{"version":"1","article":{"id":"japan-tankan-business-conditions-september-2026","slug":"japan-tankan-september-2026-business-conditions-diffusion-index","language":"en","url":"https://haberpaper.com/en/news/japan-tankan-september-2026-business-conditions-diffusion-index","api_url":"https://haberpaper.com/api/v1/articles/japan-tankan-september-2026-business-conditions-diffusion-index?lang=en","title":"Japan’s Tankan business-conditions reading improved in September, while outlook was softer","summary":"The BOJ’s all-enterprise, all-industry diffusion index rose from 18 in June to 21 in September; respondents’ three-month-ahead balance was 15.","category":"economy","region":"world","topics":[],"published_at":"2026-10-04T13:00:06+03:00","modified_at":"2026-10-04T13:00:06+03:00","publication_basis":"publication-record","event_period":"2026-09","event_period_basis":"event-or-reference-period","sources":[{"name":"Bank of Japan","url":"https://www.boj.or.jp/en/statistics/tk/tankan09a.htm","checkedAt":"2026-10-04","publishedAt":"2026-10-01"},{"name":"Bank of Japan Tankan September 2026 Summary PDF","url":"https://www.boj.or.jp/en/statistics/tk/gaiyo/2026/tka2609.pdf","checkedAt":"2026-10-04"},{"name":"Bank of Japan Tankan September 2026 comprehensive data set page","url":"https://www.boj.or.jp/en/statistics/tk/zenyo/2026/all2609.htm","checkedAt":"2026-10-04"},{"name":"Bank of Japan Tankan explanation, April 2026","url":"https://www.boj.or.jp/en/statistics/outline/exp/tk/extk06.htm","checkedAt":"2026-10-04"},{"name":"Bank of Japan Tankan full workbook, September 2026","url":"https://www.boj.or.jp/statistics/tk/zenyo/2026/data/all2609a.xlsx","checkedAt":"2026-10-04"}],"translations":[{"language":"tr","url":"https://haberpaper.com/tr/news/japan-tankan-september-2026-business-conditions-diffusion-index","api_url":"https://haberpaper.com/api/v1/articles/japan-tankan-september-2026-business-conditions-diffusion-index?lang=tr"},{"language":"en","url":"https://haberpaper.com/en/news/japan-tankan-september-2026-business-conditions-diffusion-index","api_url":"https://haberpaper.com/api/v1/articles/japan-tankan-september-2026-business-conditions-diffusion-index?lang=en"},{"language":"ar","url":"https://haberpaper.com/ar/news/japan-tankan-september-2026-business-conditions-diffusion-index","api_url":"https://haberpaper.com/api/v1/articles/japan-tankan-september-2026-business-conditions-diffusion-index?lang=ar"},{"language":"fr","url":"https://haberpaper.com/fr/news/japan-tankan-september-2026-business-conditions-diffusion-index","api_url":"https://haberpaper.com/api/v1/articles/japan-tankan-september-2026-business-conditions-diffusion-index?lang=fr"},{"language":"es","url":"https://haberpaper.com/es/news/japan-tankan-september-2026-business-conditions-diffusion-index","api_url":"https://haberpaper.com/api/v1/articles/japan-tankan-september-2026-business-conditions-diffusion-index?lang=es"}],"data_types":["metrics"],"data":{"version":1,"blocks":[{"id":"tankan-business-conditions-september-2026","type":"metrics","title":{"tr":"BOJ Tankan iş koşulları DI, Eylül 2026","en":"BOJ Tankan business-conditions DI, September 2026","ar":"مؤشر ظروف الأعمال في مسح تانكان لبنك اليابان، سبتمبر 2026","fr":"DI Tankan du BOJ sur les conditions d’activité, septembre 2026","es":"DI Tankan del BOJ sobre condiciones empresariales, septiembre de 2026"},"description":{"tr":"Mevcut koşullar ve katılımcıların üç ay sonrası beklentileri; anket örneklemi ve yanıt oranı.","en":"Current conditions and respondents’ three-month outlook, with survey sample and response rates.","ar":"الظروف الحالية وتوقعات المشاركين لثلاثة أشهر مع حجم العينة ومعدلات الاستجابة.","fr":"Conditions actuelles et perspectives des répondants à trois mois, avec échantillon et taux de réponse.","es":"Condiciones actuales y perspectivas a tres meses de los participantes, con muestra y tasas de respuesta."