{"version":"1","article":{"id":"mexico-manufacturing-orders-indicator-september-2026","slug":"mexico-manufacturing-orders-indicator-september-2026","language":"en","url":"https://haberpaper.com/en/news/mexico-manufacturing-orders-indicator-september-2026","api_url":"https://haberpaper.com/api/v1/articles/mexico-manufacturing-orders-indicator-september-2026?lang=en","title":"Mexico manufacturing orders indicator falls to 49.1 points in September","summary":"INEGI and Banco de México said the seasonally adjusted IPM fell 2.5 points monthly; it is a survey of business expectations, not a measure of realized output.","category":"business","region":"world","topics":[],"published_at":"2026-10-04T13:00:06+03:00","modified_at":"2026-10-04T13:00:06+03:00","publication_basis":"publication-record","event_period":"2026-09","event_period_basis":"event-or-reference-period","sources":[{"name":"National Institute of Statistics and Geography (INEGI), Mexico","url":"https://www.inegi.org.mx/app/saladeprensa/noticia/11253","publishedAt":"2026-10-01","checkedAt":"2026-10-04"},{"name":"INEGI, IPM methodology and sample description","url":"https://www.inegi.org.mx/contenidos/saladeprensa/boletines/2025/emoe/ipm2025_09.pdf","checkedAt":"2026-10-04"}],"translations":[{"language":"tr","url":"https://haberpaper.com/tr/news/mexico-manufacturing-orders-indicator-september-2026","api_url":"https://haberpaper.com/api/v1/articles/mexico-manufacturing-orders-indicator-september-2026?lang=tr"},{"language":"en","url":"https://haberpaper.com/en/news/mexico-manufacturing-orders-indicator-september-2026","api_url":"https://haberpaper.com/api/v1/articles/mexico-manufacturing-orders-indicator-september-2026?lang=en"},{"language":"ar","url":"https://haberpaper.com/ar/news/mexico-manufacturing-orders-indicator-september-2026","api_url":"https://haberpaper.com/api/v1/articles/mexico-manufacturing-orders-indicator-september-2026?lang=ar"},{"language":"fr","url":"https://haberpaper.com/fr/news/mexico-manufacturing-orders-indicator-september-2026","api_url":"https://haberpaper.com/api/v1/articles/mexico-manufacturing-orders-indicator-september-2026?lang=fr"},{"language":"es","url":"https://haberpaper.com/es/news/mexico-manufacturing-orders-indicator-september-2026","api_url":"https://haberpaper.com/api/v1/articles/mexico-manufacturing-orders-indicator-september-2026?lang=es"}],"data_types":["metrics"],"data":{"version":1,"blocks":[{"id":"mexico-ipm-september-2026","type":"metrics","title":{"tr":"Meksika imalat siparişleri göstergesi","en":"Mexico Manufacturing Orders Indicator","ar":"مؤشر طلبات التصنيع في المكسيك","fr":"Indicateur des commandes manufacturières du Mexique","es":"Indicador mexicano de pedidos manufactureros"},"description":{"tr":"Eylül 2026 mevsim etkisinden arındırılmış IPM seviyesi ve aylık puan değişimi.","en":"September 2026 seasonally adjusted IPM level and monthly point change.","ar":"مستوى مؤشر سبتمبر 2026 المعدل موسمياً والتغير الشهري بالنقاط.","fr":"Niveau désaisonnalisé de l’IPM en septembre 2026 et variation mensuelle en points.","es":"Nivel desestacionalizado del IPM en septiembre de 2026 y cambio mensual en puntos."},"methodology":{"tr":"IPM, EMOE içindeki yönetici beklentilerinden türetilen 50 merkezli bileşik endekstir; 50 üzeri daha iyimser, altı daha az elverişli beklentileri gösterir. Ulusal, olasılıklı ve tabakalı işletme örneklemi kullanılır; özgün seri X-13ARIMA-SEATS ile mevsimsel düzeltilir.","en":"The IPM is a 50-centred composite index derived from managers’ expectations in EMOE; above 50 indicates more optimistic, below 50 less favourable expectations. It uses a national probabilistic stratified enterprise sample; original series are seasonally adjusted with X-13ARIMA-SEATS.","ar":"المؤشر مركب ومتمركز عند 50 ويستند إلى توقعات المديرين في مسح EMOE؛ وفوق 50 يعني توقعات أكثر تفاؤلاً ودونه أقل ملاءمة. ويستخدم عينة وطنية احتمالية طبقية من المنشآت مع تعديل موسمي بطريقة X-13ARIMA-SEATS.","fr":"L’IPM est un indice composite centré sur 50, tiré des attentes des dirigeants dans l’EMOE ; au-dessus de 50, les attentes sont plus optimistes, au-dessous, moins favorables. L’échantillon national probabiliste et stratifié d’entreprises est désaisonnalisé par X-13ARIMA-SEATS.","es":"El IPM es un índice compuesto centrado en 50 que deriva de expectativas directivas recogidas por la EMOE; por encima de 50 hay expectativas más optimistas y por debajo menos favorables. Utiliza una muestra nacional probabilística y estratificada de empresas; las series originales se ajustan con X-13ARIMA-SEATS."