{"version":"1","article":{"id":"mexico-business-cycle-indicators-july-2026","slug":"mexico-business-cycle-indicators-july-2026","language":"en","url":"https://haberpaper.com/en/news/mexico-business-cycle-indicators-july-2026","api_url":"https://haberpaper.com/api/v1/articles/mexico-business-cycle-indicators-july-2026?lang=en","title":"Mexico’s coincident indicator returned to its long-term trend in July","summary":"The coincident indicator rose 0.10 points to 100.0 in July; the leading indicator gained 0.02 in August and remained above its long-term trend.","category":"economy","region":"world","topics":[],"published_at":"2026-10-04T13:00:06+03:00","modified_at":"2026-10-04T13:00:06+03:00","publication_basis":"publication-record","event_period":"2026-07","event_period_basis":"event-or-reference-period","sources":[{"name":"Instituto Nacional de Estadística y Geografía (INEGI)","url":"https://www.inegi.org.mx/contenidos/saladeprensa/boletines/2026/sic_cya/sic2026_10.pdf","publishedAt":"2026-10-02","checkedAt":"2026-10-04"}],"translations":[{"language":"tr","url":"https://haberpaper.com/tr/news/mexico-business-cycle-indicators-july-2026","api_url":"https://haberpaper.com/api/v1/articles/mexico-business-cycle-indicators-july-2026?lang=tr"},{"language":"en","url":"https://haberpaper.com/en/news/mexico-business-cycle-indicators-july-2026","api_url":"https://haberpaper.com/api/v1/articles/mexico-business-cycle-indicators-july-2026?lang=en"},{"language":"ar","url":"https://haberpaper.com/ar/news/mexico-business-cycle-indicators-july-2026","api_url":"https://haberpaper.com/api/v1/articles/mexico-business-cycle-indicators-july-2026?lang=ar"},{"language":"fr","url":"https://haberpaper.com/fr/news/mexico-business-cycle-indicators-july-2026","api_url":"https://haberpaper.com/api/v1/articles/mexico-business-cycle-indicators-july-2026?lang=fr"},{"language":"es","url":"https://haberpaper.com/es/news/mexico-business-cycle-indicators-july-2026","api_url":"https://haberpaper.com/api/v1/articles/mexico-business-cycle-indicators-july-2026?lang=es"}],"data_types":["metrics"],"data":{"version":1,"blocks":[{"id":"cyclical-indicators","type":"metrics","title":{"tr":"Döngüsel göstergelerin düzeyi ve aylık değişimi","en":"Level and monthly change in cyclical indicators","ar":"مستوى المؤشرات الدورية وتغيرها الشهري","fr":"Niveau et variation mensuelle des indicateurs cycliques","es":"Nivel y cambio mensual de indicadores cíclicos"},"description":{"tr":"Temmuz 2026 eşzamanlı ve Ağustos 2026 öncü endeks düzeyleri ve aylık puan farkları.","en":"Coincident index level for July 2026 and leading index level for August 2026, with monthly point differences.","ar":"مستوى المؤشر المتزامن في يوليو 2026 والمتقدم في أغسطس 2026 وفروق النقاط الشهرية.","fr":"Niveau de l’indicateur coïncident en juillet 2026 et avancé en août, avec écarts mensuels en points.","es":"Nivel del indicador coincidente de julio de 2026 y adelantado de agosto, con diferencias mensuales en puntos."},"methodology":{"tr":"INEGI Döngüsel Göstergeler Sistemi bileşik endeksleridir. 100 puan uzun dönem eğilim çizgisidir. Temmuz eşzamanlı ve Ağustos öncü değerleri farklı referans aylarına aittir; puanlar GSYH büyüme yüzdesi değildir.","en":"Composite indexes from INEGI’s System of Cyclical Indicators. The 100-point line is the long-term trend benchmark. July coincident and August leading readings refer to different months; points are not GDP growth percentages.","ar":"مؤشرات مركبة من نظام المؤشرات الدورية لدى INEGI. يمثل مستوى 100 خط الاتجاه طويل الأجل. تعود قراءة المتزامن في يوليو والمتقدم في أغسطس إلى شهرين مختلفين؛ والنقاط ليست نسب نمو الناتج.","fr":"Indices composites du Système d’indicateurs cycliques de l’INEGI. La ligne de 100 points représente la tendance à long terme. Les lectures coïncidente de juillet et avancée d’août concernent des mois différents ; les points ne sont pas des taux de croissance du PIB.","es":"Índices compuestos del Sistema de Indicadores Cíclicos del INEGI. La línea de 100 puntos es la referencia de tendencia de largo plazo. Las lecturas coincidente de julio y adelantada de agosto corresponden a meses distintos; los puntos no son tasas de crecimiento del PIB."},"sourceUrls":["https://www.inegi.org.mx/contenidos/saladeprensa/boletines/2026/sic_cya/sic2026_10.pdf"],"updatedAt":"2026-10-04T09:21:22Z","items":[{"label":{"tr":"Eşzamanlı gösterge","en":"Coincident Indicator","ar":"المؤشر المتزامن","fr":"Indicateur coïncident","es":"Indicador Coincidente"},"value":100,"unit":"index points","period":"2026-07","basis":"observed","measure":{"id":"mexico-coincident-indicator","unitCode":"index-point","geography":"mexico","frequency":"monthly","aggregation":"rate","periodRole":"reference-period"}},{"label":{"tr":"Eşzamanlı göstergedeki aylık artış","en":"Monthly increase in the coincident indicator","ar":"الزيادة الشهرية للمؤشر المتزامن","fr":"Hausse mensuelle de l’indicateur coïncident","es":"Aumento mensual del Indicador Coincidente"},"value":0.1,"unit":"index points","period":"2026-07","basis":"observed","measure":{"id":"mexico-coincident-indicator-monthly-change","unitCode":"index-point","geography":"mexico","frequency":"monthly","aggregation":"change","periodRole":"reference-period"}},{"label":{"tr":"Öncü gösterge","en":"Leading