In its Nigeria Poverty and Equity Brief released on 8 October 2026, the World Bank says the share of people below the national poverty line increased from 40.1% in 2019 to 56.2% in 2023 and is estimated at 63% for 2026. The first two values draw on Nigeria’s 2019 and 2023 Living Standards Surveys. The 2026 figure is not a new household-survey measurement; it is an estimate presented alongside the Bank’s current economic outlook. The distinction matters: the rise through 2023 describes a measured survey trend, while the 2026 figure refers to a projected period.

The brief says multidimensional poverty also increased. The World Bank’s measure combines monetary poverty with deprivation in education and basic infrastructure, including access to water, sanitation and electricity. The Bank reports 43.5% in 2019 and 47.4% in 2023. The increase indicates that aggregate economic growth does not automatically translate into equal gains in living standards for every household. Multidimensional and monetary poverty are different concepts; their rates should not be added or treated as interchangeable.

The Bank’s analysis says inequality can fall even as poverty rises. Its Gini index declined from 35.1 in 2019 to 33.9 in 2023, but the brief cautions that this does not mean poorer households caught up with wealthier ones. The Bank’s explanation is that households across the distribution became poorer, while losses were proportionally larger at the top. That pattern can lower measured inequality even as more people fall below the poverty line. The Gini figure alone therefore cannot describe the overall direction of household welfare. Poverty, inequality and access to essential services need to be read together.

For 2026, the Bank says activity strengthened in services, industry and agriculture, while inflation moderated. Its brief projects headline inflation to decline from 23.0% in 2025 to 15.7% in 2026, and food inflation from 22.0% to 14.7%. Yet the national poverty rate is still estimated at 63% for 2026, suggesting that the expected economic improvement has not translated sufficiently into gains for poorer households. The Bank says more than 90% of workers are employed informally and identifies job quality as a constraint on productivity and income growth. Inflation projections and the poverty estimate should not be reported as completed annual outcomes.

There is an important limitation to the survey comparison. The 2023 Nigeria Living Standards Survey followed the same sampling and implementation approach as the 2019 survey, allowing the Bank to estimate trends. However, parts of Taraba and Zamfara states were inaccessible because of insecurity and flooding. Together, those states account for about 4.4% of the population. The 2023 estimate therefore does not directly observe every area of the country. National results should be presented with the report’s data coverage in view, and the brief cannot establish household conditions in the inaccessible areas with certainty.

The Bank argues that faster poverty reduction will require higher productivity and earnings in agriculture and informal household enterprises, better-quality jobs, and improved access to electricity, clean cooking, health care, education and food security. These are policy assessments in the brief, not reported outcomes of newly completed programmes. It also cites a World Food Programme estimate that about 35 million people could face acute food insecurity in 2026; that figure is another forward-looking needs estimate. Until new official survey results are published, 2023 remains the latest comparable survey year, while 2026 should be described as the World Bank’s estimate.