{"version":"1","article":{"id":"new-zealand-extreme-rainfall-share-to-2025","slug":"new-zealand-extreme-rainfall-share-to-2025","language":"en","url":"https://haberpaper.com/en/news/new-zealand-extreme-rainfall-share-to-2025","api_url":"https://haberpaper.com/api/v1/articles/new-zealand-extreme-rainfall-share-to-2025?lang=en","title":"Extreme-rainfall share very likely rose at 11 New Zealand sites","summary":"In Stats NZ’s 1960–2025 assessment, the share of annual rainfall from very wet days very likely increased at 11 of 30 sites and decreased at three.","category":"economy","region":"world","topics":[],"published_at":"2026-10-04T13:00:06+03:00","modified_at":"2026-10-04T13:00:06+03:00","publication_basis":"publication-record","event_period":"2025-12-31","event_period_basis":"event-or-reference-period","sources":[{"name":"Stats NZ, Extreme rainfall: Data to 2025","url":"https://www.stats.govt.nz/indicators/extreme-rainfall-data-to-2025/","publishedAt":"2026-10-02","checkedAt":"2026-10-04"},{"name":"Ministry for the Environment, Environmental Reporting indicators in the atmosphere and climate domain, CR 727","url":"https://environment.govt.nz/publications/environmental-reporting-indicators-in-the-atmosphere-and-climate-domain/","checkedAt":"2026-10-04"},{"name":"Our environment 2025 technical annex","url":"https://environment.govt.nz/assets/publications/our-environment-2025-technical-annex.pdf","checkedAt":"2026-10-04"}],"translations":[{"language":"tr","url":"https://haberpaper.com/tr/news/new-zealand-extreme-rainfall-share-to-2025","api_url":"https://haberpaper.com/api/v1/articles/new-zealand-extreme-rainfall-share-to-2025?lang=tr"},{"language":"en","url":"https://haberpaper.com/en/news/new-zealand-extreme-rainfall-share-to-2025","api_url":"https://haberpaper.com/api/v1/articles/new-zealand-extreme-rainfall-share-to-2025?lang=en"},{"language":"ar","url":"https://haberpaper.com/ar/news/new-zealand-extreme-rainfall-share-to-2025","api_url":"https://haberpaper.com/api/v1/articles/new-zealand-extreme-rainfall-share-to-2025?lang=ar"},{"language":"fr","url":"https://haberpaper.com/fr/news/new-zealand-extreme-rainfall-share-to-2025","api_url":"https://haberpaper.com/api/v1/articles/new-zealand-extreme-rainfall-share-to-2025?lang=fr"},{"language":"es","url":"https://haberpaper.com/es/news/new-zealand-extreme-rainfall-share-to-2025","api_url":"https://haberpaper.com/api/v1/articles/new-zealand-extreme-rainfall-share-to-2025?lang=es"}],"data_types":["table"],"data":{"version":1,"blocks":[{"id":"nz-extreme-rainfall-trend-sites-2025","type":"table","title":{"tr":"Aşırı yağış payı eğilim sınıfları","en":"Extreme-rainfall share trend categories","ar":"فئات اتجاه حصة الأمطار الشديدة","fr":"Catégories de tendance de la part des fortes pluies","es":"Categorías de tendencia de la proporción de lluvia extrema"},"description":{"tr":"1960–2025 boyunca yıllık yağış payının çok yağışlı günlerden geldiği 30 saha için yayımlanan güven sınıfları.","en":"Published confidence categories across 30 sites for the share of annual rainfall from very wet days, 1960–2025.","ar":"فئات الثقة المنشورة في 30 موقعاً لحصة الأمطار السنوية الآتية من الأيام شديدة البلل خلال 1960–2025.","fr":"Catégories de confiance publiées sur 30 sites pour la part des précipitations annuelles provenant de jours très pluvieux, 1960-2025.","es":"Categorías de confianza publicadas en 30 sitios para la proporción de lluvia anual procedente de días muy húmedos, 1960-2025."