{"version":"1","article":{"id":"ireland-hicp-flash-estimate-september-2026","slug":"ireland-september-2026-hicp-flash-inflation-estimate","language":"en","url":"https://haberpaper.com/en/news/ireland-september-2026-hicp-flash-inflation-estimate","api_url":"https://haberpaper.com/api/v1/articles/ireland-september-2026-hicp-flash-inflation-estimate?lang=en","title":"Ireland’s HICP flash estimate put annual inflation at 3.9% in September","summary":"Energy prices were estimated to rise 2.9% in the month and 15.3% over the year. The CSO said the figures are provisional and may be revised.","category":"economy","region":"world","topics":[],"published_at":"2026-10-04T13:00:06+03:00","modified_at":"2026-10-04T13:00:06+03:00","publication_basis":"publication-record","event_period":"2026-09","event_period_basis":"event-or-reference-period","sources":[{"name":"Central Statistics Office Ireland","url":"https://www.cso.ie/en/csolatestnews/pressreleases/2026pressreleases/pressstatementflashestimatefortheharmonisedindexofconsumerpricesseptember2026/","checkedAt":"2026-10-04","publishedAt":"2026-10-01"},{"name":"CSO Consumer Price Index and HICP methodology notes","url":"https://www.cso.ie/en/methods/surveybackgroundnotes/consumerpriceindex/","checkedAt":"2026-10-04"},{"name":"CSO Chapter 8: Harmonised Indices of Consumer Prices","url":"https://www.cso.ie/en/methods/prices/consumerpriceindex/methodologydocuments/introductionofupdatedseriesbasedecember2023100/chapter8harmonisedindicesofconsumerpriceshicp/","checkedAt":"2026-10-04"},{"name":"CSO comparison between CPI and HICP","url":"https://www.cso.ie/en/methods/prices/consumerpriceindex/methodologydocuments/comparisonbetweenthecpiandthehicp/","checkedAt":"2026-10-04"}],"translations":[{"language":"tr","url":"https://haberpaper.com/tr/news/ireland-september-2026-hicp-flash-inflation-estimate","api_url":"https://haberpaper.com/api/v1/articles/ireland-september-2026-hicp-flash-inflation-estimate?lang=tr"},{"language":"en","url":"https://haberpaper.com/en/news/ireland-september-2026-hicp-flash-inflation-estimate","api_url":"https://haberpaper.com/api/v1/articles/ireland-september-2026-hicp-flash-inflation-estimate?lang=en"},{"language":"ar","url":"https://haberpaper.com/ar/news/ireland-september-2026-hicp-flash-inflation-estimate","api_url":"https://haberpaper.com/api/v1/articles/ireland-september-2026-hicp-flash-inflation-estimate?lang=ar"},{"language":"fr","url":"https://haberpaper.com/fr/news/ireland-september-2026-hicp-flash-inflation-estimate","api_url":"https://haberpaper.com/api/v1/articles/ireland-september-2026-hicp-flash-inflation-estimate?lang=fr"},{"language":"es","url":"https://haberpaper.com/es/news/ireland-september-2026-hicp-flash-inflation-estimate","api_url":"https://haberpaper.com/api/v1/articles/ireland-september-2026-hicp-flash-inflation-estimate?lang=es"}],"data_types":["metrics"],"data":{"version":1,"blocks":[{"id":"ireland-hicp-flash-rates-september-2026","type":"metrics","title":{"tr":"İrlanda HICP flaş tahmini, Eylül 2026","en":"Ireland HICP flash estimate, September 2026","ar":"التقدير الأولي لمؤشر HICP في أيرلندا، سبتمبر 2026","fr":"Estimation flash de l’IPCH en Irlande, septembre 2026","es":"Estimación rápida del IPCA irlandés, septiembre de 2026"},"description":{"tr":"CSO tarafından yayımlanan aylık ve yıllık tahmini fiyat değişimleri.","en":"Estimated monthly and annual price changes published by the CSO.","ar":"تقديرات تغير الأسعار الشهري والسنوي المنشورة من المكتب.","fr":"Variations estimées des prix sur un mois et un an publiées par le CSO.","es":"Variaciones estimadas de precios mensual y anual publicadas por la CSO."