In a Beijing-datelined dispatch on 2 October, Xinhua reported Ministry of Transport figures putting nationwide cross-regional passenger movements at 329.495 million on 1 October, the first day of the National Day holiday. The ministry figure was 1.9% lower than a year earlier. A movement count can include more than one trip leg by the same person; it is not a count of unique individuals. The total describes a national transport flow reported across road, rail, water and civil aviation measures.

By mode, the report gave 25.204 million rail passenger trips, 300.36 million road passenger movements, 1.416 million water passenger trips and 2.515 million civil-aviation passenger trips. The source uses different terms across modes: passenger transport for rail, water and aviation, and passenger movement for road. That distinction matters because the ministry’s road series is broader than tickets sold by intercity bus operators. These numbers should not be read as passenger counts from one transport company or as a tally of journeys by unique people.

Year-on-year changes moved in different directions. Rail passenger trips rose 9%, water transport rose 7.2% and civil aviation increased 0.5%. Road movements fell 2.8%; the 1.9% decline in the national total reflects the weight of that much larger mode in the ministry’s series. The report uses the same day a year earlier as its comparison base. A single day’s change, however, does not establish the annual direction of travel volume over the complete holiday or transport demand more broadly.

The reported 329.495 million is not the same as the forecast issued before the holiday. On 24 September, Xinhua’s coverage of a Ministry of Transport briefing said about 340 million cross-regional movements might be expected on 1 October. The 2 October dispatch then carried the ministry’s figure for the completed first day. The gap is a reminder that the earlier projection should not be presented as an observed result. The lead figure here is the 1 October value reported by Xinhua from the ministry; the same dispatch separately labels its 2 October number as a forecast.

In the same dispatch, Xinhua said the ministry expected 308.19 million cross-regional movements on 2 October, up 2.1% year on year. The dispatch appeared during the afternoon of 2 October, so this was a forecast for that same, still incomplete day, not a final daily result. The structured data retain its forecast basis. Adding it to the reported result for 1 October would not produce an observed two-day total. Daily flows, planned capacity and advance reservations describe different things and must retain their original scope.

Road’s position as the largest reported component shows that the national total is not a measure of any single type of journey. Rail, water and air trips are reported through different infrastructure and recording processes, while the ministry presents them side by side in a movement series. The source does not explain how often a person is counted when making connections or return journeys. The 329.495 million should therefore be described as the reported volume of movement handled by the national transport system that day, not the number of households or people who travelled.

The time window also matters. 1 October was the first day of China’s National Day holiday, and Xinhua published the report at 16:10 on 2 October. The lead figure describes the completed 1 October day. The number for 2 October is explicitly a forecast for the still incomplete publication day. The dispatch supplies daily national totals and annual changes for four modes, but no seven-day holiday total, provincial or city breakdown, distance travelled or spending per passenger.

The strongest supported conclusion is that reported movements on the first day totalled 329.495 million and that the modes changed in different directions: rail, water and air rose while road declined. The figure is below the pre-holiday forecast of about 340 million, but the sources do not explain the difference in method or timing, so no cause should be inferred. Later-day forecasts must remain distinct from reported results, and national totals should not be added to station, city or visitor counts that could overlap. The source supports only this national daily snapshot.