{"version":"1","article":{"id":"uae-bank-liquidity-indicators-october-2026","slug":"uae-bank-liquidity-indicators-october-2026","language":"en","url":"https://haberpaper.com/en/news/uae-bank-liquidity-indicators-october-2026","api_url":"https://haberpaper.com/api/v1/articles/uae-bank-liquidity-indicators-october-2026?lang=en","title":"UAE banking-system liquidity surplus fell to AED101.4bn on 1 October","summary":"The Central Bank of the UAE’s 2 October update recorded an AED101.4bn surplus for 1 October, down from AED110.8bn on 30 September. Its forecast for the following day is a separate estimate.","category":"finance","region":"world","topics":[],"published_at":"2026-10-04T13:00:06+03:00","modified_at":"2026-10-04T13:00:06+03:00","publication_basis":"publication-record","event_period":"2026-10-01","event_period_basis":"event-or-reference-period","sources":[{"name":"Central Bank of the UAE, Daily Liquidity Indicators workbook","url":"https://centralbank.ae/media/ssibljsp/daily-liquidity-indicators-02-oct-2026.xlsx","publishedAt":"2026-10-02","checkedAt":"2026-10-04"},{"name":"Central Bank of the UAE, Daily Liquidity Indicators methodology and definitions","url":"https://centralbank.ae/en/our-operations/monetary-policy-and-domestic-markets/monetary-policy-documents/daily-liquidity-indicators/","checkedAt":"2026-10-04"},{"name":"Central Bank of the UAE, monetary policy and domestic markets definitions","url":"https://centralbank.ae/en/our-operations/monetary-policy-and-domestic-markets/","checkedAt":"2026-10-04"}],"translations":[{"language":"tr","url":"https://haberpaper.com/tr/news/uae-bank-liquidity-indicators-october-2026","api_url":"https://haberpaper.com/api/v1/articles/uae-bank-liquidity-indicators-october-2026?lang=tr"},{"language":"en","url":"https://haberpaper.com/en/news/uae-bank-liquidity-indicators-october-2026","api_url":"https://haberpaper.com/api/v1/articles/uae-bank-liquidity-indicators-october-2026?lang=en"},{"language":"ar","url":"https://haberpaper.com/ar/news/uae-bank-liquidity-indicators-october-2026","api_url":"https://haberpaper.com/api/v1/articles/uae-bank-liquidity-indicators-october-2026?lang=ar"},{"language":"fr","url":"https://haberpaper.com/fr/news/uae-bank-liquidity-indicators-october-2026","api_url":"https://haberpaper.com/api/v1/articles/uae-bank-liquidity-indicators-october-2026?lang=fr"},{"language":"es","url":"https://haberpaper.com/es/news/uae-bank-liquidity-indicators-october-2026","api_url":"https://haberpaper.com/api/v1/articles/uae-bank-liquidity-indicators-october-2026?lang=es"}],"data_types":["metrics"],"data":{"version":1,"blocks":[{"id":"daily-liquidity-stocks","type":"metrics","title":{"tr":"Günlük likidite ve parasal taban ölçümleri","en":"Daily liquidity and monetary-base measures","ar":"مقاييس السيولة والقاعدة النقدية اليومية","fr":"Mesures quotidiennes de liquidité et de base monétaire","es":"Medidas diarias de liquidez y base monetaria"},"description":{"tr":"Merkez bankası çalışma kitabında milyon AED olarak verilen gözlemler, ölçü birimi AED olacak şekilde ölçeklenmiştir.","en":"Observations reported in AED millions in the central-bank workbook are scaled to the AED unit.","ar":"حُوّلت القيم الواردة بملايين الدراهم في ملف المصرف المركزي إلى وحدة الدرهم الواحد.","fr":"Les observations du classeur, exprimées en millions d’AED, sont converties en dirhams.","es":"Los valores del libro, expresados en millones de AED, se escalan a dirhams."},"methodology":{"tr":"Günlük stok gözlemleri; likidite fazlası, toplam banka bakiyesi ve zorunlu karşılıklar kaynak tanımlarıyla aktarılmıştır. Parasal taban, merkez bankasının tanımladığı bileşenler toplamıdır. Çalışma kitabı bu tabloların ön nitelikte olduğunu bildirir.","en":"Daily stock observations reproduce the source definitions of liquidity surplus, aggregate bank balance and reserve requirements. The monetary base is the central bank’s defined aggregate. The workbook marks these tables as preliminary.","ar":"تنقل المشاهدات اليومية تعريفات المصدر لفائض السيولة والرصيد المصرفي الإجمالي ومتطلبات الاحتياطي. والقاعدة النقدية مجموع محدد لدى المصرف. ويصف الملف هذه الجداول بأنها أولية.","fr":"Les observations quotidiennes reprennent les définitions de la source pour l’excédent, le solde agrégé et les réserves obligatoires. La base monétaire est l’agrégat défini par la banque centrale. Les tableaux sont préliminaires.","es":"Las observaciones diarias reproducen las definiciones de la fuente para excedente, saldo agregado y reservas obligatorias. La base monetaria es el agregado definido por el banco central. El libro califica estas tablas de preliminares."