},"sourceUrls":["https://www.inegi.org.mx/app/saladeprensa/noticia/11253","https://www.inegi.org.mx/contenidos/saladeprensa/boletines/2025/emoe/ipm2025_09.pdf"],"updatedAt":"2026-10-04T09:21:22Z","items":[{"label":{"tr":"Mevsim etkisinden arındırılmış IPM","en":"Seasonally adjusted IPM","ar":"المؤشر المعدل موسمياً","fr":"IPM désaisonnalisé","es":"IPM desestacionalizado"},"value":49.1,"unit":"index points","period":"2026-09","basis":"observed","measure":{"id":"mexico-manufacturing-orders-indicator","unitCode":"index-point","geography":"mexico","frequency":"monthly","aggregation":"rate","periodRole":"reference-period"}},{"label":{"tr":"Aylık IPM puan değişimi","en":"Monthly IPM point change","ar":"التغير الشهري للمؤشر بالنقاط","fr":"Variation mensuelle de l’IPM en points","es":"Cambio mensual del IPM en puntos"},"value":-2.5,"unit":"index points","period":"2026-09","basis":"observed","measure":{"id":"mexico-manufacturing-orders-indicator-monthly-change","unitCode":"index-point","geography":"mexico","frequency":"monthly","aggregation":"change","periodRole":"reference-period"}}]}]},"data_compilations":[{"id":"mexico-ipm-september-2026","creator":{"@type":"Organization","@id":"https://haberpaper.com/#organization","name":"Haber Paper","url":"https://haberpaper.com/"},"license":{"@type":"CreativeWork","@id":"https://haberpaper.com/en/data-terms/v1#license","name":"Haber Paper Original Data Compilation License 1.0","url":"https://haberpaper.com/en/data-terms/v1"},"rights_scope":"Haber Paper original data arrangement, labels and methodology notes only; underlying source rights and permissions remain separate.","source_license_url":null}],"data_downloads":[{"id":"mexico-ipm-september-2026","formats":{"json":"https://haberpaper.com/api/v1/articles/mexico-manufacturing-orders-indicator-september-2026/data/mexico-ipm-september-2026?lang=en&format=json","csv":"https://haberpaper.com/api/v1/articles/mexico-manufacturing-orders-indicator-september-2026/data/mexico-ipm-september-2026?lang=en&format=csv"}}],"content":{"paragraphs":["Mexico’s National Institute of Statistics and Geography and Banco de México released the September 2026 Manufacturing Orders Indicator on 1 October. The seasonally adjusted IPM fell 2.5 points from August to 49.1 points. A month earlier, the indicator had been above the 50-point threshold. This is not a count of realized production or the volume of orders in administrative records. It is a survey indicator combining manufacturing executives’ perceptions and expectations about the sector.","The IPM has five components: expected order volume, expected physical production, expectations for total employment, the timeliness of suppliers’ input deliveries, and input inventories. INEGI’s September release said the seasonally adjusted declines came in expected orders, production, employment, and supplier delivery timing, while the input-inventory component increased. The main indicator’s 2.5-point movement does not mean a 2.5% contraction or an equally sized decline in manufacturing output.","The indicator is centred on a 50-point threshold. Its methodology says values above 50 reflect more optimistic expectations about the relevant topic, while values below that level point to less favourable or contrary expectations. A reading of 49.1 therefore places the composite survey measure below the threshold; it does not, by itself, prove that realized production growth was negative. A point movement is different from a percentage change: the series is presented as index levels and differences in points.","The Monthly Business Opinion Survey, known by its Spanish acronym EMOE, uses a national sample across selected manufacturing subsector groups. INEGI’s methodology bulletin defines the observation unit as an enterprise employing at least 101 people in its economic activity. The manufacturing frame updated in 2025 comprised 6,743 enterprises, and the sample included 1,528 units. The design is probabilistic and stratified; enterprises with more than 1,000 employees are selected with certainty. Results are combined using sample weights and each study domain’s sector share.","The survey’s seven manufacturing subsector domains have national coverage. The 49.1 reading therefore does not describe a particular state or factory. Its components are intended to capture managers’ expectations at different stages of the production process; orders and production are forward-looking questions. The employment component is not an observed headcount either. Supplier delivery timing and inventory components measure businesses’ views of input conditions. The IPM should not be read as the same kind of data as realized production, sales, or export-volume series.","Seasonal adjustment aims to remove recurring calendar patterns from monthly comparisons. The methodology bulletin says original series are adjusted using the X-13ARIMA-SEATS statistical package. The 49.1 level and 2.5-point decline in the September headline refer to this adjusted comparison. Because the survey can be released soon after the reference month, it offers a timely indicator of business expectations. Its responses remain perceptions, however, and are subject to sampling uncertainty. Realized production data are compiled through a different statistical process.","With the scope and measure correctly identified, the September decline supports a narrow conclusion: the composite managerial-expectations index moved below the 50-point threshold and recorded a monthly point decrease. It does not alone establish that manufacturing output fell, that orders declined by a specific quantity, or what will happen next. Separate series such as industrial production, exports, and company records are needed to assess realized activity. This article reports the survey-based IPM released by INEGI and Banco de México and its documented scope; it does not recast the indicator as a production statistic or forecast."],"key_points":[],"sections":[]},"text":"INEGI and Banco de México said the seasonally adjusted IPM fell 2.5 points monthly; it is a survey of business expectations, not a measure of realized output.