},"methodology":{"tr":"CSO 1 Ekim 2026 flaş HICP basın açıklamasındaki özel toplamlar. Bütün 2026-09 değerleri tahmindir ve nihai sonuçta revize edilebilir; geç kalan bazı fiyatlar imputasyonla tahmin edilmiş olabilir. HICP, AB karşılaştırması için harmonize endekstir; İrlanda’nın resmi enflasyon ölçüsü CPI’dır.","en":"Special aggregates in the CSO flash HICP statement of 1 October 2026. All 2026-09 values are estimates and may be revised in the final result; some late prices may have been imputed. HICP is harmonised for EU comparison; Ireland’s official inflation measure is CPI.","ar":"مجاميع خاصة واردة في بيان CSO للتقدير الأولي في 1 أكتوبر 2026. جميع قيم سبتمبر 2026 تقديرية وقابلة للمراجعة في النتيجة النهائية؛ وقد تكون بعض الأسعار المتأخرة قد قُدرت استكمالياً. المؤشر منسق للمقارنة الأوروبية، بينما CPI هو مقياس التضخم الرسمي في أيرلندا.","fr":"Agrégats particuliers du communiqué flash du CSO du 1er octobre 2026. Toutes les valeurs de septembre 2026 sont des estimations susceptibles d’être révisées dans le résultat définitif ; certains prix tardifs peuvent avoir été imputés. L’IPCH est harmonisé pour les comparaisons européennes ; le CPI est la mesure officielle de l’inflation en Irlande.","es":"Agregados especiales del comunicado rápido de la CSO del 1 de octubre de 2026. Todos los valores de septiembre de 2026 son estimaciones y pueden revisarse en el resultado final; algunos precios pendientes pueden haberse imputado. El IPCA está armonizado para la comparación europea; el CPI es la medida oficial de inflación en Irlanda."},"items":[{"label":{"tr":"Tüm kalemler HICP, yıllık değişim","en":"All-items HICP, annual change","ar":"مؤشر HICP لجميع البنود، التغير السنوي","fr":"IPCH tous postes, variation annuelle","es":"IPCA general, variación anual"},"value":3.9,"unit":"percent","period":"2026-09","basis":"estimate","measure":{"id":"ireland-hicp-all-items-annual-change","unitCode":"percent","geography":"ireland","frequency":"monthly","aggregation":"change","periodRole":"reference-period"}},{"label":{"tr":"Tüm kalemler HICP, aylık değişim","en":"All-items HICP, monthly change","ar":"مؤشر HICP لجميع البنود، التغير الشهري","fr":"IPCH tous postes, variation mensuelle","es":"IPCA general, variación mensual"},"value":0.2,"unit":"percent","period":"2026-09","basis":"estimate","measure":{"id":"ireland-hicp-all-items-monthly-change","unitCode":"percent","geography":"ireland","frequency":"monthly","aggregation":"change","periodRole":"reference-period"}},{"label":{"tr":"Enerji, yıllık değişim","en":"Energy, annual change","ar":"الطاقة، التغير السنوي","fr":"Énergie, variation annuelle","es":"Energía, variación anual"},"value":15.3,"unit":"percent","period":"2026-09","basis":"estimate","measure":{"id":"ireland-hicp-energy-annual-change","unitCode":"percent","geography":"ireland","frequency":"monthly","aggregation":"change","periodRole":"reference-period"}},{"label":{"tr":"Enerji, aylık değişim","en":"Energy, monthly change","ar":"الطاقة، التغير الشهري","fr":"Énergie, variation mensuelle","es":"Energía, variación mensual"},"value":2.9,"unit":"percent","period":"2026-09","basis":"estimate","measure":{"id":"ireland-hicp-energy-monthly-change","unitCode":"percent","geography":"ireland","frequency":"monthly","aggregation":"change","periodRole":"reference-period"}},{"label":{"tr":"Hizmetler, yıllık değişim","en":"Services, annual change","ar":"الخدمات، التغير السنوي","fr":"Services, variation annuelle","es":"Servicios, variación anual"},"value":4.1,"unit":"percent","period":"2026-09","basis":"estimate","measure":{"id":"ireland-hicp-services-annual-change","unitCode":"percent","geography":"ireland","frequency":"monthly","aggregation":"change","periodRole":"reference-period"}},{"label":{"tr":"Hizmetler, aylık değişim","en":"Services, monthly change","ar":"الخدمات، التغير الشهري","fr":"Services, variation mensuelle","es":"Servicios, variación mensual"},"value":-0.4,"unit":"percent","period":"2026-09","basis":"estimate","measure":{"id":"ireland-hicp-services-monthly-change","unitCode":"percent","geography":"ireland","frequency":"monthly","aggregation":"change","periodRole":"reference-period"}},{"label":{"tr":"Enerji ve işlenmemiş gıda hariç, yıllık değişim","en":"Excluding energy and unprocessed food, annual change","ar":"باستثناء