The IMF Executive Board completed combined third and fourth reviews under Madagascar’s Extended Credit Facility (ECF) and Resilience and Sustainability Facility (RSF) arrangements on September 30. It authorised immediate disbursement of SDR 114.052 million: SDR 73.32 million under the ECF and SDR 40.732 million under the RSF. The decision enables financing; it does not confirm that the full amount has reached the treasury. The SDR is an IMF reserve asset, not the US dollar or ariary. Both arrangements are 36-month programmes approved in June 2024.

Real GDP growth is estimated at 3.1 percent in 2025, below the 4 percent figure in the earlier second review. Growth is projected at 3.8 percent in 2026, linked by the IMF to post-cyclone reconstruction and the government recovery plan. The 2025 value is an estimate in the IMF table, not a final national-accounts result; 2026 is a projection. The actual contribution of reconstruction to measured growth can be assessed only after later national statistics are available. Presenting projections as outcomes would overstate what is known about the disaster’s economic effects and programme performance.

The current-account deficit including grants is shown at 6.0 percent of GDP in 2025 and 8.3 percent in 2026, with the latter a forecast. The IMF cites high oil prices, cyclone-related imports and damage to mining among the reasons for the widening. Electricity outages and water shortages are also constraints on production and household services. Those conditions can affect import costs, foreign-exchange needs and demands on the budget at once; the statement identifies them as risk channels but does not supply a separate causal estimate. The outlook therefore cannot be read only through reconstruction spending.

Tax collection fell short of expectations. The IMF says Madagascar missed its end-June 2025 primary-balance performance criterion, then took corrective action and met all end-December 2025 criteria. It calls for reviewing exemptions, strengthening tax and customs administration and implementing measures in the 2026 supplementary budget. Higher revenue could create room for social and growth-supporting expenditure, but collection methods and effects on lower-income households also matter. The release does not say the reforms have been implemented or additional revenue already collected. The board decision continues a revised programme; it does not erase earlier implementation problems.

Energy and climate actions form another part of the programme. The IMF calls for JIRAMA’s recovery plan to improve electricity and water reliability while limiting calls on the state budget. Full application of the automatic fuel-pricing mechanism is planned by January 2027, alongside targeted protection for vulnerable groups; a price adjustment alone does not guarantee efficiency. Madagascar adopted its first green budget and a National Climate Finance Strategy, but some RSF reforms were delayed. An authorised loan or climate facility is not evidence that projects have been completed on the ground, and the release provides no project-level spending or outcome table.

The indicators should be read with their periods and status intact: 2025 growth is a 3.1 percent estimate, 2026 growth a 3.8 percent projection; the current-account deficit is estimated at 6.0 percent in 2025 and projected at 8.3 percent in 2026. Completion of the board review, actual disbursement and results from reforms are separate stages. Later assessment should track national accounts, budget execution, electricity and water services, and climate measures individually. The IMF statement brings these topics together but provides no single performance indicator for all of them. This report describes the programme statement and table; it does not call the financing decision an achieved economic improvement.