{"version":"1","article":{"id":"mexico-private-economists-outlook-september-2026","slug":"mexico-private-economists-outlook-september-2026","language":"en","url":"https://haberpaper.com/en/news/mexico-private-economists-outlook-september-2026","api_url":"https://haberpaper.com/api/v1/articles/mexico-private-economists-outlook-september-2026?lang=en","title":"Banxico survey lifts Mexico’s 2026 growth median to 1.40%","summary":"Private-sector groups’ median growth projection for 2026 rose from 1.30% in August, while the 2027 median stayed at 1.80%.","category":"finance","region":"world","topics":[],"published_at":"2026-10-06T20:26:23+03:00","modified_at":"2026-10-06T20:26:23+03:00","publication_basis":"publication-record","event_period":"2026-09","event_period_basis":"event-or-reference-period","sources":[{"name":"Banco de México","url":"https://www.banxico.org.mx/publicaciones-y-prensa/encuestas-sobre-las-expectativas-de-los-especialis/%7BEEFA3879-4DED-3362-C8CD-9F292BFF772E%7D.pdf","publishedAt":"2026-10-01","checkedAt":"2026-10-06"}],"translations":[{"language":"tr","url":"https://haberpaper.com/tr/news/mexico-private-economists-outlook-september-2026","api_url":"https://haberpaper.com/api/v1/articles/mexico-private-economists-outlook-september-2026?lang=tr"},{"language":"en","url":"https://haberpaper.com/en/news/mexico-private-economists-outlook-september-2026","api_url":"https://haberpaper.com/api/v1/articles/mexico-private-economists-outlook-september-2026?lang=en"},{"language":"ar","url":"https://haberpaper.com/ar/news/mexico-private-economists-outlook-september-2026","api_url":"https://haberpaper.com/api/v1/articles/mexico-private-economists-outlook-september-2026?lang=ar"},{"language":"fr","url":"https://haberpaper.com/fr/news/mexico-private-economists-outlook-september-2026","api_url":"https://haberpaper.com/api/v1/articles/mexico-private-economists-outlook-september-2026?lang=fr"},{"language":"es","url":"https://haberpaper.com/es/news/mexico-private-economists-outlook-september-2026","api_url":"https://haberpaper.com/api/v1/articles/mexico-private-economists-outlook-september-2026?lang=es"}],"data_types":[],"data":null,"data_compilations":[],"data_downloads":[],"content":{"paragraphs":["Banco de México’s September survey, published on October 1, compiles private-sector expectations for Mexico’s year-end economic indicators. The bank collected responses from 42 domestic and foreign economics and consulting groups between September 15 and 28. The median projection for real gross domestic product (GDP) growth in 2026 rose to 1.40% from 1.30% in August; the 2027 median remained at 1.80%. These are respondents’ forecasts, not realized growth data or a forecast issued by the central bank itself.","Table 1 reports the arithmetic mean as well as the median. The mean 2026 growth projection increased from 1.25% to 1.40%. For 2027, the mean rose from 1.75% to 1.77%, while the median was 1.80% in both surveys. The median is the middle value after responses are ordered; the mean is their sum divided by the number of responses. A small number of unusually high or low estimates can therefore move the mean differently from the median.","For December-to-December inflation, the 2026 year-end headline median eased from 3.90% in August to 3.87% in September, while the mean fell from 3.88% to 3.85%. The core inflation median declined from 3.99% to 3.90%, and its mean from 4.00% to 3.89%. For 2027, the headline median moved from 3.84% to 3.82%, and the core median from 3.80% to 3.78%. These are expected annual inflation rates at year-end, not the monthly inflation rate observed in September.","The median exchange-rate projection for the end of 2026 was unchanged at 17.50 pesos per US dollar. The 2027 median edged down from 18.05 to 18.04 pesos per dollar. In the same table, mean exchange-rate projections rose from 17.54 to 17.57 for 2026 and from 18.10 to 18.11 for 2027. The figures show how median and mean responses can point in different directions for the same indicator. They are survey responses, not a promised exchange rate or policy target.","The median expectation for the interbank funding rate at year-end stayed at 6.50% for both 2026 and 2027. The mean moved from 6.49% to 6.51% for 2026 and from 6.47% to 6.51% for 2027. These figures describe respondents’ rate expectations; they do not announce Banco de México’s policy-rate decision.","The survey also covers labor-market, public-finance, external-sector, business-climate and US growth indicators. Its inflation section