},"sourceUrls":["https://centralbank.ae/media/ssibljsp/daily-liquidity-indicators-02-oct-2026.xlsx","https://centralbank.ae/en/our-operations/monetary-policy-and-domestic-markets/monetary-policy-documents/daily-liquidity-indicators/"],"updatedAt":"2026-10-04T06:00:03+03:00","items":[{"label":{"tr":"Likidite fazlası — 27 Eylül","en":"Liquidity surplus — 27 September","ar":"فائض السيولة — 27 سبتمبر","fr":"Excédent de liquidité — 27 septembre","es":"Excedente de liquidez — 27 de septiembre"},"value":131601079576,"unit":"AED","period":"2026-09-27","basis":"observed","measure":{"id":"liquidity-surplus","unitCode":"aed","geography":"united-arab-emirates","frequency":"daily","aggregation":"stock","periodRole":"reference-period"}},{"label":{"tr":"Likidite fazlası — 30 Eylül","en":"Liquidity surplus — 30 September","ar":"فائض السيولة — 30 سبتمبر","fr":"Excédent de liquidité — 30 septembre","es":"Excedente de liquidez — 30 de septiembre"},"value":110825122864,"unit":"AED","period":"2026-09-30","basis":"observed","measure":{"id":"liquidity-surplus","unitCode":"aed","geography":"united-arab-emirates","frequency":"daily","aggregation":"stock","periodRole":"reference-period"}},{"label":{"tr":"Likidite fazlası — 1 Ekim","en":"Liquidity surplus — 1 October","ar":"فائض السيولة — 1 أكتوبر","fr":"Excédent de liquidité — 1er octobre","es":"Excedente de liquidez — 1 de octubre"},"value":101433589560,"unit":"AED","period":"2026-10-01","basis":"observed","measure":{"id":"liquidity-surplus","unitCode":"aed","geography":"united-arab-emirates","frequency":"daily","aggregation":"stock","periodRole":"reference-period"}},{"label":{"tr":"Toplam banka bakiyesi — 1 Ekim","en":"Aggregate bank balance — 1 October","ar":"الرصيد المصرفي الإجمالي — 1 أكتوبر","fr":"Solde bancaire agrégé — 1er octobre","es":"Saldo bancario agregado — 1 de octubre"},"value":369136027180,"unit":"AED","period":"2026-10-01","basis":"observed","measure":{"id":"aggregate-bank-balance","unitCode":"aed","geography":"united-arab-emirates","frequency":"daily","aggregation":"stock","periodRole":"reference-period"}},{"label":{"tr":"Zorunlu karşılıklar — 1 Ekim","en":"Reserve requirements — 1 October","ar":"متطلبات الاحتياطي — 1 أكتوبر","fr":"Réserves obligatoires — 1er octobre","es":"Requisitos de reservas — 1 de octubre"},"value":267702437620,"unit":"AED","period":"2026-10-01","basis":"observed","measure":{"id":"reserve-requirements","unitCode":"aed","geography":"united-arab-emirates","frequency":"daily","aggregation":"stock","periodRole":"reference-period"}},{"label":{"tr":"Parasal taban — 1 Ekim","en":"Monetary base — 1 October","ar":"القاعدة النقدية — 1 أكتوبر","fr":"Base monétaire — 1er octobre","es":"Base monétaire — 1 de octubre"},"value":795072220545,"unit":"AED","period":"2026-10-01","basis":"observed","measure":{"id":"monetary-base","unitCode":"aed","geography":"united-arab-emirates","frequency":"daily","aggregation":"stock","periodRole":"reference-period"}}]},{"id":"liquidity-surplus-forecast","type":"metrics","title":{"tr":"2 Ekim gün sonu likidite fazlası tahmini","en":"2 October end-of-day liquidity-surplus forecast","ar":"توقع فائض السيولة في نهاية يوم 2 أكتوبر","fr":"Prévision de l’excédent de liquidité en fin de journée du 2 octobre","es":"Previsión del excedente de liquidez al cierre del 2 de octubre"},"description":{"tr":"Tahmin, önceki günün gözlenen bakiyesinden üretilmiştir; gerçekleşme verisi değildir.","en":"The forecast uses the previous day’s observed balance; it is not an observed outcome.","ar":"يستند التوقع إلى الرصيد المرصود في اليوم السابق، وليس نتيجة فعلية.","fr":"La prévision part du solde observé la veille ; ce n’est pas un résultat observé.","es":"La previsión parte del saldo observado el día anterior; no es un resultado observado."