Bulgaria’s National Statistical Institute (NSI) published a flash estimate for September consumer prices on 1 October 2026. The headline Consumer Price Index (CPI) was estimated to fall 0.3% from August, while the annual rate was put at 5.6%. For the Harmonised Index of Consumer Prices (HICP), the estimated monthly change was minus 0.1% and the annual rate was also 5.6%. These are not final results. NSI says the estimate uses registered prices covering about 90% of all planned registrations for September; the remaining observations will be included in the final calculation. The final September release was scheduled for 14 October. September figures should therefore continue to be identified as estimates.

The annual rate of 5.6% and the monthly CPI estimate of minus 0.3% answer different questions. Annual inflation compares September 2026 prices with September 2025; the monthly rate compares September with August. An estimated fall over one month does not mean prices declined over the full year. CPI and HICP are also separate measures: CPI is Bulgaria’s national consumer-price index, while HICP is harmonised to support comparisons between countries. The same rounded annual estimate in this release does not prove that the two indices have identical baskets, coverage or methods. Their different monthly estimates are another reason to keep the series distinct. Neither rate measures the absolute price level or exactly reproduces each household’s own spending experience.

In the CPI breakdown, the largest estimated monthly falls were recreation, sport and culture, down 10.4%; restaurants and accommodation services, down 1.1%; and furnishings, household equipment and routine household maintenance, down 0.5%. The largest estimated increases were transport, up 3.4%; education services, up 3.2%; and alcoholic beverages and tobacco, up 1.1%. HICP showed restaurants and accommodation down 4.3%, recreation down 3.3%, and furnishings down 0.2%; education rose 3.2%, transport 1.7%, and alcohol and tobacco 1.0%. These are selected category movements highlighted by NSI. They are not a complete list of prices and do not show each group’s contribution in percentage points to the headline index.

NSI also reported a Price Index of a Small Basket for households in the lowest-income fifth. The September flash estimate put its monthly increase at 0.2% and its annual increase at 1.9%. Within that basket, food prices were estimated to rise 0.7% from August and services 0.1%, while non-food products fell 0.7%. This indicator follows a specified basket aimed at a defined low-income group; its scope is not the same as headline CPI or HICP. It does not mean that every low-income household buys identical quantities or faces exactly the same rate in its own budget. The release provides no household-level observations. The small-basket estimate is therefore a complementary measure with its own denominator, not a replacement for Bulgaria’s national consumer inflation figures.

The central limitation is that this is provisional information. Coverage of about 90% describes the share of planned price registrations represented by data available for the flash calculation. It is not a claim that prices are known with 90% accuracy, or that the unobserved registrations cannot affect the final result. The remaining prices may change the index when they are incorporated. Monthly and annual rates use different reference periods; category rates should not be confused with index weights or contributions. Adding selected category rates does not recreate the headline CPI or HICP. The release also does not establish why prices moved, how every person’s real income changed, or what policy action should follow. This article records NSI’s 1 October estimate and its stated method. The scheduled 14 October final release is the source for settled September figures.