},"methodology":{"tr":"R95pTOT, çok yağışlı günlerin yıllık yağış içindeki payıdır. Gün eşiği 1991–2020 günlük toplamlarının 95. yüzdeliğidir; günlük toplam en az 1 mm’dir. Değerlendirme NIWA’nın 30 istasyonunu kullanır; kıyı ve alçak rakım daha iyi temsil edilir. ‘Çok yüksek olasılıkla’ eğilim yönü sınıfıdır, büyüklük veya gelecek hava tahmini değildir.","en":"R95pTOT is the share of annual rainfall from very wet days. The threshold is the 95th percentile of daily totals in 1991–2020, with daily totals of at least 1 mm. The assessment uses 30 NIWA stations, with greater representation of coastal and lower-elevation areas. ‘Very likely’ is a trend-direction confidence category, not magnitude or a weather forecast.","ar":"يقيس R95pTOT حصة الأمطار السنوية من الأيام شديدة البلل. والعتبة هي المئين 95 لمجاميع الأمطار اليومية في 1991–2020، مع حد يومي أدنى 1 مم. ويستخدم التقييم 30 محطة لـNIWA، بتمثيل أكبر للمناطق الساحلية والمنخفضة. و«بدرجة عالية جداً» فئة ثقة في اتجاه الاتجاه لا في حجمه أو توقع الطقس.","fr":"R95pTOT mesure la part annuelle des pluies provenant des jours très pluvieux. Le seuil est le 95e percentile des totaux quotidiens de 1991-2020, avec un minimum quotidien de 1 mm. L’évaluation utilise 30 stations NIWA, davantage représentatives des zones côtières et basses. « Très probablement » décrit la confiance dans le sens de la tendance, pas son ampleur ni une prévision météo.","es":"R95pTOT mide la proporción anual de lluvia procedente de días muy húmedos. El umbral es el percentil 95 de los totales diarios de 1991-2020, con un mínimo diario de 1 mm. La evaluación usa 30 estaciones de NIWA, con mayor representación de zonas costeras y bajas. «Con alta probabilidad» indica confianza en la dirección de la tendencia, no su magnitud ni un pronóstico meteorológico."},"sourceUrls":["https://www.stats.govt.nz/indicators/extreme-rainfall-data-to-2025/","https://environment.govt.nz/publications/environmental-reporting-indicators-in-the-atmosphere-and-climate-domain/","https://environment.govt.nz/assets/publications/our-environment-2025-technical-annex.pdf"],"updatedAt":"2026-10-04T09:12:46Z","columns":[{"key":"trend_category","label":{"tr":"Eğilim güven sınıfı","en":"Trend confidence category","ar":"فئة الثقة في الاتجاه","fr":"Catégorie de confiance de la tendance","es":"Categoría de confianza de la tendencia"},"type":"text","language":"en"},{"key":"sites","label":{"tr":"Saha sayısı","en":"Number of sites","ar":"عدد المواقع","fr":"Nombre de sites","es":"Número de sitios"},"type":"number","unit":"count"},{"key":"period","label":{"tr":"Eğilim dönemi","en":"Trend period","ar":"فترة الاتجاه","fr":"Période de tendance","es":"Periodo de tendencia"},"type":"text","language":"en"},{"key":"period_start_year","label":{"tr":"Başlangıç yılı","en":"Start year","ar":"سنة البداية","fr":"Année de début","es":"Año de inicio"},"type":"number"},{"key":"period_end_year","label":{"tr":"Bitiş yılı","en":"End year","ar":"سنة النهاية","fr":"Année de fin","es":"Año final"},"type":"number"}],"rows":[{"trend_category":"Very likely increased","sites":11,"period":"1960–2025","period_start_year":1960,"period_end_year":2025},{"trend_category":"Very likely decreased","sites":3,"period":"1960–2025","period_start_year":1960,"period_end_year":2025},{"trend_category":"Not in either reported very-likely category; direction not specified here","sites":16,"period":"1960–2025","period_start_year":1960,"period_end_year":2025}]}]},"data_compilations":[{"id":"nz-extreme-rainfall-trend-sites-2025","creator":{"@type":"Organization","@id":"https://haberpaper.com/#organization","name":"Haber Paper","url":"https://haberpaper.com/"},"license":{"@type":"CreativeWork","@id":"https://haberpaper.com/en/data-terms/v1#license","name":"Haber Paper Original Data Compilation License 1.0","url":"https://haberpaper.com/en/data-terms/v1"},"rights_scope":"Haber Paper original data arrangement, labels and methodology notes only; underlying source rights and permissions remain separate.","source_license_url":null}],"data_downloads":[{"id":"nz-extreme-rainfall-trend-sites-2025","formats":{"json":"https://haberpaper.com/api/v1/articles/new-zealand-extreme-rainfall-share-to-2025/data/nz-extreme-rainfall-trend-sites-2025?lang=en&format=json","csv":"https://haberpaper.com/api/v1/articles/new-zealand-extreme-rainfall-share-to-2025/data/nz-extreme-rainfall-trend-sites-2025?lang=en&format=csv"}}],"content":{"paragraphs":["Stats NZ’s 2 October 2026 update, “Data to 2025,” reports long-run trends in an extreme-rainfall indicator at 30 climate sites across Aotearoa New Zealand. Between 1960 and 2025, the share of annual rainfall falling on