The World Bank Group projected Iraq’s real gross domestic product (GDP) to contract by 12.4% in 2026 and Jordan’s real GDP to grow by 2.7% in its regional outlook published on October 6. The Iraq forecast is weaker than the 3.8% contraction projected in the Bank’s April outlook, while the Jordan forecast is unchanged from April.

The Bank’s baseline assumes conflict-related disruptions persist through the end of 2026, followed by gradual normalization from early 2027. The October 2026 Iraq country profile reports oil production estimates of about 4.1 million barrels per day before the conflict, around 1.5 million in April and about 2.9 million by July; these are estimates for past output periods. The conditional projections are the GDP figures: a 12.4% contraction for Iraq and 2.7% growth for Jordan in 2026. The report notes that Iraq’s real GDP series uses constant factor prices, while Jordan’s uses constant market prices.