},"methodology":{"tr":"Merkez bankasının 2 Ekim itibarıyla yayımladığı ortalama tahmin ve yüzde 95 güven aralığı alt/üst sınırları, kaynakta milyon AED olarak verildiği için AED’ye çevrilmiştir. Modelin tüm özellikleri çalışma kitabında açıklanmıyor.","en":"The central bank’s mean forecast and 95% confidence bounds, current as of 2 October, are converted from AED millions to AED. The workbook does not disclose the full model specification.","ar":"حُوّل متوسط التوقع وحدا مجال الثقة البالغ 95 بالمئة، كما في 2 أكتوبر، من ملايين الدراهم إلى الدراهم. ولا يوضح الملف مواصفات النموذج كاملة.","fr":"La moyenne prévisionnelle et les bornes de confiance à 95 %, à jour au 2 octobre, sont converties de millions d’AED en AED. Le classeur ne détaille pas l’ensemble du modèle.","es":"La media prevista y los límites de confianza del 95 %, vigentes al 2 de octubre, se convierten de millones de AED a AED. El libro no publica toda la especificación del modelo."},"sourceUrls":["https://centralbank.ae/media/ssibljsp/daily-liquidity-indicators-02-oct-2026.xlsx","https://centralbank.ae/en/our-operations/monetary-policy-and-domestic-markets/monetary-policy-documents/daily-liquidity-indicators/"],"updatedAt":"2026-10-04T06:00:03+03:00","items":[{"label":{"tr":"Tahmin ortalaması","en":"Forecast mean","ar":"متوسط التوقع","fr":"Moyenne de la prévision","es":"Media de la previsión"},"value":100951600000,"unit":"AED","period":"2026-10-02","basis":"forecast","measure":{"id":"liquidity-surplus-forecast-mean","unitCode":"aed","geography":"united-arab-emirates","frequency":"daily","aggregation":"stock","periodRole":"reference-period"}},{"label":{"tr":"Alt sınır — yüzde 95 güven aralığı","en":"Lower bound — 95% confidence interval","ar":"الحد الأدنى — مجال ثقة 95 بالمئة","fr":"Borne basse — intervalle de confiance à 95 %","es":"Límite inferior — intervalo de confianza del 95 %"},"value":94204120000,"unit":"AED","period":"2026-10-02","basis":"forecast","measure":{"id":"liquidity-surplus-forecast-lower-95","unitCode":"aed","geography":"united-arab-emirates","frequency":"daily","aggregation":"stock","periodRole":"reference-period"}},{"label":{"tr":"Üst sınır — yüzde 95 güven aralığı","en":"Upper bound — 95% confidence interval","ar":"الحد الأعلى — مجال ثقة 95 بالمئة","fr":"Borne haute — intervalle de confiance à 95 %","es":"Límite superior — intervalo de confianza del 95 %"},"value":107699100000,"unit":"AED","period":"2026-10-02","basis":"forecast","measure":{"id":"liquidity-surplus-forecast-upper-95","unitCode":"aed","geography":"united-arab-emirates","frequency":"daily","aggregation":"stock","periodRole":"reference-period"}}]},{"id":"mbill-constant-maturity-yields","type":"metrics","title":{"tr":"Sabit vadeli M-Bill tahmini getirileri","en":"Estimated constant-maturity M-Bill yields","ar":"عوائد أذون النقدية المقدرة لآجال ثابتة","fr":"Rendements estimés des M-Bills à maturités constantes","es":"Rendimientos estimados de M-Bills a vencimiento constante"},"description":{"tr":"Merkez bankasının 1 Ekim tarihli tahmini bir, üç ve altı aylık getiri noktaları.","en":"The central bank’s estimated one-, three- and six-month yield points dated 1 October.","ar":"نقاط العائد المقدرة لشهر وثلاثة وستة أشهر لدى المصرف المركزي بتاريخ 1 أكتوبر.","fr":"Points de rendement estimés à un, trois et six mois par la banque centrale au 1er octobre.","es":"Puntos de rendimiento estimados a uno, tres y seis meses por el banco central al 1 de octubre."},"methodology":{"tr":"Tahminler, birincil bayilerin en son ihraç edilen M-Bill’ler için saat 12.00’de verdiği en düşük teklif getirilerinden forward monotone convex spline yöntemiyle türetilir; doğrudan işlem görmüş sabit vadeli tahvil getirisi değildir.","en":"Estimates are derived from primary dealers’ lowest bid yields at noon for the latest M-Bill auctions using a forward monotone-convex spline; they are not directly traded constant-maturity securities.","ar":"تُشتق التقديرات من أدنى عوائد عروض المتعاملين الأساسيين عند الظهر لأحدث مزادات أذون النقدية باستخدام استيفاء محدب رتيب أمامي؛ وليست عوائد أوراق متداولة مباشرة بآجال ثابتة.","fr":"Les estimations sont dérivées des offres les plus basses des primary dealers à midi pour les dernières adjudications, au moyen d’une spline monotone convexe vers l’avant ; elles ne correspondent pas à des titres à maturité constante directement négociés.","es":"Las estimaciones se derivan de las ofertas más bajas de operadores primarios al mediodía para las últimas subastas, mediante una spline monótona convexa hacia delante; no son rendimientos de títulos a vencimiento constante negociados directamente."