A Tunisia Economic Monitor released by the World Bank on 22 September places water scarcity at the centre of the country’s growth and employment outlook. The Bank reports that Tunisia’s economy grew 2.7 percent in 2025 and expanded 2.4 percent year on year in the first half of 2026. Agriculture, mechanical and electrical industries, and tourism supported the recovery over those periods. It expects growth to ease to 2.3 percent in 2026 and average 2.1 percent in 2027–2028.

The report’s special chapter describes a structural limit on one of the economy’s essential resources. Tunisia has about 380 cubic metres of renewable freshwater available per person each year, a level the World Bank places well below the threshold for absolute water scarcity. This national average is not a claim about how much water each resident consumes or how much a household receives through its tap. It reflects the relationship between the population and renewable resources at an aggregate scale.

The Bank expects climate change and rising demand to increase pressure on resources that are already limited. That pressure can matter to activities ranging from farm production decisions to urban services. The report treats water security as an economic factor affecting production, productivity, investment and job creation, as well as an environmental concern. The press release does not provide current water supply, withdrawal or crop-use figures by region or user group.

The most striking calculation is that water scarcity could reduce Tunisia’s gross domestic product by 6.4 percent by 2050 if action is not taken. This is not a loss that has already occurred or a certain point forecast for economic growth; it is a long-term modeled impact conditioned on water and policy assumptions. The source also says that at least 30 percent of agricultural jobs could disappear by mid-century without action. The figure describes estimated jobs at risk, not a measured number of people who have already lost work.

Agriculture’s vulnerability also reflects its place in the workforce. According to the World Bank, it employs 14 percent of workers nationally and up to half of rural workers. Water stress could affect agricultural output and related activities such as processing, transport and trade. The report says effects may extend to tourism and industry, which also depend on water. The released summary does not quantify production losses or measured employment changes by sector.

The first phase of RESEau, a water-sector programme supported by the World Bank Group, is expected to generate about 4,000 permanent jobs and 13,400 temporary jobs. These are projected programme effects, not completed hires. Permanent and temporary roles may differ in duration and timing, and the programme’s projected employment does not imply that national unemployment will fall by the same amount.

The labour market context matters: unemployment fell to 14.9 percent in the second quarter, while women’s unemployment stood at 21.6 percent, nearly twice the rate for men. These figures indicate that growth and employment opportunities are not shared evenly. The World Bank report brings the existing recovery in agriculture and tourism together with future water risks; it does not establish that one published figure caused another.

Following these estimates will require separating modeled effects from implementation results. Water scenarios, prices and policy assumptions matter to the projected losses, and the press release does not reproduce the full model tables. Regular data on available water by source, distribution losses, efficiency, farm output and jobs actually created through the programme would help show progress. The release establishes the economic importance of Tunisia’s water constraint; it does not say that projected programme effects have already materialized.