The UK Office for National Statistics (ONS), in its labour-market bulletin published on 15 September, presented Labour Force Survey (LFS) estimates for May to July 2026 alongside an early estimate from August payroll data. The LFS unemployment rate for people aged 16 and over was 4.9%, up 0.2 percentage points on a year earlier but broadly unchanged from the previous three-month period. The employment rate for people aged 16 to 64 was 75.1%, largely unchanged over the latest quarter. The economic inactivity rate for that age group fell to 20.9%, down 0.1 percentage points both over the year and over the quarter.

A separate administrative source, HMRC’s Pay As You Earn Real Time Information records, put the early estimate of payroll employees at 30.2 million in August. That was 145,000, or 0.5%, below August 2025; the month-on-month decline from July was 26,000, or 0.1%. Payroll employees in May to July were 84,000 lower than a year earlier. The ONS said the August PAYE estimate is provisional and may be revised as more records arrive next month. The Claimant Count estimate also rose over the month and year to 1.692 million in August; the ONS currently designates this indicator as official statistics in development.

The survey-based employment and unemployment rates and the administrative payroll records draw on different sources, coverage and reference periods. The bulletin does not combine them into one statistic: the LFS provides a rolling three-month estimate, while PAYE records count employees on payroll. The August payroll figure is early and subject to revision, while the May-to-July survey period measures labour-market status over a different window. That distinction matters when comparing headline indicators. The ONS also notes that its labour-force survey has undergone sampling and collection changes and that volatility can remain in detailed subgroups. The release summarises what the current official series measure; it does not by itself establish the direction of future employment.