{"version":"1","article":{"id":"us-q2-2026-gdp-state-economy-third-estimate","slug":"us-q2-2026-gdp-state-economy-third-estimate","language":"en","url":"https://haberpaper.com/en/news/us-q2-2026-gdp-state-economy-third-estimate","api_url":"https://haberpaper.com/api/v1/articles/us-q2-2026-gdp-state-economy-third-estimate?lang=en","title":"US second-quarter GDP growth revised to 2.2% annual rate in third estimate","summary":"BEA lifted its real GDP estimate from 1.5% to a 2.2% annual rate; the actual quarter-to-quarter increase was 0.6%. The same release showed divergent state economies.","category":"economy","region":"world","topics":[],"published_at":"2026-10-04T18:20:06+03:00","modified_at":"2026-10-04T18:39:13+03:00","publication_basis":"publication-record","event_period":"2026-06","event_period_basis":"event-or-reference-period","sources":[{"name":"U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis","url":"https://www.bea.gov/news/2026/gdp-third-estimate-industries-corporate-profits-state-gdp-and-state-personal-income-2nd","publishedAt":"2026-09-30","checkedAt":"2026-10-04"},{"name":"BEA, GDP and the National Income and Product Accounts: A Primer","url":"https://www.bea.gov/resources/methodologies/nipa-handbook/pdf/chapter-01.pdf","checkedAt":"2026-10-04"}],"translations":[{"language":"tr","url":"https://haberpaper.com/tr/news/us-q2-2026-gdp-state-economy-third-estimate","api_url":"https://haberpaper.com/api/v1/articles/us-q2-2026-gdp-state-economy-third-estimate?lang=tr"},{"language":"en","url":"https://haberpaper.com/en/news/us-q2-2026-gdp-state-economy-third-estimate","api_url":"https://haberpaper.com/api/v1/articles/us-q2-2026-gdp-state-economy-third-estimate?lang=en"},{"language":"ar","url":"https://haberpaper.com/ar/news/us-q2-2026-gdp-state-economy-third-estimate","api_url":"https://haberpaper.com/api/v1/articles/us-q2-2026-gdp-state-economy-third-estimate?lang=ar"},{"language":"fr","url":"https://haberpaper.com/fr/news/us-q2-2026-gdp-state-economy-third-estimate","api_url":"https://haberpaper.com/api/v1/articles/us-q2-2026-gdp-state-economy-third-estimate?lang=fr"},{"language":"es","url":"https://haberpaper.com/es/news/us-q2-2026-gdp-state-economy-third-estimate","api_url":"https://haberpaper.com/api/v1/articles/us-q2-2026-gdp-state-economy-third-estimate?lang=es"}],"data_types":["metrics"],"data":{"version":1,"blocks":[{"id":"q2-gdp-and-states","type":"metrics","title":{"tr":"2026 ikinci çeyrek ABD ulusal ve eyalet reel GSYH büyümesi","en":"US national and state real GDP growth, Q2 2026","ar":"نمو الناتج الحقيقي الوطني وعلى مستوى الولايات في الربع الثاني 2026","fr":"Croissance du PIB réel national et par État, T2 2026","es":"Crecimiento del PIB real nacional y estatal, T2 de 2026"},"description":{"tr":"Üçüncü tahmin, yıllıklandırılmış oranlar ve eyalet aralığı; ulusal çeyreklik gerçek hareket ayrıca belirtilir.","en":"Third estimate, annualized rates and state range; actual quarterly national movement is separately identified.","ar":"التقدير الثالث والمعدلات السنوية ونطاق الولايات؛ ويُذكر التغير الفصلي الوطني الفعلي منفصلاً.","fr":"Troisième estimation, taux annualisés et dispersion par État; la variation trimestrielle nationale effective est distincte.","es":"Tercera estimación, tasas anualizadas y rango estatal; el cambio trimestral nacional efectivo se distingue aparte."},"methodology":{"tr":"BEA oranları mevsimsel düzeltilmiş çeyrekten çeyreğe değişimin yıllıklandırılmış gösterimidir; yüzde 0,6 gerçek Q2/Q1 hareketidir. Eyalet oranları aynı konvansiyondadır. İkinci ve üçüncü tahmin veri vintage'larıdır. Dört gösterge tamamlanmış bir çeyreğe ilişkin resmî istatistiksel tahminlerdir; ileriye yönelik öngörü değildir. Bu veri sürümü yeni kaynak bilgileriyle revize edilebilir ve tahmin olarak etiketlenir.","en":"BEA rates annualize seasonally adjusted quarter-to-quarter changes; 0.6% is the actual Q2/Q1 movement. State rates use the same convention. Second and third estimates are distinct data vintages. All four indicators are official statistical estimates for a completed quarter, not forecasts. This data vintage remains subject to revision as source information improves and is labeled as an estimate.","ar":"تُسنّن معدلات المكتب التغيرات الفصلية المعدلة موسمياً؛ 0.6% هو التغير الفعلي بين الربعين. وتستخدم معدلات الولايات الاصطلاح نفسه. التقديران الثاني والثالث نسختان مختلفتان للبيانات. المؤشرات الأربعة تقديرات إحصائية رسمية لربع مكتمل، وليست توقعات مستقبلية. وتظل نسخة البيانات هذه قابلة للمراجعة مع تحسن معلومات المصادر، ولذلك تُصنّف كتقديرات.","fr":"Les taux du BEA annualisent les variations trimestrielles désaisonnalisées; 0,6 % est le mouvement effectif T2/T1. Les taux des États suivent la même convention. Les