{"version":"1","article":{"id":"russia-september-inflation-expectations-cbr","slug":"russia-september-inflation-expectations-cbr","language":"en","url":"https://haberpaper.com/en/news/russia-september-inflation-expectations-cbr","api_url":"https://haberpaper.com/api/v1/articles/russia-september-inflation-expectations-cbr?lang=en","title":"Russian households’ 12-month inflation expectations rose to 14.2% in September","summary":"In the Bank of Russia’s September survey, household expectations reached 14.2%; firms’ expected price growth over the next three months was 7% annualised.","category":"economy","region":"world","topics":[],"published_at":"2026-10-10T15:42:15+03:00","modified_at":"2026-10-10T15:42:15+03:00","publication_basis":"publication-record","event_period":"2026-10-06","event_period_basis":"event-or-reference-period","sources":[{"name":"Bank of Russia","url":"https://cbr.ru/analytics/dkp/inflationary_expectations/Infl_exp_26-09/","checkedAt":"2026-10-10","publishedAt":"2026-10-06"}],"translations":[{"language":"tr","url":"https://haberpaper.com/tr/news/russia-september-inflation-expectations-cbr","api_url":"https://haberpaper.com/api/v1/articles/russia-september-inflation-expectations-cbr?lang=tr"},{"language":"en","url":"https://haberpaper.com/en/news/russia-september-inflation-expectations-cbr","api_url":"https://haberpaper.com/api/v1/articles/russia-september-inflation-expectations-cbr?lang=en"},{"language":"ar","url":"https://haberpaper.com/ar/news/russia-september-inflation-expectations-cbr","api_url":"https://haberpaper.com/api/v1/articles/russia-september-inflation-expectations-cbr?lang=ar"},{"language":"fr","url":"https://haberpaper.com/fr/news/russia-september-inflation-expectations-cbr","api_url":"https://haberpaper.com/api/v1/articles/russia-september-inflation-expectations-cbr?lang=fr"},{"language":"es","url":"https://haberpaper.com/es/news/russia-september-inflation-expectations-cbr","api_url":"https://haberpaper.com/api/v1/articles/russia-september-inflation-expectations-cbr?lang=es"}],"data_types":["metrics"],"data":{"version":1,"blocks":[{"id":"russia-september-inflation-expectations-cbr-official-indicators","type":"metrics","title":{"tr":"Rusya’da hanelerin 12 aylık enflasyon beklentisi eylülde yüzde 14,2’ye çıktı","en":"Russian households’ 12-month inflation expectations rose to 14.2% in September","ar":"ارتفعت توقعات الأسر الروسية للتضخم خلال 12 شهراً إلى 14.2% في سبتمبر","fr":"Les anticipations d’inflation des ménages russes sur 12 mois ont atteint 14,2 % en septembre","es":"Las expectativas de inflación de los hogares rusos a 12 meses subieron al 14,2 % en septiembre"},"description":{"tr":"Resmî kaynağın eylül verileri ve ölçüm kapsamı.","en":"September figures and measurement scope in the official release.","ar":"بيانات سبتمبر ونطاق القياس في المصدر الرسمي.","fr":"Données de septembre et champ de mesure de la publication officielle.","es":"Datos de septiembre y alcance de la medición en la publicación oficial."},"methodology":{"tr":"Kaynağın gözlem, anket, beklenti ve tahmin ayrımları korunmuştur; çevrim yapılmamıştır.","en":"The source distinctions among observations, surveys, expectations and forecasts are preserved; no conversion is made.","ar":"حُفظ التمييز في المصدر بين الملاحظات والمسوح والتوقعات والتنبؤات؛ ولم تُجر تحويلات.","fr":"Les distinctions de la source entre observations, enquêtes, anticipations et prévisions sont conservées ; aucune conversion n’est faite.","es":"Se conservan las distinciones de la fuente entre observaciones, encuestas, expectativas y previsiones; no se hacen conversiones."},"sourceUrls":["https://cbr.ru/analytics/dkp/inflationary_expectations/Infl_exp_26-09/"],"updatedAt":"2026-10-10T12:05:31Z","items":[{"label":{"en":"Household 12-month inflation expectation","tr":"Hanelerin 12 aylık enflasyon beklentisi","ar":"توقعات الأسر للتضخم خلال 12 شهراً","fr":"Anticipation d’inflation des ménages à 12 mois","es":"Expectativa de inflación de hogares a 12 meses"},"value":14.2,"unit":"percent","period":"2026-09","basis":"observed","measure":{"id":"russia-september-inflation-expectations-cbr-household-12-month-inflation-expectation","unitCode":"percent","geography":"russia","frequency":"monthly","aggregation":"rate","periodRole":"reference-period"}},{"label":{"en":"Household five-year inflation expectation","tr":"Hanelerin beş yıllık enflasyon beklentisi","ar":"توقعات الأسر للتضخم خلال خمس سنوات","fr":"Anticipation d’inflation des ménages à cinq ans","es":"Expectativa de inflación de hogares a cinco años"},"value":10.7,"unit":"percent","period":"2026-09","basis":"observed","measure":{"id":"russia-september-inflation-expectations-cbr-household-five-year-inflation-expectation","unitCode":"percent","geography":"russia","frequency":"monthly","aggregation":"rate","periodRole":"reference-period"}},{"label":{"en":"Household