الطاقة والأغذية غير المصنعة، التغير السنوي","fr":"Hors énergie et produits non transformés, variation annuelle","es":"Sin energía ni alimentos no elaborados, variación anual"},"value":2.8,"unit":"percent","period":"2026-09","basis":"estimate","measure":{"id":"ireland-hicp-ex-energy-unprocessed-food-annual-change","unitCode":"percent","geography":"ireland","frequency":"monthly","aggregation":"change","periodRole":"reference-period"}},{"label":{"tr":"Gıda, alkol ve tütün hariç, yıllık değişim","en":"Food excluding alcohol and tobacco, annual change","ar":"الغذاء باستثناء الكحول والتبغ، التغير السنوي","fr":"Produits alimentaires hors alcool et tabac, variation annuelle","es":"Alimentos sin alcohol ni tabaco, variación anual"},"value":0.3,"unit":"percent","period":"2026-09","basis":"estimate","measure":{"id":"ireland-hicp-food-ex-alcohol-tobacco-annual-change","unitCode":"percent","geography":"ireland","frequency":"monthly","aggregation":"change","periodRole":"reference-period"}},{"label":{"tr":"Euro Bölgesi HICP, yıllık değişim (karşılaştırma)","en":"Euro area HICP, annual change (comparison)","ar":"مؤشر منطقة اليورو، التغير السنوي (للمقارنة)","fr":"IPCH de la zone euro, variation annuelle (comparaison)","es":"IPCA de la zona euro, variación anual (comparación)"},"value":3.2,"unit":"percent","period":"2026-09","basis":"estimate","measure":{"id":"euro-area-hicp-all-items-annual-change","unitCode":"percent","geography":"euro-area","frequency":"monthly","aggregation":"change","periodRole":"reference-period"}}],"sourceUrls":["https://www.cso.ie/en/csolatestnews/pressreleases/2026pressreleases/pressstatementflashestimatefortheharmonisedindexofconsumerpricesseptember2026/","https://www.cso.ie/en/methods/surveybackgroundnotes/consumerpriceindex/","https://www.cso.ie/en/methods/prices/consumerpriceindex/methodologydocuments/introductionofupdatedseriesbasedecember2023100/chapter8harmonisedindicesofconsumerpriceshicp/","https://www.cso.ie/en/methods/prices/consumerpriceindex/methodologydocuments/comparisonbetweenthecpiandthehicp/"],"updatedAt":"2026-10-04T09:20:49Z"}]},"data_compilations":[{"id":"ireland-hicp-flash-rates-september-2026","creator":{"@type":"Organization","@id":"https://haberpaper.com/#organization","name":"Haber Paper","url":"https://haberpaper.com/"},"license":{"@type":"CreativeWork","@id":"https://haberpaper.com/en/data-terms/v1#license","name":"Haber Paper Original Data Compilation License 1.0","url":"https://haberpaper.com/en/data-terms/v1"},"rights_scope":"Haber Paper original data arrangement, labels and methodology notes only; underlying source rights and permissions remain separate.","source_license_url":null}],"data_downloads":[{"id":"ireland-hicp-flash-rates-september-2026","formats":{"json":"https://haberpaper.com/api/v1/articles/ireland-september-2026-hicp-flash-inflation-estimate/data/ireland-hicp-flash-rates-september-2026?lang=en&format=json","csv":"https://haberpaper.com/api/v1/articles/ireland-september-2026-hicp-flash-inflation-estimate/data/ireland-hicp-flash-rates-september-2026?lang=en&format=csv"}}],"content":{"paragraphs":["Ireland’s Central Statistics Office (CSO) estimated that consumer prices rose by 3.9% between September 2025 and September 2026 in its flash estimate of the Harmonised Index of Consumer Prices (HICP), published on 1 October 2026. The index was estimated to increase by 0.2% from August. The annual rate was higher than the 3.4% reported for August 2026, but September’s figure is not yet the final HICP result. The CSO explicitly said the flash estimates can be revised when final results are published the following month. The 3.9% should therefore not be treated as a settled price increase or as the rise experienced by every household in its own spending. It is a statistical estimate of average price change across a defined consumption basket.","The September components show that the headline combines subgroups moving at different speeds