Indicator","ar":"المؤشر المتقدم","fr":"Indicateur avancé","es":"Indicador Adelantado"},"value":100.8,"unit":"index points","period":"2026-08","basis":"observed","measure":{"id":"mexico-leading-indicator","unitCode":"index-point","geography":"mexico","frequency":"monthly","aggregation":"rate","periodRole":"reference-period"}},{"label":{"tr":"Öncü göstergedeki aylık artış","en":"Monthly increase in the leading indicator","ar":"الزيادة الشهرية للمؤشر المتقدم","fr":"Hausse mensuelle de l’indicateur avancé","es":"Aumento mensual del Indicador Adelantado"},"value":0.02,"unit":"index points","period":"2026-08","basis":"observed","measure":{"id":"mexico-leading-indicator-monthly-change","unitCode":"index-point","geography":"mexico","frequency":"monthly","aggregation":"change","periodRole":"reference-period"}}]}]},"data_compilations":[{"id":"cyclical-indicators","creator":{"@type":"Organization","@id":"https://haberpaper.com/#organization","name":"Haber Paper","url":"https://haberpaper.com/"},"license":{"@type":"CreativeWork","@id":"https://haberpaper.com/en/data-terms/v1#license","name":"Haber Paper Original Data Compilation License 1.0","url":"https://haberpaper.com/en/data-terms/v1"},"rights_scope":"Haber Paper original data arrangement, labels and methodology notes only; underlying source rights and permissions remain separate.","source_license_url":null}],"data_downloads":[{"id":"cyclical-indicators","formats":{"json":"https://haberpaper.com/api/v1/articles/mexico-business-cycle-indicators-july-2026/data/cyclical-indicators?lang=en&format=json","csv":"https://haberpaper.com/api/v1/articles/mexico-business-cycle-indicators-july-2026/data/cyclical-indicators?lang=en&format=csv"}}],"content":{"paragraphs":["INEGI’s System of Cyclical Indicators, released on 2 October, reported that the Coincident Indicator reached 100.0 points in July 2026, up 0.10 points from June. The institute uses 100 as the reference line for the long-term trend. July’s reading therefore placed the index at its own long-term trend benchmark; it does not, by itself, imply a particular amount of growth in production or GDP.","The system contains two composite indicators. The Coincident Indicator is intended to reflect the economy’s general state and possible turning points. The Leading Indicator seeks to signal turning points in the coincident measure ahead of time. In the same release, INEGI put the Leading Indicator at 100.8 in August, 0.02 points higher than in July and above its long-term trend. Because one reading refers to July and the other to August, they should not be treated as two measures for the same month.","Components of the coincident measure include an indicator of economic activity, industrial activity, retail revenues, permanent workers registered with IMSS, the urban unemployment rate and total imports. The leading measure combines different elements, including manufacturing employment trends, business views of whether it is a good time to invest, the real stock-market index, the Mexico–United States real exchange rate, interest rates and a US equity index. This composition means the result is not based on one survey or one sector; movements in different directions among components affect how the composite should be read.","INEGI’s table shows the Coincident Indicator at 100.0 in July, 0.10 points above June. The level at 100 and the monthly increase together mean the index rose from the previous month and sat on its long-term trend line. But a level and a monthly difference are distinct measures. A value of 100 is not a growth percentage, and a 0.10-point change does not mean GDP rose 0.10%.","The Leading Indicator moved to 100.8 in August, remaining above the 100 reference. Its 0.02-point monthly increase is small, and the method does not guarantee a future economic outcome. The leading measure is intended to inform turning-point analysis. It should not be presented as a forecast of production, employment, exports or market performance on a specific date. As actual economic data arrive, components and historical index calculations may be updated.","Under the growth-cycle approach, the system assesses where component cycles stand relative to their respective long-term trends. The 100 line is a benchmark; being above or below it describes position relative to that reference, not a rate of change. INEGI also publishes separate graphs of the Coincident Indicator under the classical business-cycle approach. Since the two approaches use different concepts and interpretive limits, the position in one should not be confused with the recession and expansion definitions of the other.","The institute gives an important caution: the size of a fall or recovery in the Coincident Indicator should not be treated as a measure of contraction or recovery in economic activity; instead, it indicates the degree of certainty about the economy’s direction. July’s 0.10-point increase is therefore not a direct growth estimate. Likewise, a reading at the 100 threshold is not sufficient on its own to diagnose broad-based expansion or contraction. Direct assessments of production and national income require national accounts and relevant monthly indicators.","The bulletin shows that the coincident composite rose from June to reach its long-term trend in July, while the leading measure was slightly higher and above 100 in August. The indicators refer to different months and are designed for cyclical analysis. This article reports the points as published without converting them into a GDP growth percentage, asserting cause and effect or making a definitive claim about the future. Subsequent monthly releases can show whether the pattern continues."],"key_points":[],"sections":[]},"text":"The coincident indicator rose 0.10 points to 100.0 in July; the leading indicator gained 0.02 in August and remained above its long-term trend.