deuxième et troisième estimations sont des versions statistiques distinctes. Les quatre indicateurs sont des estimations statistiques officielles pour un trimestre achevé, et non des prévisions. Cette version peut être révisée lorsque les informations sources s’améliorent et est étiquetée comme estimation.","es":"Las tasas de la BEA anualizan cambios trimestrales ajustados; 0,6% es el movimiento efectivo T2/T1. Las tasas estatales usan la misma convención. Las estimaciones segunda y tercera son versiones estadísticas diferentes. Los cuatro indicadores son estimaciones estadísticas oficiales de un trimestre terminado, no previsiones. Esta versión puede revisarse cuando mejora la información de las fuentes y se etiqueta como estimación."},"sourceUrls":["https://www.bea.gov/news/2026/gdp-third-estimate-industries-corporate-profits-state-gdp-and-state-personal-income-2nd"],"updatedAt":"2026-10-04T15:39:13Z","items":[{"label":{"tr":"ABD reel GSYH, yıllıklandırılmış Q2 büyüme oranı","en":"US real GDP, annualized Q2 growth rate","ar":"الناتج الحقيقي الأمريكي، معدل نمو الربع الثاني السنوي","fr":"PIB réel américain, croissance annualisée du T2","es":"PIB real de EE. UU., crecimiento anualizado del T2"},"value":2.2,"unit":"percent","period":"2026-06","periodStart":"2026-04","basis":"estimate","measure":{"id":"real-gdp-quarterly-growth-annualized","unitCode":"percent","geography":"united-states","frequency":"quarterly","aggregation":"change","periodRole":"reference-period"}},{"label":{"tr":"ABD reel GSYH, çeyrekten çeyreğe artış","en":"US real GDP, quarter-to-quarter increase","ar":"الناتج الحقيقي الأمريكي، الزيادة من ربع إلى آخر","fr":"PIB réel américain, hausse d’un trimestre à l’autre","es":"PIB real de EE. UU., aumento de un trimestre a otro"},"value":0.6,"unit":"percent","period":"2026-06","periodStart":"2026-04","basis":"estimate","measure":{"id":"real-gdp-quarterly-change","unitCode":"percent","geography":"united-states","frequency":"quarterly","aggregation":"change","periodRole":"reference-period"}},{"label":{"tr":"New York reel GSYH, yıllıklandırılmış değişim","en":"New York real GDP, annualized change","ar":"الناتج الحقيقي في نيويورك، التغير السنوي","fr":"PIB réel de New York, variation annualisée","es":"PIB real de Nueva York, variación anualizada"},"value":4,"unit":"percent","period":"2026-06","periodStart":"2026-04","basis":"estimate","measure":{"id":"new-york-real-gdp-quarterly-annualized-change","unitCode":"percent","geography":"new-york","frequency":"quarterly","aggregation":"change","periodRole":"reference-period"}},{"label":{"tr":"West Virginia reel GSYH, yıllıklandırılmış değişim","en":"West Virginia real GDP, annualized change","ar":"الناتج الحقيقي في فرجينيا الغربية، التغير السنوي","fr":"PIB réel de Virginie-Occidentale, variation annualisée","es":"PIB real de Virginia Occidental, variación anualizada"},"value":-2.3,"unit":"percent","period":"2026-06","periodStart":"2026-04","basis":"estimate","measure":{"id":"west-virginia-real-gdp-quarterly-annualized-change","unitCode":"percent","geography":"west-virginia","frequency":"quarterly","aggregation":"change","periodRole":"reference-period"}}]}]},"data_compilations":[{"id":"q2-gdp-and-states","creator":{"@type":"Organization","@id":"https://haberpaper.com/#organization","name":"Haber Paper","url":"https://haberpaper.com/"},"license":{"@type":"CreativeWork","@id":"https://haberpaper.com/en/data-terms/v1#license","name":"Haber Paper Original Data Compilation License 1.0","url":"https://haberpaper.com/en/data-terms/v1"},"rights_scope":"Haber Paper original data arrangement, labels and methodology notes only; underlying source rights and permissions remain separate.","source_license_url":null}],"data_downloads":[{"id":"q2-gdp-and-states","formats":{"json":"https://haberpaper.com/api/v1/articles/us-q2-2026-gdp-state-economy-third-estimate/data/q2-gdp-and-states?lang=en&format=json","csv":"https://haberpaper.com/api/v1/articles/us-q2-2026-gdp-state-economy-third-estimate/data/q2-gdp-and-states?lang=en&format=csv"}}],"content":{"paragraphs":["The U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) put real gross domestic product growth at a 2.2% annual rate in its third estimate for 2026’s second quarter, released September 30. The second estimate had been 1.5%, so the new reading was revised up 0.7 percentage point. The annualized rate is not the same as the actual change from one quarter to the next: BEA’s technical notes also report that quarterly increase as 0.6%. Annualization expresses the three-month pace as if it continued for a year; it does not mean the economy grew 2.2% over a completed year.","The upward revision mainly reflected higher estimates for investment, consumer