very wet days very likely increased at 11 sites and very likely decreased at three. The source does not assign either of these two categories to the remaining sites. It would therefore be inaccurate to call the other 16 sites stable or unchanged.","The measure calculates what proportion of a year’s rainfall comes from very wet days; it does not measure a single daily record or total rainfall. The technical metric is R95pTOT: annual rainfall on days classed as very wet divided by annual rainfall. A very wet day is one when daily rainfall exceeds the 95th percentile of daily totals calculated over the 1991–2020 climate normal. The analysis applies a minimum daily total of 1 millimetre. This threshold identifies unusually wet days relative to the reference climate period.","A share metric describes how rainfall is distributed through the year. A rising share does not necessarily mean that annual rainfall increased: the share can rise while total rainfall stays similar, and total rainfall can rise without a change in the share. A trend at one station is also not equivalent to a single national-average rainfall regime. Stats NZ publishes total annual rainfall as a separate indicator in the same update. This article focuses only on the trend categories for the proportion contributed by very wet days.","The site network is not an evenly spaced grid covering every part of the country. The Ministry for the Environment’s technical annex says the atmosphere and climate indicators use observations from 30 NIWA climate stations. Sites are distributed to capture places where many people live; coastal and lower-elevation areas are more represented, while inland high elevations are less represented. This design matters when interpreting the geographic scope. Results from the network cannot automatically be extended to every catchment, town, or parcel of land.","The phrase “very likely” describes a confidence category for the direction of a statistical trend, not the magnitude of a change. Likelihood categories summarize uncertainty in trends observed at the sites. They do not say that a particular future rainfall event will certainly occur or that flooding will happen in a specified location. Likewise, sites not classified in the reported increase or decrease groups should not be assigned an unreported direction. The figures 11 and three are counts of classified outcomes across the 30-site network.","The trend period runs from 1960 through 2025, with 2025 as the latest data year rather than the starting point. The daily rainfall threshold uses the 1991–2020 normal, providing a common reference for identifying very wet days within the longer observational record. The trend period and threshold reference period therefore differ. The indicator is based on annual series derived from station observations and a trend assessment; it is not a short-term weather forecast, a projection for next year, or an estimate of climate-related damages.","The reported finding is that the very-wet-day share of annual rainfall very likely rose at 11 sites and very likely fell at three. That distribution does not support a claim of one uniform direction at every location in the country. Because a trend category does not report the amount of change, the 11 and three counts alone also cannot compare the size of changes between sites. The results inform monitoring of an extreme-rainfall indicator; they do not, by themselves, determine water-management decisions, infrastructure risk, or climate attribution."],"key_points":[],"sections":[]},"text":"In Stats NZ’s 1960–2025 assessment, the share of annual rainfall from very wet days very likely increased at 11 of 30 sites and decreased at three.\n\nStats NZ’s 2 October 2026 update, “Data to 2025,” reports long-run trends in an extreme-rainfall indicator at 30 climate sites across Aotearoa New Zealand. Between 1960 and 2025, the share of annual rainfall falling on very wet days very likely increased at 11 sites and very likely decreased at three. The source does not assign either of these two categories to the remaining sites. It would therefore be inaccurate to call the other 16 sites stable or unchanged.