\n\nINEGI’s System of Cyclical Indicators, released on 2 October, reported that the Coincident Indicator reached 100.0 points in July 2026, up 0.10 points from June. The institute uses 100 as the reference line for the long-term trend. July’s reading therefore placed the index at its own long-term trend benchmark; it does not, by itself, imply a particular amount of growth in production or GDP.\n\nThe system contains two composite indicators. The Coincident Indicator is intended to reflect the economy’s general state and possible turning points. The Leading Indicator seeks to signal turning points in the coincident measure ahead of time. In the same release, INEGI put the Leading Indicator at 100.8 in August, 0.02 points higher than in July and above its long-term trend. Because one reading refers to July and the other to August, they should not be treated as two measures for the same month.\n\nComponents of the coincident measure include an indicator of economic activity, industrial activity, retail revenues, permanent workers registered with IMSS, the urban unemployment rate and total imports. The leading measure combines different elements, including manufacturing employment trends, business views of whether it is a good time to invest, the real stock-market index, the Mexico–United States real exchange rate, interest rates and a US equity index. This composition means the result is not based on one survey or one sector; movements in different directions among components affect how the composite should be read.\n\nINEGI’s table shows the Coincident Indicator at 100.0 in July, 0.10 points above June. The level at 100 and the monthly increase together mean the index rose from the previous month and sat on its long-term trend line. But a level and a monthly difference are distinct measures. A value of 100 is not a growth percentage, and a 0.10-point change does not mean GDP rose 0.10%.\n\nThe Leading Indicator moved to 100.8 in August, remaining above the 100 reference. Its 0.02-point monthly increase is small, and the method does not guarantee a future economic outcome. The leading measure is intended to inform turning-point analysis. It should not be presented as a forecast of production, employment, exports or market performance on a specific date. As actual economic data arrive, components and historical index calculations may be updated.\n\nUnder the growth-cycle approach, the system assesses where component cycles stand relative to their respective long-term trends. The 100 line is a benchmark; being above or below it describes position relative to that reference, not a rate of change. INEGI also publishes separate graphs of the Coincident Indicator under the classical business-cycle approach. Since the two approaches use different concepts and interpretive limits, the position in one should not be confused with the recession and expansion definitions of the other.\n\nThe institute gives an important caution: the size of a fall or recovery in the Coincident Indicator should not be treated as a measure of contraction or recovery in economic activity; instead, it indicates the degree of certainty about the economy’s direction. July’s 0.10-point increase is therefore not a direct growth estimate. Likewise, a reading at the 100 threshold is not sufficient on its own to diagnose broad-based expansion or contraction. Direct assessments of production and national income require national accounts and relevant monthly indicators.\n\nThe bulletin shows that the coincident composite rose from June to reach its long-term trend in July, while the leading measure was slightly higher and above 100 in August. The indicators refer to different months and are designed for cyclical analysis. This article reports the points as published without converting them into a GDP growth percentage, asserting cause and effect or making a definitive claim about the future. Subsequent monthly releases can show whether the pattern continues.","corrections":[],"editorial_illustration":{"kind":"symbolic-editorial-illustration","documentary":false,"scope":"section","asset_id":"economy","url":"https://haberpaper.com/assets/illustrations/economy-1536.webp","width":1536,"height":1024,"alt":"Symbolic trading harbour with a cargo ship, containers and a bridge.","language":"en"},"section_illustration":{"kind":"symbolic-editorial-illustration","documentary":false,"scope":"section","asset_id":"economy","url":"https://haberpaper.com/assets/illustrations/economy-1536.webp","width":1536,"height":1024,"alt":"Symbolic trading harbour with a cargo ship, containers and a bridge.","language":"en"}}}