presents respondents’ probability distributions across different inflation ranges, alongside point estimates. The publication therefore contains more than a single forecast figure, although no survey can determine future economic outcomes with certainty.","The September results show a modest upward revision in the 2026 median growth outlook and no change in the 2027 median. The median projections for 2026 headline and core inflation were revised lower, while exchange-rate medians remained close to their August levels. Each percentage refers to a specific year-end horizon. The survey records what the responding groups expected at that time; it does not represent subsequently realized results."],"key_points":[],"sections":[]},"text":"Private-sector groups’ median growth projection for 2026 rose from 1.30% in August, while the 2027 median stayed at 1.80%.\n\nBanco de México’s September survey, published on October 1, compiles private-sector expectations for Mexico’s year-end economic indicators. The bank collected responses from 42 domestic and foreign economics and consulting groups between September 15 and 28. The median projection for real gross domestic product (GDP) growth in 2026 rose to 1.40% from 1.30% in August; the 2027 median remained at 1.80%. These are respondents’ forecasts, not realized growth data or a forecast issued by the central bank itself.\n\nTable 1 reports the arithmetic mean as well as the median. The mean 2026 growth projection increased from 1.25% to 1.40%. For 2027, the mean rose from 1.75% to 1.77%, while the median was 1.80% in both surveys. The median is the middle value after responses are ordered; the mean is their sum divided by the number of responses. A small number of unusually high or low estimates can therefore move the mean differently from the median.\n\nFor December-to-December inflation, the 2026 year-end headline median eased from 3.90% in August to 3.87% in September, while the mean fell from 3.88% to 3.85%. The core inflation median declined from 3.99% to 3.90%, and its mean from 4.00% to 3.89%. For 2027, the headline median moved from 3.84% to 3.82%, and the core median from 3.80% to 3.78%. These are expected annual inflation rates at year-end, not the monthly inflation rate observed in September.\n\nThe median exchange-rate projection for the end of 2026 was unchanged at 17.50 pesos per US dollar. The 2027 median edged down from 18.05 to 18.04 pesos per dollar. In the same table, mean exchange-rate projections rose from 17.54 to 17.57 for 2026 and from 18.10 to 18.11 for 2027. The figures show how median and mean responses can point in different directions for the same indicator. They are survey responses, not a promised exchange rate or policy target.\n\nThe median expectation for the interbank funding rate at year-end stayed at 6.50% for both 2026 and 2027. The mean moved from 6.49% to 6.51% for 2026 and from 6.47% to 6.51% for 2027. These figures describe respondents’ rate expectations; they do not announce Banco de México’s policy-rate decision.\n\nThe survey also covers labor-market, public-finance, external-sector, business-climate and US growth indicators. Its inflation section presents respondents’ probability distributions across different inflation ranges, alongside point estimates. The publication therefore contains more than a single forecast figure, although no survey can determine future economic outcomes with certainty.\n\nThe September results show a modest upward revision in the 2026 median growth outlook and no change in the 2027 median. The median projections for 2026 headline and core inflation were revised lower, while exchange-rate medians remained close to their August levels. Each percentage refers to a specific year-end horizon. The survey records what the responding groups expected at that time; it does not represent subsequently realized results.","corrections":[],"editorial_illustration":{"kind":"symbolic-editorial-illustration","documentary":false,"scope":"section","asset_id":"finance","url":"https://haberpaper.com/assets/illustrations/finance-1536.webp","width":1536,"height":1024,"alt":"Symbolic financial system with a vault door, columns and unmarked coins.","language":"en"},"section_illustration":{"kind":"symbolic-editorial-illustration","documentary":false,"scope":"section","asset_id":"finance","url":"https://haberpaper.com/assets/illustrations/finance-1536.webp","width":1536,"height":1024,"alt":"Symbolic financial system with a vault door, columns and unmarked coins.","language":"en"}}}