observed annual inflation","tr":"Hanelerin algıladığı yıllık enflasyon","ar":"التضخم السنوي الذي ترصده الأسر","fr":"Inflation annuelle perçue par les ménages","es":"Inflación anual percibida por los hogares"},"value":15.1,"unit":"percent","period":"2026-09","basis":"observed","measure":{"id":"russia-september-inflation-expectations-cbr-household-observed-annual-inflation","unitCode":"percent","geography":"russia","frequency":"monthly","aggregation":"rate","periodRole":"reference-period"}},{"label":{"en":"Firms’ annualized expected price growth in next three months","tr":"Şirketlerin gelecek üç ay için yıllıklandırılmış fiyat beklentisi","ar":"زيادة الأسعار السنوية المتوقعة للشركات خلال الأشهر الثلاثة المقبلة","fr":"Hausse annualisée attendue par les entreprises sur trois mois","es":"Aumento anualizado esperado por empresas a tres meses"},"value":7,"unit":"percent","period":"2026-09","basis":"estimate","measure":{"id":"russia-september-inflation-expectations-cbr-firms-annualized-expected-price-growth-in-next-thr","unitCode":"percent","geography":"russia","frequency":"monthly","aggregation":"rate","periodRole":"reference-period"}}]}]},"data_compilations":[{"id":"russia-september-inflation-expectations-cbr-official-indicators","creator":{"@type":"Organization","@id":"https://haberpaper.com/#organization","name":"Haber Paper","url":"https://haberpaper.com/"},"license":{"@type":"CreativeWork","@id":"https://haberpaper.com/en/data-terms/v1#license","name":"Haber Paper Original Data Compilation License 1.0","url":"https://haberpaper.com/en/data-terms/v1"},"rights_scope":"Haber Paper original data arrangement, labels and methodology notes only; underlying source rights and permissions remain separate.","source_license_url":null}],"data_downloads":[{"id":"russia-september-inflation-expectations-cbr-official-indicators","formats":{"json":"https://haberpaper.com/api/v1/articles/russia-september-inflation-expectations-cbr/data/russia-september-inflation-expectations-cbr-official-indicators?lang=en&format=json","csv":"https://haberpaper.com/api/v1/articles/russia-september-inflation-expectations-cbr/data/russia-september-inflation-expectations-cbr-official-indicators?lang=en&format=csv"}}],"content":{"paragraphs":["The Bank of Russia published its September inflation expectations and consumer sentiment review on 6 October 2026. The median household expectation for inflation over the next 12 months rose to 14.2%, from 13.7% in August. This is a survey result, not realized inflation. It measures households’ forward-looking assessment of prices and is conceptually different from the official consumer price index.","Household expectations for inflation five years ahead declined to 10.7% in September. The same review put perceived annual inflation at 15.1%. The distinction between expectations and perceived past price growth matters: one is a forward-looking response, the other is respondents’ retrospective assessment. These are median survey measures; they do not represent every household’s forecast or determine the future outcome of official inflation.","The consumer sentiment index increased in September. The Bank said the improvement was mainly due to more positive expectations among respondents, while assessments of current conditions improved less. Even after rising, the index remained below its 2023–2025 levels. The share of respondents who said they preferred saving rather than spending free money increased to 52.9%. These survey results do not directly measure all consumer behavior or actual spending volumes.","Firms’ price expectations also rose overall in September. In the Bank’s monitoring survey, expectations increased in manufacturing, services and construction, declined in agriculture and trade, and were almost unchanged in transportation and storage. Firms’ expected average selling-price growth over the next three months, seasonally adjusted and expressed at an annualized rate, rose to 7.0%. This is not a confirmed price increase for the next quarter; it is an annualized measure of companies’ stated expectations.","Alongside survey expectations, the report reiterated the Bank’s forecast for annual inflation of 6–7% in 2026. It expects inflation to be at target in 2027 and beyond, taking monetary policy into account. This is the central bank’s forecast and conditional assessment, not an observed outcome or guarantee. The 14.2% household expectation and the Bank’s 6–7% forecast refer to different measures and horizons.","The report identifies the sources behind its measures: inFOM for the household survey and Rosstat for official price statistics; business price expectations come from the Bank of Russia’s own monitoring