},"methodology":{"tr":"BOJ 210. Tankan, 26 Ağustos–30 Eylül 2026 yanıt dönemi. DI = olumlu yanıt payı eksi olumsuz yanıt payı; puan, yüzde puanlık denge ve büyüme oranı değildir. Mevcut sonuç ile üç ay sonrası katılımcı tahmini ayrıdır. DI yanıt payları tam sayıya yuvarlanır. Örneklem ana hedef evrenden tabakalı seçilir; 2024 açıklama yöntem notuna göre ana hedef özel, sermayesi en az ¥20m olan, bazı sektörler ve ayrı kapsanan finansal/holding/danışmanlık kuruluşları hariç firmalardır. Beklenti göstergelerinin referans ayı, eylül anketinin üç ay sonrası olan Aralık 2026’dır; bunlar gerçekleşmiş gözlemlerden ayrı öngörü olarak tutulur.","en":"BOJ’s 210th Tankan; responses collected 26 August–30 September 2026. DI equals the share of favorable responses minus the share of unfavorable responses; it is a percentage-point balance, not a growth rate. Current results and respondents’ three-month outlook are separate. DI response shares are rounded to whole numbers. The sample is stratified from the main target population; under the April 2026 methodology, the core target is private firms with capital of at least ¥20 million, with some sectors excluded and financial, holding and consulting entities surveyed separately. Outlook measures use December 2026, three months after the September survey, as their reference month; they remain forecasts distinct from realised observations.","ar":"مسح تانكان رقم 210 للبنك المركزي، جُمعت إجاباته من 26 أغسطس إلى 30 سبتمبر 2026. المؤشر هو نسبة الإجابات المواتية ناقص نسبة غير المواتية؛ إنه رصيد بالنقاط المئوية وليس معدل نمو. ويجب فصل النتيجة الحالية عن توقعات المشاركين لثلاثة أشهر. تُقرب حصص الإجابات إلى أعداد صحيحة. وتُختار العينة طبقيّاً من المجتمع المستهدف؛ ووفق منهج أبريل 2026، يشمل الهدف الأساسي الشركات الخاصة برأس مال لا يقل عن 20 مليون ين، مع استبعاد بعض القطاعات وإجراء مسوح منفصلة للمؤسسات المالية والكيانات القابضة والاستشارية. تستخدم مؤشرات التوقعات ديسمبر 2026، أي بعد ثلاثة أشهر من مسح سبتمبر، شهراً مرجعياً؛ وتبقى توقعات منفصلة عن النتائج المحققة.","fr":"210e enquête Tankan du BOJ ; réponses recueillies du 26 août au 30 septembre 2026. Le DI est la part des réponses favorables moins la part des réponses défavorables ; il s’agit d’un solde en points de pourcentage et non d’un taux de croissance. Les résultats actuels et les perspectives des répondants à trois mois sont distincts. Les parts servant au DI sont arrondies à l’entier. L’échantillon est stratifié à partir de la population cible principale ; selon la méthodologie d’avril 2026, celle-ci comprend les entreprises privées disposant d’au moins 20 millions de yens de capital, certains secteurs étant exclus et les institutions financières, holdings et cabinets de conseil étant étudiés séparément. Les mesures prospectives ont pour mois de référence décembre 2026, trois mois après l’enquête de septembre ; elles restent des prévisions distinctes des résultats réalisés.","es":"210.ª encuesta Tankan del BOJ; respuestas recogidas del 26 de agosto al 30 de septiembre de 2026. El DI es la proporción de respuestas favorables menos la proporción desfavorable; es un saldo en puntos porcentuales, no una tasa de crecimiento. El resultado actual y las perspectivas de los participantes a tres meses son distintos. Las proporciones del DI se redondean a números enteros. La muestra se estratifica desde la población objetivo principal; según la metodología de abril de 2026, comprende empresas privadas con capital de al menos 20 millones de yenes, con algunos sectores excluidos y encuestas separadas para entidades financieras, holdings y consultoras. Las medidas de perspectivas usan diciembre de 2026, tres meses después de la encuesta de septiembre, como mes de referencia; son previsiones separadas de los resultados efectivos."},"items":[{"label":{"tr":"Tüm işletmeler, tüm sektörler: eylül mevcut koşullar DI","en":"All enterprises, all industries: September current-conditions DI","ar":"جميع الشركات والقطاعات: مؤشر الظروف الحالية في سبتمبر","fr":"Toutes entreprises, tous secteurs : DI des conditions actuelles en septembre","es":"Todas las empresas y sectores: DI de condiciones actuales en septiembre"},"value":21,"unit":"percentage points","period":"2026-09","basis":"observed","measure":{"id":"all-enterprises-all-industries-conditions-di","unitCode":"percentage-point","geography":"japan","frequency":"irregular","aggregation":"rate","periodRole":"reference-period"}},{"label":{"tr":"Tüm işletmeler, tüm sektörler: haziran mevcut koşullar DI","en":"All enterprises, all industries: June current-conditions DI","ar":"جميع الشركات والقطاعات: مؤشر الظروف الحالية في يونيو","fr":"Toutes entreprises, tous secteurs : DI des conditions actuelles en juin","es":"Todas las empresas y sectores: DI de condiciones actuales en junio"},"value":18,"unit":"percentage points","period":"2026-06","basis":"observed","measure":{"id":"all-enterprises-all-industries-conditions-di","unitCode":"percentage-point","geography":"japan","frequency":"irregular","aggregation":"rate","periodRole":"reference-period"}},{"label":{"tr":"Tüm işletmeler, tüm sektörler: eylül üç ay sonrası beklenti DI","en":"All enterprises, all industries: September three-month-ahead outlook DI","ar":"جميع الشركات والقطاعات: مؤشر توقعات سبتمبر بعد ثلاثة أشهر","fr":"Toutes entreprises, tous secteurs : DI prospectif à trois mois en septembre","es":"Todas las empresas y sectores: DI de perspectivas a tres meses en septiembre"},"value":15,"unit":"percentage points","period":"2026-12","basis":"forecast","measure":{"id":"all-enterprises-all-industries-outlook-di","unitCode":"percentage-point","geography":"japan","frequency":"irregular","aggregation":"rate","periodRole":"reference-period"}},{"label":{"tr":"Büyük işletmeler, tüm sektörler: eylül mevcut koşullar DI","en":"Large enterprises, all industries: September current-conditions DI","ar":"الشركات الكبيرة، جميع القطاعات: مؤشر الظروف الحالية في سبتمبر","fr":"Grandes entreprises, tous secteurs : DI des conditions actuelles en septembre","es":"Grandes empresas, todos los sectores: DI de condiciones actuales en septiembre"},"value":30,"unit":"percentage points","period":"2026-09","basis":"observed","measure":{"id":"large-all-industries-conditions-di","unitCode":"percentage-point","geography":"japan","frequency":"irregular","aggregation":"rate","periodRole":"reference-period"}},{"label":{"tr":"Büyük işletmeler, tüm sektörler: eylül üç ay sonrası beklenti DI","en":"Large enterprises, all industries: September three-month-ahead outlook DI","ar":"الشركات الكبيرة، جميع القطاعات: مؤشر توقعات سبتمبر بعد ثلاثة أشهر","fr":"Grandes entreprises, tous secteurs : DI prospectif à trois mois en septembre","es":"Grandes empresas, todos los sectores: DI de perspectivas a tres meses en septiembre"},"value":25,"unit":"percentage points","period":"2026-12","basis":"forecast","measure":{"id":"large-all-industries-outlook-di","unitCode":"percentage-point","geography":"japan","frequency":"irregular","aggregation":"rate","periodRole":"reference-period"}},{"label":{"tr":"Orta ölçekli işletmeler, tüm sektörler: eylül mevcut koşullar DI","en":"Medium-sized enterprises, all industries: September current-conditions DI","ar":"الشركات المتوسطة، جميع القطاعات: مؤشر الظروف الحالية في سبتمبر","fr":"Entreprises moyennes, tous secteurs : DI des conditions actuelles en septembre","es":"Empresas medianas, todos los sectores: DI de condiciones actuales en septiembre"},"value":24,"unit":"percentage points","period":"2026-09","basis":"observed","measure":{"id":"medium-all-industries-conditions-di","unitCode":"percentage-point","geography":"japan","frequency":"irregular","aggregation":"rate","periodRole":"reference-period"}},{"label":{"tr":"Orta ölçekli işletmeler, tüm sektörler: eylül üç ay sonrası beklenti DI","en":"Medium-sized enterprises, all industries: September three-month-ahead outlook DI","ar":"الشركات المتوسطة، جميع القطاعات: مؤشر توقعات سبتمبر بعد ثلاثة أشهر","fr":"Entreprises moyennes, tous secteurs : DI prospectif à trois mois en septembre","es":"Empresas medianas, todos los sectores: DI de perspectivas a tres meses en septiembre"},"value":18,"unit":"percentage points","period":"2026-12","basis":"forecast","measure":{"id":"medium-all-industries-outlook-di","unitCode":"percentage-point","geography":"japan","frequency":"irregular","aggregation":"rate","periodRole":"reference-period"}},{"label":{"tr":"Küçük işletmeler, tüm sektörler: eylül mevcut koşullar DI","en":"Small enterprises, all industries: September current-conditions DI","ar":"الشركات الصغيرة، جميع القطاعات: مؤشر الظروف الحالية في سبتمبر","fr":"Petites entreprises, tous secteurs : DI des conditions actuelles en septembre","es":"Pequeñas empresas, todos los sectores: DI de condiciones actuales en septiembre"},"value":15,"unit":"percentage points","period":"2026-09","basis":"observed","measure":{"id":"small-all-industries-conditions-di","unitCode":"percentage-point","geography":"japan","frequency":"irregular","aggregation":"rate","periodRole":"reference-period"}},{"label":{"tr":"Küçük