},"sourceUrls":["https://centralbank.ae/media/ssibljsp/daily-liquidity-indicators-02-oct-2026.xlsx","https://centralbank.ae/en/our-operations/monetary-policy-and-domestic-markets/monetary-policy-documents/daily-liquidity-indicators/"],"updatedAt":"2026-10-04T06:00:03+03:00","items":[{"label":{"tr":"Bir aylık sabit vade getirisi","en":"One-month constant-maturity yield","ar":"عائد أجل شهر","fr":"Rendement à un mois","es":"Rendimiento a un mes"},"value":4.15123073463461,"unit":"percent","period":"2026-10-01","basis":"estimate","measure":{"id":"mbill-constant-maturity-yield-one-month","unitCode":"percent","geography":"united-arab-emirates","frequency":"daily","aggregation":"rate","periodRole":"reference-period"}},{"label":{"tr":"Üç aylık sabit vade getirisi","en":"Three-month constant-maturity yield","ar":"عائد أجل ثلاثة أشهر","fr":"Rendement à trois mois","es":"Rendimiento a tres meses"},"value":4.38656134026552,"unit":"percent","period":"2026-10-01","basis":"estimate","measure":{"id":"mbill-constant-maturity-yield-three-month","unitCode":"percent","geography":"united-arab-emirates","frequency":"daily","aggregation":"rate","periodRole":"reference-period"}},{"label":{"tr":"Altı aylık sabit vade getirisi","en":"Six-month constant-maturity yield","ar":"عائد أجل ستة أشهر","fr":"Rendement à six mois","es":"Rendimiento a seis meses"},"value":4.58307904496367,"unit":"percent","period":"2026-10-01","basis":"estimate","measure":{"id":"mbill-constant-maturity-yield-six-month","unitCode":"percent","geography":"united-arab-emirates","frequency":"daily","aggregation":"rate","periodRole":"reference-period"}}]}]},"data_compilations":[{"id":"daily-liquidity-stocks","creator":{"@type":"Organization","@id":"https://haberpaper.com/#organization","name":"Haber Paper","url":"https://haberpaper.com/"},"license":{"@type":"CreativeWork","@id":"https://haberpaper.com/en/data-terms/v1#license","name":"Haber Paper Original Data Compilation License 1.0","url":"https://haberpaper.com/en/data-terms/v1"},"rights_scope":"Haber Paper original data arrangement, labels and methodology notes only; 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underlying source rights and permissions remain separate.","source_license_url":null}],"data_downloads":[{"id":"daily-liquidity-stocks","formats":{"json":"https://haberpaper.com/api/v1/articles/uae-bank-liquidity-indicators-october-2026/data/daily-liquidity-stocks?lang=en&format=json","csv":"https://haberpaper.com/api/v1/articles/uae-bank-liquidity-indicators-october-2026/data/daily-liquidity-stocks?lang=en&format=csv"}},{"id":"liquidity-surplus-forecast","formats":{"json":"https://haberpaper.com/api/v1/articles/uae-bank-liquidity-indicators-october-2026/data/liquidity-surplus-forecast?lang=en&format=json","csv":"https://haberpaper.com/api/v1/articles/uae-bank-liquidity-indicators-october-2026/data/liquidity-surplus-forecast?lang=en&format=csv"}},{"id":"mbill-constant-maturity-yields","formats":{"json":"https://haberpaper.com/api/v1/articles/uae-bank-liquidity-indicators-october-2026/data/mbill-constant-maturity-yields?lang=en&format=json","csv":"https://haberpaper.com/api/v1/articles/uae-bank-liquidity-indicators-october-2026/data/mbill-constant-maturity-yields?lang=en&format=csv"}}],"content":{"paragraphs":["The banking system’s liquidity surplus stood at AED101.434 billion at the close of 1 October, according to the Central Bank of the UAE’s Daily Liquidity Indicators workbook published on 2 October 2026. That was about AED9.392 billion below the daily stock of AED110.825 billion recorded on 30 September. In the workbook’s definition, liquidity surplus is the aggregate balance held by banks at the central bank minus statutory reserve requirements. It is therefore not the same as cash freely available to banks, household savings, or the amount of credit extended to the economy.","On 1 October, the aggregate balance was AED369.136 billion