\n\nThe measure calculates what proportion of a year’s rainfall comes from very wet days; it does not measure a single daily record or total rainfall. The technical metric is R95pTOT: annual rainfall on days classed as very wet divided by annual rainfall. A very wet day is one when daily rainfall exceeds the 95th percentile of daily totals calculated over the 1991–2020 climate normal. The analysis applies a minimum daily total of 1 millimetre. This threshold identifies unusually wet days relative to the reference climate period.\n\nA share metric describes how rainfall is distributed through the year. A rising share does not necessarily mean that annual rainfall increased: the share can rise while total rainfall stays similar, and total rainfall can rise without a change in the share. A trend at one station is also not equivalent to a single national-average rainfall regime. Stats NZ publishes total annual rainfall as a separate indicator in the same update. This article focuses only on the trend categories for the proportion contributed by very wet days.\n\nThe site network is not an evenly spaced grid covering every part of the country. The Ministry for the Environment’s technical annex says the atmosphere and climate indicators use observations from 30 NIWA climate stations. Sites are distributed to capture places where many people live; coastal and lower-elevation areas are more represented, while inland high elevations are less represented. This design matters when interpreting the geographic scope. Results from the network cannot automatically be extended to every catchment, town, or parcel of land.\n\nThe phrase “very likely” describes a confidence category for the direction of a statistical trend, not the magnitude of a change. Likelihood categories summarize uncertainty in trends observed at the sites. They do not say that a particular future rainfall event will certainly occur or that flooding will happen in a specified location. Likewise, sites not classified in the reported increase or decrease groups should not be assigned an unreported direction. The figures 11 and three are counts of classified outcomes across the 30-site network.\n\nThe trend period runs from 1960 through 2025, with 2025 as the latest data year rather than the starting point. The daily rainfall threshold uses the 1991–2020 normal, providing a common reference for identifying very wet days within the longer observational record. The trend period and threshold reference period therefore differ. The indicator is based on annual series derived from station observations and a trend assessment; it is not a short-term weather forecast, a projection for next year, or an estimate of climate-related damages.\n\nThe reported finding is that the very-wet-day share of annual rainfall very likely rose at 11 sites and very likely fell at three. That distribution does not support a claim of one uniform direction at every location in the country. Because a trend category does not report the amount of change, the 11 and three counts alone also cannot compare the size of changes between sites. The results inform monitoring of an extreme-rainfall indicator; they do not, by themselves, determine water-management decisions, infrastructure risk, or climate attribution.","corrections":[],"editorial_illustration":{"kind":"symbolic-editorial-illustration","documentary":false,"scope":"section","asset_id":"economy","url":"https://haberpaper.com/assets/illustrations/economy-1536.webp","width":1536,"height":1024,"alt":"Symbolic trading harbour with a cargo ship, containers and a bridge.","language":"en"},"section_illustration":{"kind":"symbolic-editorial-illustration","documentary":false,"scope":"section","asset_id":"economy","url":"https://haberpaper.com/assets/illustrations/economy-1536.webp","width":1536,"height":1024,"alt":"Symbolic trading harbour with a cargo ship, containers and a bridge.","language":"en"}}}