published on October 2. This is the seasonally adjusted monthly change estimated by the Current Employment Statistics (CES) survey, which collects payroll and workplace information from employers. BLS said employment changed little across all major industries during the month. The average monthly gain over the preceding 12 months was 45,000, a period comparison distinct from September’s single-month result. The figure is a survey-based estimate produced with statistical methods; it is not a completed administrative count of every job.
The 4.2% unemployment rate in the same release comes from a different survey. The Current Population Survey (CPS), a household survey, measures labor-force status and estimated 7.109 million unemployed people in September, or about 7.1 million, on a seasonally adjusted basis. The unemployment rate has remained in a narrow 4.1% to 4.3% range since March. It is the number of unemployed people as a share of the labor force, not another way of expressing the monthly payroll change. CPS includes agricultural workers, unincorporated self-employed people and unpaid family workers; CES payroll employment excludes those groups. The two headline measures therefore do not count the same population in the same way.
The wage and hours figures also come from CES, but cover employees on private nonfarm payrolls. Average hourly earnings for all such employees rose 5 cents to $37.81 in September, a 0.1% monthly increase and a 3.0% gain over 12 months. The average workweek was unchanged at 34.4 hours. These are averages for employees on private nonfarm employer payrolls, not total household income or a measure of every worker’s pay. A separate series for production and nonsupervisory employees showed a 7-cent increase to $32.60 an hour. That group’s figure should not be substituted for the $37.81 average for all employees.
BLS revised the prior two months’ payroll estimates as additional employer reports arrived and seasonal factors were recalculated. The July change was lowered by 31,000, from a previously reported gain of 21,000 to a decline of 10,000. August’s increase was revised down by 29,000, from 162,000 to 133,000. Together, employment in July and August was 60,000 lower than previously reported. The agency explains that CES revises its initial monthly estimates in each of the next two months as new sample responses and updated seasonal factors become available. September’s 29,000 is therefore an initial estimate as well, not a final figure. BLS also cautions that estimates are subject to sampling and nonsampling error.
The surveys also use different reference periods and have different coverage. CPS generally refers to the calendar week containing the 12th day of the month, while CES uses the payroll period that includes the 12th; those periods may not align exactly. The release consequently presents complementary indicators rather than a single interchangeable employment total. September’s payroll change is seasonally adjusted, as are the unemployment rate and unemployed count in the household survey table. The wage and weekly-hours figures refer to private nonfarm employees. These measures provide information about labor-market conditions, but this one release alone does not determine future hiring, pay growth or the experience of people seeking work.