and reserve requirements were AED267.702 billion. The aggregate balance combines funds in banks’ reserve accounts with amounts placed in the Overnight Deposit Facility and Overnight Murabaha Facility. The central bank says balances in these facilities are remunerated under its policy-rate framework; the Murabaha facility also reflects the cost of the associated commodity transactions. The workbook recorded AED132.168 billion in the overnight deposit facility, AED22.881 billion in the overnight Murabaha facility and AED214.087 billion in reserve accounts. Together, these three components make up the aggregate balance shown in the daily series.","The workbook’s separate monetary-base table put the UAE monetary base at AED795.072 billion on 1 October. The central bank defines the monetary base as issued currency, current-account balances of licensed financial institutions at the central bank, and outstanding securities and financial instruments issued by the central bank. Its component table showed AED184.162 billion in currency issued, AED267.702 billion in reserve requirements, AED101.434 billion in liquidity surplus, AED240.652 billion in outstanding central-bank securities and AED1.122 billion in excess reserves and other balances. These are components of a defined aggregate, not independent new money flows that should be added and interpreted as separate transactions.","The daily observations show how balances can move across days and facilities. The recorded liquidity surplus was AED131.601 billion on 27 September, AED110.825 billion on 30 September and AED101.434 billion on 1 October. That sequence describes a decline over a short interval; by itself it does not establish a persistent contraction, a credit squeeze or financial stress. The table also reported statutory reserve ratios of 14 percent for demand deposits and 1 percent for time deposits on those dates. The reserve-maintenance period was on day nine on 1 October, useful operational context when comparing daily readings.","For 2 October, the workbook provides a forecast rather than an observed result. It uses the previous day’s aggregate balance of AED369.136 billion and reserve requirements of AED267.702 billion, giving an observed starting surplus of AED101.434 billion. The mean forecast for end-of-day liquidity surplus was AED100.952 billion, with a 95 percent confidence interval from AED94.204 billion to AED107.699 billion. These are model estimates for the next day, not a measurement of what actually occurred on 2 October. The source reports a previous-business-day forecast error of AED1.151 billion and explains that a positive error means the forecast was higher than the realized figure.","The workbook also lists constant-maturity M-Bill yields for 1 October: 4.151 percent for one month, 4.387 percent for three months and 4.583 percent for six months. The central bank’s method note says these estimates are derived from the lowest bid yields quoted by primary dealers at noon on each trading day for the most recently auctioned M-Bills. A forward monotone-convex spline is used to estimate yields at constant maturities from observed tenors. These figures should not be mistaken for the directly observed yield of a security with precisely each stated remaining term. They provide a market-pricing indicator alongside the daily balance-sheet data.","The workbook explicitly warns that liquidity and monetary-base data in its tables are preliminary and may differ from values published in other reports. The secondary-market M-Bills volume section has a different time basis: it reports monthly flows, with total September volume of AED18.729 billion, rather than daily balances. Those measures should not be treated as if they were observations of the same kind or frequency. The report is designed to show banking-system liquidity, central-bank operations and selected market indicators. It does not, on its own, measure bank profitability, credit quality, financing conditions across the real economy or household saving behaviour.","The most defensible interpretation is therefore a dated snapshot of banks’ balance buffer above their reserve requirements at the central bank, together with its day-to-day