işletmeler, tüm sektörler: eylül üç ay sonrası beklenti DI","en":"Small enterprises, all industries: September three-month-ahead outlook DI","ar":"الشركات الصغيرة، جميع القطاعات: مؤشر توقعات سبتمبر بعد ثلاثة أشهر","fr":"Petites entreprises, tous secteurs : DI prospectif à trois mois en septembre","es":"Pequeñas empresas, todos los sectores: DI de perspectivas a tres meses en septiembre"},"value":11,"unit":"percentage points","period":"2026-12","basis":"forecast","measure":{"id":"small-all-industries-outlook-di","unitCode":"percentage-point","geography":"japan","frequency":"irregular","aggregation":"rate","periodRole":"reference-period"}},{"label":{"tr":"Tüm işletmeler, imalat: eylül mevcut koşullar DI","en":"All enterprises, manufacturing: September current-conditions DI","ar":"جميع الشركات، التصنيع: مؤشر الظروف الحالية في سبتمبر","fr":"Toutes entreprises, industrie manufacturière : DI actuel en septembre","es":"Todas las empresas, manufactura: DI de condiciones actuales en septiembre"},"value":19,"unit":"percentage points","period":"2026-09","basis":"observed","measure":{"id":"all-manufacturing-conditions-di","unitCode":"percentage-point","geography":"japan","frequency":"irregular","aggregation":"rate","periodRole":"reference-period"}},{"label":{"tr":"Tüm işletmeler, imalat: eylül üç ay sonrası beklenti DI","en":"All enterprises, manufacturing: September three-month-ahead outlook DI","ar":"جميع الشركات، التصنيع: مؤشر توقعات سبتمبر بعد ثلاثة أشهر","fr":"Toutes entreprises, industrie manufacturière : DI prospectif à trois mois","es":"Todas las empresas, manufactura: DI de perspectivas a tres meses"},"value":16,"unit":"percentage points","period":"2026-12","basis":"forecast","measure":{"id":"all-manufacturing-outlook-di","unitCode":"percentage-point","geography":"japan","frequency":"irregular","aggregation":"rate","periodRole":"reference-period"}},{"label":{"tr":"Tüm işletmeler, imalat dışı: eylül mevcut koşullar DI","en":"All enterprises, nonmanufacturing: September current-conditions DI","ar":"جميع الشركات، غير التصنيع: مؤشر الظروف الحالية في سبتمبر","fr":"Toutes entreprises, activités non manufacturières : DI actuel en septembre","es":"Todas las empresas, no manufactura: DI de condiciones actuales en septiembre"},"value":20,"unit":"percentage points","period":"2026-09","basis":"observed","measure":{"id":"all-nonmanufacturing-conditions-di","unitCode":"percentage-point","geography":"japan","frequency":"irregular","aggregation":"rate","periodRole":"reference-period"}},{"label":{"tr":"Tüm işletmeler, imalat dışı: eylül üç ay sonrası beklenti DI","en":"All enterprises, nonmanufacturing: September three-month-ahead outlook DI","ar":"جميع الشركات، غير التصنيع: مؤشر توقعات سبتمبر بعد ثلاثة أشهر","fr":"Toutes entreprises, activités non manufacturières : DI prospectif à trois mois","es":"Todas las empresas, no manufactura: DI de perspectivas a tres meses"},"value":16,"unit":"percentage points","period":"2026-12","basis":"forecast","measure":{"id":"all-nonmanufacturing-outlook-di","unitCode":"percentage-point","geography":"japan","frequency":"irregular","aggregation":"rate","periodRole":"reference-period"}},{"label":{"tr":"Ana Tankan örneklem büyüklüğü","en":"Main Tankan sample size","ar":"حجم عينة تانكان الرئيسية","fr":"Taille de l’échantillon principal Tankan","es":"Tamaño de la muestra principal Tankan"},"value":9104,"unit":"count","period":"2026-09","basis":"observed","measure":{"id":"main-sample-enterprises","unitCode":"count","geography":"japan","frequency":"irregular","aggregation":"stock","periodRole":"reference-period"}},{"label":{"tr":"Büyük işletmeler örneklem büyüklüğü","en":"Large-enterprise sample size","ar":"حجم عينة الشركات الكبيرة","fr":"Échantillon des grandes entreprises","es":"Muestra de grandes empresas"},"value":1631,"unit":"count","period":"2026-09","basis":"observed","measure":{"id":"large-sample-enterprises","unitCode":"count","geography":"japan","frequency":"irregular","aggregation":"stock","periodRole":"reference-period"}},{"label":{"tr":"Orta ölçekli işletmeler örneklem büyüklüğü","en":"Medium-sized enterprise sample size","ar":"حجم عينة الشركات المتوسطة","fr":"Échantillon des