{"version":"1","article":{"id":"fitch-affirms-kuwait-aa-minus-stable-august-2026","slug":"fitch-affirms-kuwait-aa-minus-stable-august-2026","language":"en","url":"https://haberpaper.com/en/news/fitch-affirms-kuwait-aa-minus-stable-august-2026","api_url":"https://haberpaper.com/api/v1/articles/fitch-affirms-kuwait-aa-minus-stable-august-2026?lang=en","title":"Fitch affirms Kuwait at AA- as oil and transit risks persist","summary":"Fitch cited strong external buffers alongside oil dependence and export-route risks, and published production, budget and debt forecasts.","category":"fiscal","region":"world","topics":[],"published_at":"2026-10-08T18:08:38+03:00","modified_at":"2026-10-08T18:08:38+03:00","publication_basis":"publication-record","event_period":"2026-08-07","event_period_basis":"event-or-reference-period","sources":[{"name":"Fitch Ratings, published by Central Bank of Kuwait","url":"https://www.cbk.gov.kw/en/images/fitch-aug-2026-en-172004_v10_tcm10-172004.pdf","checkedAt":"2026-10-08","publishedAt":"2026-08-07"}],"translations":[{"language":"tr","url":"https://haberpaper.com/tr/news/fitch-affirms-kuwait-aa-minus-stable-august-2026","api_url":"https://haberpaper.com/api/v1/articles/fitch-affirms-kuwait-aa-minus-stable-august-2026?lang=tr"},{"language":"en","url":"https://haberpaper.com/en/news/fitch-affirms-kuwait-aa-minus-stable-august-2026","api_url":"https://haberpaper.com/api/v1/articles/fitch-affirms-kuwait-aa-minus-stable-august-2026?lang=en"},{"language":"ar","url":"https://haberpaper.com/ar/news/fitch-affirms-kuwait-aa-minus-stable-august-2026","api_url":"https://haberpaper.com/api/v1/articles/fitch-affirms-kuwait-aa-minus-stable-august-2026?lang=ar"},{"language":"fr","url":"https://haberpaper.com/fr/news/fitch-affirms-kuwait-aa-minus-stable-august-2026","api_url":"https://haberpaper.com/api/v1/articles/fitch-affirms-kuwait-aa-minus-stable-august-2026?lang=fr"},{"language":"es","url":"https://haberpaper.com/es/news/fitch-affirms-kuwait-aa-minus-stable-august-2026","api_url":"https://haberpaper.com/api/v1/articles/fitch-affirms-kuwait-aa-minus-stable-august-2026?lang=es"}],"data_types":["metrics"],"data":{"version":1,"blocks":[{"id":"fitch-forecasts","type":"metrics","title":{"tr":"Fitch’in Kuveyt görünümü: veri temeli ve projeksiyonlar","en":"Fitch’s Kuwait outlook: data bases and projections","ar":"توقعات فيتش للكويت: أسس البيانات والتوقعات","fr":"Perspectives de Fitch pour le Koweït: bases et projections","es":"Perspectivas de Fitch para Kuwait: bases y proyecciones"},"description":{"tr":"Fitch’in 7 Ağustos 2026 not değerlendirmesindeki seçilmiş petrol ve mali göstergeler.","en":"Selected oil and fiscal indicators from Fitch’s 7 August 2026 review.","ar":"مؤشرات مختارة للنفط والمالية من مراجعة فيتش في 7 أغسطس 2026.","fr":"Indicateurs pétroliers et budgétaires du rapport Fitch du 7 août 2026.","es":"Indicadores petroleros y fiscales del informe de Fitch del 7 de agosto de 2026."},"methodology":{"tr":"Fitch tarafından aktarılan tarihsel üretim değerleri milyon varil/gündür; temmuz değeri yaklaşıktır. FY26 Nisan 2026–Mart 2027, FY28 Nisan 2028–Mart 2029 dönemidir. Fiyat ve mali göstergeler Fitch tahminidir. Yüzdelerin paydası ilgili dönemin GSYH’sidir. Yatırım geliri hariç açık ile tahmini yatırım geliri dahil denge ayrı ölçülerdir. Başabaş petrol fiyatı için yalnız 100 USD/varilin üzeri eşiği verildiğinden kesin değer null olarak korunur.","en":"Historical production values reported by Fitch are million barrels per day; July is approximate. FY26 is April 2026–March 2027 and FY28 April 2028–March 2029. Prices and fiscal indicators are Fitch forecasts. Percentages use the relevant period’s GDP. The deficit excluding investment income and balance including estimated investment income are separate measures. The break-even price is reported only as above USD100/barrel, so its exact value remains null.","ar":"قيم الإنتاج التاريخية التي أوردتها فيتش بملايين البراميل يومياً، وقيمة يوليو تقريبية. تمتد السنة المالية FY26 من أبريل 2026 إلى مارس 2027 وFY28 من أبريل 2028 إلى مارس 2029. الأسعار والمؤشرات المالية توقعات لفيتش. مقام النسب هو الناتج المحلي للفترة المعنية. العجز دون دخل الاستثمار والرصيد مع دخل الاستثمار المقدر مقياسان منفصلان. سعر التعادل فوق 100 دولار للبرميل فقط، لذا تبقى قيمته الدقيقة فارغة.","fr":"Les volumes historiques rapportés par Fitch sont en millions de barils par jour ; juillet est approximatif. FY26 couvre avril 2026–mars 2027 et FY28 avril 2028–mars 2029. Les prix et indicateurs budgétaires sont des prévisions de Fitch. Les pourcentages ont pour dénominateur le PIB de la période. Le déficit hors revenus d’investissement et le solde incluant ces revenus estimés sont distincts. Le seuil de rentabilité dépasse 100 USD/baril ; sa valeur exacte reste nulle.","es":"La producción histórica citada por Fitch está en millones de barriles diarios; julio es aproximado. FY26 abarca abril de 2026–marzo de 2027 y FY28 abril de 2028–marzo de 2029. Los precios y las cifras fiscales son previsiones de Fitch. Los porcentajes utilizan el PIB del periodo. El déficit sin ingresos de inversión y el saldo con ingresos estimados son medidas distintas. El precio de equilibrio solo se sitúa por encima de 100 USD/barril; su valor exacto queda nulo."