movement. The fall between 30 September and 1 October is directly visible in the table. Explaining why it happened requires examining the daily contribution of central-bank operations, government and other accounts, net foreign assets and currency issued, which the workbook groups under autonomous factors and monetary operations. A single observation cannot establish cause. The 2 October forecast should also remain clearly labelled as a forecast. Comparing it with later realized values would provide a more appropriate basis for judging how well the estimate was calibrated.","This distinction between a stock, a flow and a forecast matters for anyone reading the release. The daily surplus is a stock at a point in time; changes in aggregate balances and monetary operations are flows over the day; and the next-day range is a model output with stated uncertainty. The central bank publishes all three in one workbook, but their proximity does not make them interchangeable. The 95 percent interval is not a guarantee that the eventual observation must fall inside it, and the source does not publish enough here to infer the model’s full specification. Readers can use the values to track near-term liquidity conditions while avoiding claims about broader credit availability or the health of individual banks without separate evidence."],"key_points":[],"sections":[]},"text":"The Central Bank of the UAE’s 2 October update recorded an AED101.4bn surplus for 1 October, down from AED110.8bn on 30 September. Its forecast for the following day is a separate estimate.\n\nThe banking system’s liquidity surplus stood at AED101.434 billion at the close of 1 October, according to the Central Bank of the UAE’s Daily Liquidity Indicators workbook published on 2 October 2026. That was about AED9.392 billion below the daily stock of AED110.825 billion recorded on 30 September. In the workbook’s definition, liquidity surplus is the aggregate balance held by banks at the central bank minus statutory reserve requirements. It is therefore not the same as cash freely available to banks, household savings, or the amount of credit extended to the economy.\n\nOn 1 October, the aggregate balance was AED369.136 billion and reserve requirements were AED267.702 billion. The aggregate balance combines funds in banks’ reserve accounts with amounts placed in the Overnight Deposit Facility and Overnight Murabaha Facility. The central bank says balances in these facilities are remunerated under its policy-rate framework; the Murabaha facility also reflects the cost of the associated commodity transactions. The workbook recorded AED132.168 billion in the overnight deposit facility, AED22.881 billion in the overnight Murabaha facility and AED214.087 billion in reserve accounts. Together, these three components make up the aggregate balance shown in the daily series.\n\nThe workbook’s separate monetary-base table put the UAE monetary base at AED795.072 billion on 1 October. The central bank defines the monetary base as issued currency, current-account balances of licensed financial institutions at the central bank, and outstanding securities and financial instruments issued by the central bank. Its component table showed AED184.162 billion in currency issued, AED267.702 billion in reserve requirements, AED101.434 billion in liquidity surplus, AED240.652 billion in outstanding central-bank securities and AED1.122 billion in excess reserves and other balances. These are components of a defined aggregate, not independent new money flows that should be added and interpreted as separate transactions.\n\nThe daily observations show how balances can move across days and facilities. The recorded liquidity surplus was AED131.601 billion on 27 September, AED110.825 billion on 30 September and AED101.434 billion on 1 October. That sequence describes a decline over a short interval; by itself it does not establish a persistent contraction, a credit squeeze or financial stress. The table also reported statutory reserve ratios of 14 percent for demand deposits and 1 percent for time deposits on those dates. The reserve-maintenance period was on day nine on 1 October, useful operational context when comparing daily readings.