Statistics Netherlands (CBS) said the Dutch economic picture was less negative in its September 2026 Business Cycle Tracer than in August. The composite indicator stood at -0.23, compared with -0.26 in August. CBS calculates an unweighted average of the indicators excluding GDP and defines zero as the long-term trend. A negative reading means the composite is below that trend; it is not a negative percentage or a measure of economic contraction. Nine of the 13 indicators were still below their trend line in September.

The composite is not a single data series. It provides monthly context across previously released indicators on production, consumption, foreign trade, employment, confidence and other parts of the economy. CBS averages their distances from trend without weighting them. The -0.23 reading therefore should not be described as GDP growth, output volume, inflation or company sales. Likewise, nine indicators below trend do not mean every industry was in the same position or that the economy was contracting.

The September bulletin presented a mixed set of latest figures. The calendar-adjusted volume of goods exports rose 2.1% year on year in July 2026; household consumption volume increased 1.2%; and manufacturing output was 9% above July 2025, while rising 1.6% from June to July. A second GDP estimate showed growth of 0.6% in the second quarter from the first. These results have different reference periods and adjustment methods; they should not be added into the Tracer’s composite score.

Confidence measures also diverged. Consumer confidence rose to -33 in September, while producer confidence reached 4.2. CBS’s long-term averages are -12 for consumer confidence and -1.3 for manufacturing producer confidence, leaving consumers below and producers above their respective averages. The Tracer illustrates why indicators for different groups may not point in the same direction at once. Household opinions and manufacturers’ production expectations come from different surveys, samples and questions.

The Tracer helps explain the short-term cycle by bringing indicators together, but it does not establish causation. A less negative composite score does not guarantee that every indicator improved or that growth will accelerate in later months. Components are released on different schedules and some are revised; reference periods and seasonal or calendar adjustments matter when comparing them. CBS’s September score is a synthesis of information available for that month when released on 30 September, not a replacement for full September macroeconomic data yet to come.