Saudi Arabia’s National Center for Meteorology (NCM) said in its October 4 climate outlook for October–December 2026 that rainfall is expected to exceed normal levels across much of the Kingdom in October. It put the probability at up to 80%, with moderate to heavy rain possible and very heavy amounts possible in some western and southwestern areas. For November, the center forecast an up-to-75% chance of above-normal rainfall across most regions.

In December, rainfall is forecast to be near normal across most of the country. The NCM gave a 40–50% chance of above-normal rain in parts of the Eastern Province and Makkah region. It also expects surface temperatures to remain above normal nationwide during all three months, with maximum anomalies reaching 3°C in October, 2.5°C in November and 1.5°C in December in specified areas.

These are seasonal probability forecasts, not guarantees for a particular day or location. The agency says its outlook is intended to inform planning in sectors including water management, agriculture and emergency preparedness. Forecast probabilities should not be read as observed rainfall measurements.