entreprises moyennes","es":"Muestra de empresas medianas"},"value":2589,"unit":"count","period":"2026-09","basis":"observed","measure":{"id":"medium-sample-enterprises","unitCode":"count","geography":"japan","frequency":"irregular","aggregation":"stock","periodRole":"reference-period"}},{"label":{"tr":"Küçük işletmeler örneklem büyüklüğü","en":"Small-enterprise sample size","ar":"حجم عينة الشركات الصغيرة","fr":"Échantillon des petites entreprises","es":"Muestra de pequeñas empresas"},"value":4884,"unit":"count","period":"2026-09","basis":"observed","measure":{"id":"small-sample-enterprises","unitCode":"count","geography":"japan","frequency":"irregular","aggregation":"stock","periodRole":"reference-period"}},{"label":{"tr":"Ana Tankan yanıt oranı","en":"Main Tankan response rate","ar":"معدل الاستجابة لعينة تانكان الرئيسية","fr":"Taux de réponse de l’échantillon principal","es":"Tasa de respuesta de la muestra principal"},"value":99.4,"unit":"percent","period":"2026-09","basis":"observed","measure":{"id":"main-response-rate","unitCode":"percent","geography":"japan","frequency":"irregular","aggregation":"rate","periodRole":"reference-period"}},{"label":{"tr":"Büyük işletmeler yanıt oranı","en":"Large-enterprise response rate","ar":"معدل استجابة الشركات الكبيرة","fr":"Taux de réponse des grandes entreprises","es":"Tasa de respuesta de grandes empresas"},"value":99,"unit":"percent","period":"2026-09","basis":"observed","measure":{"id":"large-response-rate","unitCode":"percent","geography":"japan","frequency":"irregular","aggregation":"rate","periodRole":"reference-period"}},{"label":{"tr":"Orta ölçekli işletmeler yanıt oranı","en":"Medium-sized enterprise response rate","ar":"معدل استجابة الشركات المتوسطة","fr":"Taux de réponse des entreprises moyennes","es":"Tasa de respuesta de empresas medianas"},"value":99.1,"unit":"percent","period":"2026-09","basis":"observed","measure":{"id":"medium-response-rate","unitCode":"percent","geography":"japan","frequency":"irregular","aggregation":"rate","periodRole":"reference-period"}},{"label":{"tr":"Küçük işletmeler yanıt oranı","en":"Small-enterprise response rate","ar":"معدل استجابة الشركات الصغيرة","fr":"Taux de réponse des petites entreprises","es":"Tasa de respuesta de pequeñas empresas"},"value":99.6,"unit":"percent","period":"2026-09","basis":"observed","measure":{"id":"small-response-rate","unitCode":"percent","geography":"japan","frequency":"irregular","aggregation":"rate","periodRole":"reference-period"}}],"sourceUrls":["https://www.boj.or.jp/en/statistics/tk/tankan09a.htm","https://www.boj.or.jp/en/statistics/tk/gaiyo/2026/tka2609.pdf","https://www.boj.or.jp/en/statistics/tk/zenyo/2026/all2609.htm","https://www.boj.or.jp/en/statistics/outline/exp/tk/extk06.htm","https://www.boj.or.jp/statistics/tk/zenyo/2026/data/all2609a.xlsx"],"updatedAt":"2026-10-04T09:20:06Z"}]},"data_compilations":[{"id":"tankan-business-conditions-september-2026","creator":{"@type":"Organization","@id":"https://haberpaper.com/#organization","name":"Haber Paper","url":"https://haberpaper.com/"},"license":{"@type":"CreativeWork","@id":"https://haberpaper.com/en/data-terms/v1#license","name":"Haber Paper Original Data Compilation License 1.0","url":"https://haberpaper.com/en/data-terms/v1"},"rights_scope":"Haber Paper original data arrangement, labels and methodology notes only; underlying source rights and permissions remain separate.","source_license_url":null}],"data_downloads":[{"id":"tankan-business-conditions-september-2026","formats":{"json":"https://haberpaper.com/api/v1/articles/japan-tankan-september-2026-business-conditions-diffusion-index/data/tankan-business-conditions-september-2026?lang=en&format=json","csv":"https://haberpaper.com/api/v1/articles/japan-tankan-september-2026-business-conditions-diffusion-index/data/tankan-business-conditions-september-2026?lang=en&format=csv"}}],"content":{"paragraphs":["In the Bank of Japan’s September 2026 Tankan survey, firms’ assessment of general business conditions improved from the previous survey. The all-enterprise, all-industry diffusion index rose from 18 in June to 21 in September. This does not mean production or sales grew by 3%. The Tankan “DI” is calculated by subtracting the share of respondents calling conditions