spending and government spending. Consumer spending, investment and exports contributed to real GDP growth; imports also rose and are subtracted in the GDP calculation. Real final sales to private domestic purchasers increased at a 4.6% annual rate. That measure combines consumer spending and private fixed investment, so it is not identical to GDP. Imports and inventory movements can affect the production total differently from spending by domestic final purchasers, making it useful to keep the measures distinct rather than treat one as a replacement for the other.","Industry details showed contributions from both private services and goods-producing businesses. Real value added rose at annual rates of 2.5% for private services-producing industries and 2.3% for private goods-producing industries; government increased less than 0.1%. Real estate and rental and leasing, information, durable-goods manufacturing, and finance and insurance were leading contributors. Transportation and warehousing, retail trade, and nondurable-goods manufacturing were offsets. These industry figures describe the composition of output, not employment, the number of firms or profits. A positive contribution from an industry does not mean every business within it expanded.","State GDP in the same release revealed a wide regional range. Real GDP increased in 44 states and the District of Columbia in the second quarter. State annualized growth rates ranged from 4.0% in New York to minus 2.3% in West Virginia. Finance and insurance led contributions in New York and Delaware, while mining was the leading source of decline in West Virginia and Wyoming. These state rates annualize the quarter’s seasonally adjusted movement; they are not cumulative growth actually realized over a full year in each state.","Current-dollar personal income also rose at a 4.7% annual rate nationally in the second quarter, increasing in 49 states and the District of Columbia. The state range extended from 6.4% growth in Wisconsin to a 4.2% decline in North Dakota. Earnings rose in 48 states and the District, while North Dakota’s earnings fell 9.3%. These are current-dollar income changes, not inflation-adjusted or per-person figures. BEA also reported nominal state personal consumption expenditure growth in every state for calendar year 2025; that separate annual result should not be confused with real quarterly GDP in 2026.","The third estimate is a revised data vintage issued as part of BEA’s annual accounts update. The update covered national and regional accounts from the first quarter of 2021 through the first quarter of 2026. For second-quarter GDP, revisions included both fixed investment and inventory investment, new and updated survey information on consumer spending, and seasonal factors for federal defense spending. The difference between the second and third estimates therefore does not mean activity itself changed after the quarter ended; the statistical estimate incorporated additional source data. Earlier quarters were also revised in the annual update.","Interpretation requires separating the annualized national rate, the actual quarterly movement and the state-level rankings. The third estimate includes more source information available after the quarter closed, but national accounts can still be revised as data improve. The release shows that an upward revision to the national total does not imply uniform growth across every state or industry. Later vintages may alter individual components again. Comparisons should therefore retain the reference period, growth convention and release vintage, rather than treating the latest decimal as a permanent measure of economic performance."],"key_points":[],"sections":[]},"text":"BEA lifted its real GDP estimate from 1.5% to a 2.2% annual rate; the actual quarter-to-quarter increase was 0.6%. The same release showed divergent state economies.\n\nThe U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) put real gross domestic product growth at a 2.2% annual rate in its third estimate for 2026’s second quarter, released September 30. The second estimate had been 1.5%, so the new reading was revised up 0.7 percentage point. The annualized rate is not the same as the actual change from one quarter to the next: BEA’s technical notes also report that quarterly increase as 0.6%. Annualization expresses the three-month pace as if it continued for a year; it does not mean the economy grew 2.2% over a completed year.