survey. Survey questions and samples therefore differ from the official price statistics. The Bank’s review summarizes the relevant survey findings, and the figures in this article are not described as official consumer-price changes.","A single September reading does not establish that expectations have risen persistently or that consumer demand has increased. Expectations, perceptions and the sentiment index are separate monthly survey series. The direction of realized inflation is measured in later official CPI releases, while actual spending requires other statistics. The percentages here come from the Bank’s September review published on 6 October. Survey findings, forecasts and targets are explicitly kept distinct."],"key_points":[],"sections":[]},"text":"In the Bank of Russia’s September survey, household expectations reached 14.2%; firms’ expected price growth over the next three months was 7% annualised.\n\nThe Bank of Russia published its September inflation expectations and consumer sentiment review on 6 October 2026. The median household expectation for inflation over the next 12 months rose to 14.2%, from 13.7% in August. This is a survey result, not realized inflation. It measures households’ forward-looking assessment of prices and is conceptually different from the official consumer price index.\n\nHousehold expectations for inflation five years ahead declined to 10.7% in September. The same review put perceived annual inflation at 15.1%. The distinction between expectations and perceived past price growth matters: one is a forward-looking response, the other is respondents’ retrospective assessment. These are median survey measures; they do not represent every household’s forecast or determine the future outcome of official inflation.\n\nThe consumer sentiment index increased in September. The Bank said the improvement was mainly due to more positive expectations among respondents, while assessments of current conditions improved less. Even after rising, the index remained below its 2023–2025 levels. The share of respondents who said they preferred saving rather than spending free money increased to 52.9%. These survey results do not directly measure all consumer behavior or actual spending volumes.\n\nFirms’ price expectations also rose overall in September. In the Bank’s monitoring survey, expectations increased in manufacturing, services and construction, declined in agriculture and trade, and were almost unchanged in transportation and storage. Firms’ expected average selling-price growth over the next three months, seasonally adjusted and expressed at an annualized rate, rose to 7.0%. This is not a confirmed price increase for the next quarter; it is an annualized measure of companies’ stated expectations.\n\nAlongside survey expectations, the report reiterated the Bank’s forecast for annual inflation of 6–7% in 2026. It expects inflation to be at target in 2027 and beyond, taking monetary policy into account. This is the central bank’s forecast and conditional assessment, not an observed outcome or guarantee. The 14.2% household expectation and the Bank’s 6–7% forecast refer to different measures and horizons.\n\nThe report identifies the sources behind its measures: inFOM for the household survey and Rosstat for official price statistics; business price expectations come from the Bank of Russia’s own monitoring survey. Survey questions and samples therefore differ from the official price statistics. The Bank’s review summarizes the relevant survey findings, and the figures in this article are not described as official consumer-price changes.\n\nA single September reading does not establish that expectations have risen persistently or that consumer demand has increased. Expectations, perceptions and the sentiment index are separate monthly survey series. The direction of realized inflation is measured in later official CPI releases, while actual spending requires other statistics. The percentages here come from the Bank’s September review published on 6 October. Survey findings, forecasts and targets are explicitly kept distinct.","corrections":[],"editorial_illustration":{"kind":"symbolic-editorial-illustration","documentary":false,"scope":"section","asset_id":"economy","url":"https://haberpaper.com/assets/illustrations/economy-1536.webp","width":1536,"height":1024,"alt":"Symbolic trading harbour with a cargo ship, containers and a bridge.","language":"en"},"section_illustration":{"kind":"symbolic-editorial-illustration","documentary":false,"scope":"section","asset_id":"economy","url":"https://haberpaper.com/assets/illustrations/economy-1536.webp","width":1536,"height":1024,"alt":"Symbolic trading harbour with a cargo ship, containers and a bridge.","language":"en"}}}