unfavorable from the share calling them favorable; it is a balance measured in percentage points. Responses of “not so favorable” are not added to either side of that difference. September’s 21 therefore describes the net balance between favorable and unfavorable judgments by survey respondents about current conditions.","The September DI was above the June actual reading across all three enterprise-size groups. The all-industry balance rose from 29 to 30 among large firms, from 22 to 24 among medium-sized firms, and from 13 to 15 among small firms. Across enterprises of all sizes, manufacturing improved from 14 to 19, while nonmanufacturing edged down from 21 to 20. This variation means the overall 21-point result should not be read as the same movement occurring in every part of the economy. For example, the DI for large manufacturers rose from 22 to 24, while that for large nonmanufacturers declined from 37 to 35. The index tracks a sentiment balance derived from three response options; it is not a realised growth rate for output, turnover, profits or employment.","The survey also asked respondents to judge conditions three months ahead. The September forecast DI for all enterprises and all industries was 15, below the current-conditions reading of 21. Large firms reported 25, medium-sized firms 18 and small firms 11. These are not forecasts made by the BOJ or by Haber Paper; they are the balance of participating firms’ expectations. The September actual-result column records respondents’ assessment at the time of the survey, while the forecast column records their answers about conditions three months later. The table does not show whether those expectations were subsequently realised. The 15-point balance should therefore remain clearly labelled as a respondent outlook, with its forecast horizon stated, rather than presented as a settled outcome.","Responses were collected from 26 August to 30 September. The main all-enterprise sample contained 9,104 firms, and the BOJ reported a 99.4% response rate for this sample. Large enterprises accounted for 1,631 sampled firms and a 99.0% response rate; medium-sized firms, 2,589 and 99.1%; and small firms, 4,884 and 99.6%. The Tankan is not a census of every business in Japan but a stratified sample survey designed to meet statistical criteria. Its main target population is private enterprises in Japan with capital of at least 20 million yen. Financial institutions, business consultants and pure holding companies are covered by separate supplementary surveys, and some industries are excluded. Size groups are based on capital: large firms have at least 1 billion yen; medium-sized firms have 100 million yen to less than 1 billion; and small firms have 20 million yen to less than 100 million.","The BOJ says sample enterprises are generally revised every two or three years and statistical accuracy is regularly reviewed, in principle once a year. A high response rate does not turn the survey into a census or remove the role of nonresponse; the results remain firms’ own judgments. The bank also notes that DI shares are rounded to whole numbers, so changes in industry totals and subgroups may not reconcile exactly. Some long-run series have breaks following earlier methodological changes; users comparing older observations need to account for distinctions such as data before and after 2004. When the BOJ finds an error, it may release corrected data, but later revisions by responding firms do not generally cause the previously released figure to be corrected. The September summary PDF was released on 1 October, with the comprehensive data set following on 2 October."],"key_points":[],"sections":[]},"text":"The BOJ’s all-enterprise, all-industry diffusion index rose from 18 in June to 21 in September; respondents’ three-month-ahead balance was 15.\n\nIn the Bank of Japan’s September 2026 Tankan survey, firms’ assessment of general business conditions improved from the previous survey. The all-enterprise, all-industry diffusion index rose from 18 in June to 21 in September. This does not mean production or sales grew by 3%. The Tankan “DI” is calculated by subtracting the share of respondents calling conditions unfavorable from the share calling them favorable; it is a balance measured in percentage points. Responses of “not so favorable” are not added to either side of that difference. September’s 21 therefore describes the net balance between favorable and unfavorable judgments by survey respondents about current conditions.