The Bank of Russia published its September inflation expectations and consumer sentiment review on 6 October 2026. The median household expectation for inflation over the next 12 months rose to 14.2%, from 13.7% in August. This is a survey result, not realized inflation. It measures households’ forward-looking assessment of prices and is conceptually different from the official consumer price index.

Household expectations for inflation five years ahead declined to 10.7% in September. The same review put perceived annual inflation at 15.1%. The distinction between expectations and perceived past price growth matters: one is a forward-looking response, the other is respondents’ retrospective assessment. These are median survey measures; they do not represent every household’s forecast or determine the future outcome of official inflation.

The consumer sentiment index increased in September. The Bank said the improvement was mainly due to more positive expectations among respondents, while assessments of current conditions improved less. Even after rising, the index remained below its 2023–2025 levels. The share of respondents who said they preferred saving rather than spending free money increased to 52.9%. These survey results do not directly measure all consumer behavior or actual spending volumes.

Firms’ price expectations also rose overall in September. In the Bank’s monitoring survey, expectations increased in manufacturing, services and construction, declined in agriculture and trade, and were almost unchanged in transportation and storage. Firms’ expected average selling-price growth over the next three months, seasonally adjusted and expressed at an annualized rate, rose to 7.0%. This is not a confirmed price increase for the next quarter; it is an annualized measure of companies’ stated expectations.

Alongside survey expectations, the report reiterated the Bank’s forecast for annual inflation of 6–7% in 2026. It expects inflation to be at target in 2027 and beyond, taking monetary policy into account. This is the central bank’s forecast and conditional assessment, not an observed outcome or guarantee. The 14.2% household expectation and the Bank’s 6–7% forecast refer to different measures and horizons.

The report identifies the sources behind its measures: inFOM for the household survey and Rosstat for official price statistics; business price expectations come from the Bank of Russia’s own monitoring survey. Survey questions and samples therefore differ from the official price statistics. The Bank’s review summarizes the relevant survey findings, and the figures in this article are not described as official consumer-price changes.

A single September reading does not establish that expectations have risen persistently or that consumer demand has increased. Expectations, perceptions and the sentiment index are separate monthly survey series. The direction of realized inflation is measured in later official CPI releases, while actual spending requires other statistics. The percentages here come from the Bank’s September review published on 6 October. Survey findings, forecasts and targets are explicitly kept distinct.