The International Monetary Fund’s Executive Board concluded its 2026 Article IV consultation with Algeria on 11 September; the assessment was released on 21 September. The IMF estimates that real GDP growth, supported by strong public investment, rose from 3.7 percent in 2024 to 3.9 percent in 2025. It projects growth of 3.8 percent in 2026. The review considers that outlook alongside public finances, prices and the external position.

Positive growth has not removed the fiscal pressures highlighted by the IMF. Its selected indicators put the central government budget balance at minus 14 percent of GDP in 2024 and minus 10.5 percent in 2025; the projection for 2026 is minus 9.6 percent. Large one-off dividend payments from state-owned enterprises and the Bank of Algeria also contributed to the narrowing in 2025. The Fund nevertheless says the deficit remains very large and fiscal buffers have been depleted.

The IMF’s gross government debt series records 52.1 percent of GDP for 2025 and projects 53.2 percent for 2026. In its outlook, the ratio rises to 60.4 percent in 2027, 71.2 percent in 2029 and 79.0 percent in 2031. These are not observed future outcomes: they are projections prepared using the information and assumptions available to the report. The path shows why continued deficits could make the debt burden a significant medium-term concern.

The external position faces pressure as well. The IMF says the current-account deficit widened sharply as imports rose and hydrocarbon exports declined, leading to large reserve losses. Gross official reserves are listed at $68.9 billion in 2024 and an estimated $51.0 billion in 2025. The IMF projects $46.5 billion in 2026, $27.8 billion in 2028 and $23.5 billion in 2029. This is a projection series, not a daily reserve balance or a realized future result.

On prices, the IMF release says headline inflation rose from minus 2 percent in September 2025 to 5.2 percent in April 2026, as food-price deflation ended and higher gold prices contributed. The Fund’s annual-average consumer-price measure is separate: it is 5.5 percent for 2025 and projected at 3.5 percent for 2026. The two descriptions do not cover an identical measure or period. A dated inflation point should not be confused with an annual average.

Stronger near-term hydrocarbon revenues could improve the budget and external outlook; the IMF describes that prospect as an opportunity to rebuild buffers. Oil and gas receipts remain sensitive to prices and production, however. The Fund does not guarantee that higher income will persist or suggest that it makes elevated spending sustainable on its own. Its policy point is to use a temporary revenue windfall to strengthen public finances rather than to lock in further recurrent spending.

The IMF’s recommendations include gradual and credible fiscal consolidation, stronger non-hydrocarbon revenue, more efficient public investment and phased energy-subsidy reform with protection for vulnerable households. It also calls for a clearer low-inflation anchor for monetary policy, greater operational independence for the Bank of Algeria and limits on monetary financing outside exceptional circumstances. These are the Fund’s policy recommendations, not measures that this release says Algeria has already enacted.

An Article IV consultation is the IMF’s regular country-surveillance process; this assessment is not itself a new loan approval or financial-assistance programme. Its central question is not only whether the economy grows, but how growth can be supported without drawing down reserves and fiscal capacity. Subsequent data on expenditure composition, revenue diversification, public-bank risks and activity outside hydrocarbons will help show how the outlook develops.