\n\nThe September DI was above the June actual reading across all three enterprise-size groups. The all-industry balance rose from 29 to 30 among large firms, from 22 to 24 among medium-sized firms, and from 13 to 15 among small firms. Across enterprises of all sizes, manufacturing improved from 14 to 19, while nonmanufacturing edged down from 21 to 20. This variation means the overall 21-point result should not be read as the same movement occurring in every part of the economy. For example, the DI for large manufacturers rose from 22 to 24, while that for large nonmanufacturers declined from 37 to 35. The index tracks a sentiment balance derived from three response options; it is not a realised growth rate for output, turnover, profits or employment.\n\nThe survey also asked respondents to judge conditions three months ahead. The September forecast DI for all enterprises and all industries was 15, below the current-conditions reading of 21. Large firms reported 25, medium-sized firms 18 and small firms 11. These are not forecasts made by the BOJ or by Haber Paper; they are the balance of participating firms’ expectations. The September actual-result column records respondents’ assessment at the time of the survey, while the forecast column records their answers about conditions three months later. The table does not show whether those expectations were subsequently realised. The 15-point balance should therefore remain clearly labelled as a respondent outlook, with its forecast horizon stated, rather than presented as a settled outcome.\n\nResponses were collected from 26 August to 30 September. The main all-enterprise sample contained 9,104 firms, and the BOJ reported a 99.4% response rate for this sample. Large enterprises accounted for 1,631 sampled firms and a 99.0% response rate; medium-sized firms, 2,589 and 99.1%; and small firms, 4,884 and 99.6%. The Tankan is not a census of every business in Japan but a stratified sample survey designed to meet statistical criteria. Its main target population is private enterprises in Japan with capital of at least 20 million yen. Financial institutions, business consultants and pure holding companies are covered by separate supplementary surveys, and some industries are excluded. Size groups are based on capital: large firms have at least 1 billion yen; medium-sized firms have 100 million yen to less than 1 billion; and small firms have 20 million yen to less than 100 million.\n\nThe BOJ says sample enterprises are generally revised every two or three years and statistical accuracy is regularly reviewed, in principle once a year. A high response rate does not turn the survey into a census or remove the role of nonresponse; the results remain firms’ own judgments. The bank also notes that DI shares are rounded to whole numbers, so changes in industry totals and subgroups may not reconcile exactly. Some long-run series have breaks following earlier methodological changes; users comparing older observations need to account for distinctions such as data before and after 2004. When the BOJ finds an error, it may release corrected data, but later revisions by responding firms do not generally cause the previously released figure to be corrected. The September summary PDF was released on 1 October, with the comprehensive data set following on 2 October.","corrections":[],"editorial_illustration":{"kind":"symbolic-editorial-illustration","documentary":false,"scope":"section","asset_id":"economy","url":"https://haberpaper.com/assets/illustrations/economy-1536.webp","width":1536,"height":1024,"alt":"Symbolic trading harbour with a cargo ship, containers and a bridge.","language":"en"},"section_illustration":{"kind":"symbolic-editorial-illustration","documentary":false,"scope":"section","asset_id":"economy","url":"https://haberpaper.com/assets/illustrations/economy-1536.webp","width":1536,"height":1024,"alt":"Symbolic trading harbour with a cargo ship, containers and a bridge.","language":"en"}}}