\n\nFor 2 October, the workbook provides a forecast rather than an observed result. It uses the previous day’s aggregate balance of AED369.136 billion and reserve requirements of AED267.702 billion, giving an observed starting surplus of AED101.434 billion. The mean forecast for end-of-day liquidity surplus was AED100.952 billion, with a 95 percent confidence interval from AED94.204 billion to AED107.699 billion. These are model estimates for the next day, not a measurement of what actually occurred on 2 October. The source reports a previous-business-day forecast error of AED1.151 billion and explains that a positive error means the forecast was higher than the realized figure.\n\nThe workbook also lists constant-maturity M-Bill yields for 1 October: 4.151 percent for one month, 4.387 percent for three months and 4.583 percent for six months. The central bank’s method note says these estimates are derived from the lowest bid yields quoted by primary dealers at noon on each trading day for the most recently auctioned M-Bills. A forward monotone-convex spline is used to estimate yields at constant maturities from observed tenors. These figures should not be mistaken for the directly observed yield of a security with precisely each stated remaining term. They provide a market-pricing indicator alongside the daily balance-sheet data.\n\nThe workbook explicitly warns that liquidity and monetary-base data in its tables are preliminary and may differ from values published in other reports. The secondary-market M-Bills volume section has a different time basis: it reports monthly flows, with total September volume of AED18.729 billion, rather than daily balances. Those measures should not be treated as if they were observations of the same kind or frequency. The report is designed to show banking-system liquidity, central-bank operations and selected market indicators. It does not, on its own, measure bank profitability, credit quality, financing conditions across the real economy or household saving behaviour.\n\nThe most defensible interpretation is therefore a dated snapshot of banks’ balance buffer above their reserve requirements at the central bank, together with its day-to-day movement. The fall between 30 September and 1 October is directly visible in the table. Explaining why it happened requires examining the daily contribution of central-bank operations, government and other accounts, net foreign assets and currency issued, which the workbook groups under autonomous factors and monetary operations. A single observation cannot establish cause. The 2 October forecast should also remain clearly labelled as a forecast. Comparing it with later realized values would provide a more appropriate basis for judging how well the estimate was calibrated.\n\nThis distinction between a stock, a flow and a forecast matters for anyone reading the release. The daily surplus is a stock at a point in time; changes in aggregate balances and monetary operations are flows over the day; and the next-day range is a model output with stated uncertainty. The central bank publishes all three in one workbook, but their proximity does not make them interchangeable. The 95 percent interval is not a guarantee that the eventual observation must fall inside it, and the source does not publish enough here to infer the model’s full specification. Readers can use the values to track near-term liquidity conditions while avoiding claims about broader credit availability or the health of individual banks without separate evidence.","corrections":[],"editorial_illustration":{"kind":"symbolic-editorial-illustration","documentary":false,"scope":"section","asset_id":"finance","url":"https://haberpaper.com/assets/illustrations/finance-1536.webp","width":1536,"height":1024,"alt":"Symbolic financial system with a vault door, columns and unmarked coins.","language":"en"},"section_illustration":{"kind":"symbolic-editorial-illustration","documentary":false,"scope":"section","asset_id":"finance","url":"https://haberpaper.com/assets/illustrations/finance-1536.webp","width":1536,"height":1024,"alt":"Symbolic financial system with a vault door, columns and unmarked coins.","language":"en"}}}