The U.S. Energy Information Administration expects household energy spending in winter 2026–27 to vary by heating fuel and regional weather outlooks, according to an October 7 Winter Fuels Outlook analysis. It forecasts lower average spending for homes heated with natural gas or propane and higher costs for those using electricity or heating oil. These are EIA forecasts, not observed winter bills.

Homes using heating oil account for about 3% of U.S. households and face the largest projected spending increase. EIA expects their spending to rise 21% from last winter. It forecasts the average heating-oil price will be 34% higher, although warmer weather could partly offset the price effect. Spending and price changes are different measures and do not directly show a household’s energy use.

More than 40% of U.S. homes use electricity as their primary heating fuel. EIA forecasts an average 4% increase in their electricity bills. Average spending is expected to fall 9% for natural-gas-heated homes and 3% for propane-heated homes. These are national estimates; an individual bill can differ with consumption, insulation, utility rates and local weather.

The national weather assumption is close to last winter overall, but includes opposing regional shifts. EIA expects a warmer Northeast after a relatively cold prior winter and a much colder West after an unusually warm one. Temperatures in the Midwest and South are assumed to be similar to last winter. A national average can therefore obscure different regional outcomes.

Heating-oil costs are affected by tight global distillate markets. EIA says U.S. distillate exports rose 20% in the first seven months of 2026 from a year earlier and forecasts inventories in the fourth quarter will be 11% below the five-year average. This market connection helps explain the price outlook, but does not guarantee any particular household’s final cost.

Consumers can use the projections as budget scenarios when considering weatherization, thermostat settings or fuel-supply choices, rather than as fixed bills. Actual costs depend on winter temperatures, market prices, consumption and local tariffs. The forecast period is November 2026 through March 2027; estimates may change as new weather and market information arrives.