\n\nThe upward revision mainly reflected higher estimates for investment, consumer spending and government spending. Consumer spending, investment and exports contributed to real GDP growth; imports also rose and are subtracted in the GDP calculation. Real final sales to private domestic purchasers increased at a 4.6% annual rate. That measure combines consumer spending and private fixed investment, so it is not identical to GDP. Imports and inventory movements can affect the production total differently from spending by domestic final purchasers, making it useful to keep the measures distinct rather than treat one as a replacement for the other.\n\nIndustry details showed contributions from both private services and goods-producing businesses. Real value added rose at annual rates of 2.5% for private services-producing industries and 2.3% for private goods-producing industries; government increased less than 0.1%. Real estate and rental and leasing, information, durable-goods manufacturing, and finance and insurance were leading contributors. Transportation and warehousing, retail trade, and nondurable-goods manufacturing were offsets. These industry figures describe the composition of output, not employment, the number of firms or profits. A positive contribution from an industry does not mean every business within it expanded.\n\nState GDP in the same release revealed a wide regional range. Real GDP increased in 44 states and the District of Columbia in the second quarter. State annualized growth rates ranged from 4.0% in New York to minus 2.3% in West Virginia. Finance and insurance led contributions in New York and Delaware, while mining was the leading source of decline in West Virginia and Wyoming. These state rates annualize the quarter’s seasonally adjusted movement; they are not cumulative growth actually realized over a full year in each state.\n\nCurrent-dollar personal income also rose at a 4.7% annual rate nationally in the second quarter, increasing in 49 states and the District of Columbia. The state range extended from 6.4% growth in Wisconsin to a 4.2% decline in North Dakota. Earnings rose in 48 states and the District, while North Dakota’s earnings fell 9.3%. These are current-dollar income changes, not inflation-adjusted or per-person figures. BEA also reported nominal state personal consumption expenditure growth in every state for calendar year 2025; that separate annual result should not be confused with real quarterly GDP in 2026.\n\nThe third estimate is a revised data vintage issued as part of BEA’s annual accounts update. The update covered national and regional accounts from the first quarter of 2021 through the first quarter of 2026. For second-quarter GDP, revisions included both fixed investment and inventory investment, new and updated survey information on consumer spending, and seasonal factors for federal defense spending. The difference between the second and third estimates therefore does not mean activity itself changed after the quarter ended; the statistical estimate incorporated additional source data. Earlier quarters were also revised in the annual update.\n\nInterpretation requires separating the annualized national rate, the actual quarterly movement and the state-level rankings. The third estimate includes more source information available after the quarter closed, but national accounts can still be revised as data improve. The release shows that an upward revision to the national total does not imply uniform growth across every state or industry. Later vintages may alter individual components again. Comparisons should therefore retain the reference period, growth convention and release vintage, rather than treating the latest decimal as a permanent measure of economic performance.\n\nThe four GDP data-card values were reclassified from observed to estimate. They are BEA statistical estimates for the completed second quarter of 2026. The values, source and first publication date are unchanged.","corrections":[{"at":"2026-10-04T18:39:13+03:00","language":"en","text":"The four GDP data-card values were reclassified from observed to estimate. They are BEA statistical estimates for the completed second quarter of 2026. The values, source and first publication date are unchanged."}],"editorial_illustration":{"kind":"symbolic-editorial-illustration","documentary":false,"scope":"section","asset_id":"economy","url":"https://haberpaper.com/assets/illustrations/economy-1536.webp","width":1536,"height":1024,"alt":"Symbolic trading harbour with a cargo ship, containers and a bridge.","language":"en"},"section_illustration":{"kind":"symbolic-editorial-illustration","documentary":false,"scope":"section","asset_id":"economy","url":"https://haberpaper.com/assets/illustrations/economy-1536.webp","width":1536,"height":1024,"alt":"Symbolic trading harbour with a cargo ship, containers and a bridge.","language":"en"}}}