INEGI’s System of Cyclical Indicators, released on 2 October, reported that the Coincident Indicator reached 100.0 points in July 2026, up 0.10 points from June. The institute uses 100 as the reference line for the long-term trend. July’s reading therefore placed the index at its own long-term trend benchmark; it does not, by itself, imply a particular amount of growth in production or GDP.

The system contains two composite indicators. The Coincident Indicator is intended to reflect the economy’s general state and possible turning points. The Leading Indicator seeks to signal turning points in the coincident measure ahead of time. In the same release, INEGI put the Leading Indicator at 100.8 in August, 0.02 points higher than in July and above its long-term trend. Because one reading refers to July and the other to August, they should not be treated as two measures for the same month.

Components of the coincident measure include an indicator of economic activity, industrial activity, retail revenues, permanent workers registered with IMSS, the urban unemployment rate and total imports. The leading measure combines different elements, including manufacturing employment trends, business views of whether it is a good time to invest, the real stock-market index, the Mexico–United States real exchange rate, interest rates and a US equity index. This composition means the result is not based on one survey or one sector; movements in different directions among components affect how the composite should be read.

INEGI’s table shows the Coincident Indicator at 100.0 in July, 0.10 points above June. The level at 100 and the monthly increase together mean the index rose from the previous month and sat on its long-term trend line. But a level and a monthly difference are distinct measures. A value of 100 is not a growth percentage, and a 0.10-point change does not mean GDP rose 0.10%.

The Leading Indicator moved to 100.8 in August, remaining above the 100 reference. Its 0.02-point monthly increase is small, and the method does not guarantee a future economic outcome. The leading measure is intended to inform turning-point analysis. It should not be presented as a forecast of production, employment, exports or market performance on a specific date. As actual economic data arrive, components and historical index calculations may be updated.

Under the growth-cycle approach, the system assesses where component cycles stand relative to their respective long-term trends. The 100 line is a benchmark; being above or below it describes position relative to that reference, not a rate of change. INEGI also publishes separate graphs of the Coincident Indicator under the classical business-cycle approach. Since the two approaches use different concepts and interpretive limits, the position in one should not be confused with the recession and expansion definitions of the other.

The institute gives an important caution: the size of a fall or recovery in the Coincident Indicator should not be treated as a measure of contraction or recovery in economic activity; instead, it indicates the degree of certainty about the economy’s direction. July’s 0.10-point increase is therefore not a direct growth estimate. Likewise, a reading at the 100 threshold is not sufficient on its own to diagnose broad-based expansion or contraction. Direct assessments of production and national income require national accounts and relevant monthly indicators.

The bulletin shows that the coincident composite rose from June to reach its long-term trend in July, while the leading measure was slightly higher and above 100 in August. The indicators refer to different months and are designed for cyclical analysis. This article reports the points as published without converting them into a GDP growth percentage, asserting cause and effect or making a definitive claim about the future. Subsequent monthly releases can show whether the pattern continues.