\n\nMexico’s National Institute of Statistics and Geography and Banco de México released the September 2026 Manufacturing Orders Indicator on 1 October. The seasonally adjusted IPM fell 2.5 points from August to 49.1 points. A month earlier, the indicator had been above the 50-point threshold. This is not a count of realized production or the volume of orders in administrative records. It is a survey indicator combining manufacturing executives’ perceptions and expectations about the sector.\n\nThe IPM has five components: expected order volume, expected physical production, expectations for total employment, the timeliness of suppliers’ input deliveries, and input inventories. INEGI’s September release said the seasonally adjusted declines came in expected orders, production, employment, and supplier delivery timing, while the input-inventory component increased. The main indicator’s 2.5-point movement does not mean a 2.5% contraction or an equally sized decline in manufacturing output.\n\nThe indicator is centred on a 50-point threshold. Its methodology says values above 50 reflect more optimistic expectations about the relevant topic, while values below that level point to less favourable or contrary expectations. A reading of 49.1 therefore places the composite survey measure below the threshold; it does not, by itself, prove that realized production growth was negative. A point movement is different from a percentage change: the series is presented as index levels and differences in points.\n\nThe Monthly Business Opinion Survey, known by its Spanish acronym EMOE, uses a national sample across selected manufacturing subsector groups. INEGI’s methodology bulletin defines the observation unit as an enterprise employing at least 101 people in its economic activity. The manufacturing frame updated in 2025 comprised 6,743 enterprises, and the sample included 1,528 units. The design is probabilistic and stratified; enterprises with more than 1,000 employees are selected with certainty. Results are combined using sample weights and each study domain’s sector share.\n\nThe survey’s seven manufacturing subsector domains have national coverage. The 49.1 reading therefore does not describe a particular state or factory. Its components are intended to capture managers’ expectations at different stages of the production process; orders and production are forward-looking questions. The employment component is not an observed headcount either. Supplier delivery timing and inventory components measure businesses’ views of input conditions. The IPM should not be read as the same kind of data as realized production, sales, or export-volume series.\n\nSeasonal adjustment aims to remove recurring calendar patterns from monthly comparisons. The methodology bulletin says original series are adjusted using the X-13ARIMA-SEATS statistical package. The 49.1 level and 2.5-point decline in the September headline refer to this adjusted comparison. Because the survey can be released soon after the reference month, it offers a timely indicator of business expectations. Its responses remain perceptions, however, and are subject to sampling uncertainty. Realized production data are compiled through a different statistical process.\n\nWith the scope and measure correctly identified, the September decline supports a narrow conclusion: the composite managerial-expectations index moved below the 50-point threshold and recorded a monthly point decrease. It does not alone establish that manufacturing output fell, that orders declined by a specific quantity, or what will happen next. Separate series such as industrial production, exports, and company records are needed to assess realized activity. This article reports the survey-based IPM released by INEGI and Banco de México and its documented scope; it does not recast the indicator as a production statistic or forecast.","corrections":[],"editorial_illustration":{"kind":"symbolic-editorial-illustration","documentary":false,"scope":"section","asset_id":"business","url":"https://haberpaper.com/assets/illustrations/business-1536.webp","width":1536,"height":1024,"alt":"Symbolic industrial workshop with machinery, a warehouse and a crane.","language":"en"},"section_illustration":{"kind":"symbolic-editorial-illustration","documentary":false,"scope":"section","asset_id":"business","url":"https://haberpaper.com/assets/illustrations/business-1536.webp","width":1536,"height":1024,"alt":"Symbolic industrial workshop with machinery, a warehouse and a crane.","language":"en"}}}