and sometimes in different directions. Energy prices were estimated to rise 2.9% during the month and 15.3% from September 2025. Services prices fell 0.4% month on month but rose 4.1% over the year. Non-energy industrial goods were estimated to increase 0.7% during the month and 0.9% annually. Food categories also differ according to what is included: food excluding alcohol and tobacco was unchanged in the month and up 0.3% over the year; unprocessed food rose 0.6% monthly and 1.0% annually; processed food fell 0.2% monthly but rose 0.7% annually. Food including alcohol and tobacco was unchanged in September and 0.8% higher than a year earlier. These special aggregates should not be conflated with the all-items rate.","Exclusion-based measures often described as “core” inflation also tell different stories. HICP excluding energy and unprocessed food was estimated to be 2.8% higher than a year earlier and 0.1% lower than in August. The measure excluding energy was unchanged in the month and up 2.7% annually. The index excluding energy, food, alcohol and tobacco fell 0.1% monthly and rose 3.1% over 12 months. These are distinct special aggregates in the CSO statement, not interchangeable names for one series, because each excludes a different set of items. The HICP is a weighted average price measure. An annual rate for one component alone does not show its contribution to the overall rate; that calculation requires expenditure weights and index levels. The flash statement does not provide a contribution breakdown alongside this table.","The HICP is compiled under common European Union rules to make consumer inflation comparable across member states. Ireland’s HICP uses the same basic price data as the national CPI, but the two are not identical. The CSO identifies CPI as Ireland’s official measure of inflation and says HICP is designed for cross-country comparison. HICP coverage is narrower than CPI coverage and excludes items such as mortgage interest, building materials, motor taxes, some insurance components, union subscriptions and local property tax. That difference matters when explaining why the two indicators may diverge. Both describe average price movements for a consumption basket; neither fully captures a particular household’s income, spending mix or personal cost of living.","The provisional nature of a flash estimate also has a methodological basis. The CSO’s methods note says that complete price collection and the full quality checks carried out for final results may not be finished to the same extent by the flash deadline; some prices not yet collected can be imputed. The office says flash estimates have often been close to final results historically, while warning that the gap can widen when inflation is higher. The final Irish HICP result was scheduled alongside the CSO’s September CPI release on 8 October. Eurostat’s flash estimate for the euro area, published on 2 October, was 3.2%; that is a separate geographical aggregate, not a substitute for Ireland’s rate. September figures in this report should consequently remain labelled as estimates."],"key_points":[],"sections":[]},"text":"Energy prices were estimated to rise 2.9% in the month and 15.3% over the year. The CSO said the figures are provisional and may be revised.\n\nIreland’s Central Statistics Office (CSO) estimated that consumer prices rose by 3.9% between September 2025 and September 2026 in its flash estimate of the Harmonised Index of Consumer Prices (HICP), published on 1 October 2026. The index was estimated to increase by 0.2% from August. The annual rate was higher than the 3.4% reported for August 2026, but September’s figure is not yet the final HICP result. The CSO explicitly said the flash estimates can be revised when final results are published the following month. The 3.9% should therefore not be treated as a settled price increase or as the rise experienced by every household in its own spending. It is a statistical estimate of average price change across a defined consumption basket.