IMF staff and the Haitian authorities reached a staff-level agreement on the fourth review of Haiti’s Staff-Monitored Program (SMP), according to a statement published September 28. The outcome remains subject to IMF management approval. It does not mean the Executive Board approved a lending arrangement or that money was transferred to Haiti. An SMP is an informal framework for monitoring the authorities’ economic programme and building a track record that could support a later request for IMF financing. The fourth-review virtual mission took place from September 14 to 25. The agreement is an intermediate stage, not final approval or a financing decision.

IMF staff said the economy was expected to contract for an eighth consecutive year in fiscal 2026 and annual inflation was projected at about 16 percent. Inflation had peaked above 32 percent in October 2025. The roughly 16 percent figure is a fiscal-year forecast, not a recorded outcome. The statement places the outlook alongside insecurity, severe humanitarian and social conditions, and multiple adverse shocks. Staff also said higher oil prices were pressuring public finances and the external position and contributing to living costs. Those issues matter for food, fuel and essential services, but the release does not provide a household-level inflation measure.

Net international reserves were reported at about US$1.9 billion at end-June 2026. Gross reserves were described as adequate at around seven months of prospective imports. Both figures are approximate estimates reported by IMF staff, not a final audited balance sheet. Import cover uses future import needs as a reference and does not mean the same amount of foreign currency can be spent each month. Staff expected the current account to remain in surplus despite a weak trade balance. Net and gross reserves have different coverage and should not be compared without stating their definitions. These figures provide context on buffers, not assurance against future external shocks.

At end-June 2026, all quantitative and indicative programme targets were met except the continuous target on not accumulating external arrears. The IMF said temporary arrears linked to administrative and capacity constraints were promptly cleared. That qualification matters: meeting most targets does not mean implementation was frictionless, because the exception concerned timely external debt service and institutional capacity. The ceiling on central-bank financing of the non-financial public sector was also met. Structural reforms were advancing, but some were delayed by limited capacity and a difficult operating environment. The review concerns both the number of targets met and the practical limits on monitoring and implementation.

The new tax code was due to enter into force on October 1 and was identified as an important milestone. The September statement records the approaching date and reform priorities; it does not verify later implementation of the law. IMF staff called for modernising tax and customs administration, improving data interoperability between institutions, maintaining a transparent rules-based fuel-pricing framework, and strengthening expenditure tracking and cash controls for public investment. Better beneficiary identification in social assistance was also presented as a way to target resources. The effects of these measures can be assessed through later revenue and service outcomes, rather than the legal date alone.

Downside risks listed by staff included renewed security setbacks, higher oil prices, delayed pass-through of fuel and minimum-wage increases, possible weaker remittances after the end of Temporary Protected Status for Haitians in the United States, and El Niño-related drought. These are risk scenarios, not outcomes already observed. The SMP does not grant borrowing authority; the statement describes how a track record could later help Haiti access upper-credit-tranche resources. The distinctions are that the staff agreement awaits management approval, reserve and inflation figures are estimates, and the programme itself is not a new financing facility. The release presents the IMF team’s assessment of Haiti’s economic and humanitarian conditions.