\n\nThe September components show that the headline combines subgroups moving at different speeds and sometimes in different directions. Energy prices were estimated to rise 2.9% during the month and 15.3% from September 2025. Services prices fell 0.4% month on month but rose 4.1% over the year. Non-energy industrial goods were estimated to increase 0.7% during the month and 0.9% annually. Food categories also differ according to what is included: food excluding alcohol and tobacco was unchanged in the month and up 0.3% over the year; unprocessed food rose 0.6% monthly and 1.0% annually; processed food fell 0.2% monthly but rose 0.7% annually. Food including alcohol and tobacco was unchanged in September and 0.8% higher than a year earlier. These special aggregates should not be conflated with the all-items rate.\n\nExclusion-based measures often described as “core” inflation also tell different stories. HICP excluding energy and unprocessed food was estimated to be 2.8% higher than a year earlier and 0.1% lower than in August. The measure excluding energy was unchanged in the month and up 2.7% annually. The index excluding energy, food, alcohol and tobacco fell 0.1% monthly and rose 3.1% over 12 months. These are distinct special aggregates in the CSO statement, not interchangeable names for one series, because each excludes a different set of items. The HICP is a weighted average price measure. An annual rate for one component alone does not show its contribution to the overall rate; that calculation requires expenditure weights and index levels. The flash statement does not provide a contribution breakdown alongside this table.\n\nThe HICP is compiled under common European Union rules to make consumer inflation comparable across member states. Ireland’s HICP uses the same basic price data as the national CPI, but the two are not identical. The CSO identifies CPI as Ireland’s official measure of inflation and says HICP is designed for cross-country comparison. HICP coverage is narrower than CPI coverage and excludes items such as mortgage interest, building materials, motor taxes, some insurance components, union subscriptions and local property tax. That difference matters when explaining why the two indicators may diverge. Both describe average price movements for a consumption basket; neither fully captures a particular household’s income, spending mix or personal cost of living.\n\nThe provisional nature of a flash estimate also has a methodological basis. The CSO’s methods note says that complete price collection and the full quality checks carried out for final results may not be finished to the same extent by the flash deadline; some prices not yet collected can be imputed. The office says flash estimates have often been close to final results historically, while warning that the gap can widen when inflation is higher. The final Irish HICP result was scheduled alongside the CSO’s September CPI release on 8 October. Eurostat’s flash estimate for the euro area, published on 2 October, was 3.2%; that is a separate geographical aggregate, not a substitute for Ireland’s rate. September figures in this report should consequently remain labelled as estimates.","corrections":[],"editorial_illustration":{"kind":"symbolic-editorial-illustration","documentary":false,"scope":"section","asset_id":"economy","url":"https://haberpaper.com/assets/illustrations/economy-1536.webp","width":1536,"height":1024,"alt":"Symbolic trading harbour with a cargo ship, containers and a bridge.","language":"en"},"section_illustration":{"kind":"symbolic-editorial-illustration","documentary":false,"scope":"section","asset_id":"economy","url":"https://haberpaper.com/assets/illustrations/economy-1536.webp","width":1536,"height":1024,"alt":"Symbolic trading harbour with a cargo ship, containers and a bridge.","language":"en"}}}