},"sourceUrls":["https://www.cbk.gov.kw/en/images/fitch-aug-2026-en-172004_v10_tcm10-172004.pdf"],"updatedAt":"2026-10-07T23:22:21+00:00","items":[{"label":{"tr":"Mart–mayıs ortalama ham petrol üretimi","en":"March–May average crude production","ar":"متوسط إنتاج الخام من مارس إلى مايو","fr":"Production moyenne de brut de mars à mai","es":"Producción media de crudo de marzo a mayo"},"value":0.78,"unit":"million barrels/day","period":"2026-05","basis":"observed","measure":{"id":"kuwait-fitch-crude-output-history","unitCode":"million-barrels-per-day","geography":"kuwait","frequency":"irregular","aggregation":"rate","periodRole":"reference-period"},"periodStart":"2026-03"},{"label":{"tr":"Haziran ham petrol üretimi","en":"June crude production","ar":"إنتاج الخام في يونيو","fr":"Production de brut en juin","es":"Producción de crudo en junio"},"value":1.65,"unit":"million barrels/day","period":"2026-06","basis":"observed","measure":{"id":"kuwait-fitch-crude-output-history","unitCode":"million-barrels-per-day","geography":"kuwait","frequency":"monthly","aggregation":"rate","periodRole":"reference-period"}},{"label":{"tr":"Temmuz yaklaşık ham petrol üretimi","en":"Approximate July crude production","ar":"إنتاج الخام التقريبي في يوليو","fr":"Production approximative de brut en juillet","es":"Producción aproximada de crudo en julio"},"value":2,"unit":"million barrels/day","period":"2026-07","basis":"estimate","measure":{"id":"kuwait-fitch-crude-output-history","unitCode":"million-barrels-per-day","geography":"kuwait","frequency":"monthly","aggregation":"rate","periodRole":"reference-period"}},{"label":{"tr":"FY26 ortalama petrol fiyatı tahmini","en":"FY26 average oil-price forecast","ar":"توقع متوسط سعر النفط للسنة المالية FY26","fr":"Prévision du prix moyen du pétrole FY26","es":"Previsión del precio medio del petróleo FY26"},"value":81.4,"unit":"USD/barrel","period":"2027-03","basis":"forecast","measure":{"id":"kuwait-fitch-fiscal-year-average-oil-price","unitCode":"usd-per-barrel","geography":"kuwait","frequency":"irregular","aggregation":"rate","periodRole":"reference-period"},"periodStart":"2026-04"},{"label":{"tr":"FY26 başabaş petrol fiyatı: 100 USD/varilin üzeri; kesin değer verilmedi","en":"FY26 break-even oil price: above USD100/barrel; exact value not reported","ar":"سعر تعادل FY26 فوق 100 دولار للبرميل؛ القيمة الدقيقة غير منشورة","fr":"Seuil de rentabilité FY26 : supérieur à 100 USD/baril ; valeur exacte non publiée","es":"Precio de equilibrio FY26: superior a 100 USD/barril; valor exacto no publicado"},"value":null,"unit":"USD/barrel","period":"2027-03","basis":"forecast","measure":{"id":"kuwait-fitch-oil-breakeven-ex-investment-income","unitCode":"usd-per-barrel","geography":"kuwait","frequency":"irregular","aggregation":"rate","periodRole":"reference-period"},"periodStart":"2026-04"},{"label":{"tr":"FY26 yatırım geliri hariç yaklaşık açık/GSYH tahmini","en":"FY26 approximate deficit/GDP forecast, excluding investment income","ar":"توقع عجز FY26 التقريبي إلى الناتج دون دخل الاستثمار","fr":"Prévision du déficit approximatif/PIB FY26 hors revenus d’investissement","es":"Previsión del déficit aproximado/PIB FY26 sin ingresos de inversión"},"value":19,"unit":"percent","period":"2027-03","basis":"forecast","measure":{"id":"kuwait-fitch-fiscal-deficit-ex-investment-income-gdp","unitCode":"percent","geography":"kuwait","frequency":"irregular","aggregation":"rate","periodRole":"reference-period"},"periodStart":"2026-04"},{"label":{"tr":"FY26 tahmini yatırım geliri dahil fazla/GSYH öngörüsü","en":"FY26 surplus/GDP forecast, including estimated investment income","ar":"توقع فائض FY26 إلى الناتج مع دخل الاستثمار المقدر","fr":"Prévision de l’excédent/PIB FY26 incluant les revenus d’investissement estimés","es":"Previsión del superávit/PIB FY26 con ingresos de inversión estimados"},"value":1.7,"unit":"percent","period":"2027-03","basis":"forecast","measure":{"id":"kuwait-fitch-fiscal-surplus-inc-estimated-investment-income-gdp","unitCode":"percent","geography":"kuwait","frequency":"irregular","aggregation":"rate","periodRole":"reference-period"},"periodStart":"2026-04"},{"label":{"tr":"2026 net egemen dış varlıklar/GSYH tahmini","en":"2026 sovereign net foreign assets/GDP forecast","ar":"توقع صافي الأصول الأجنبية السيادية إلى الناتج في 2026","fr":"Prévision des actifs extérieurs souverains nets/PIB en 2026","es":"Previsión de activos externos soberanos netos/PIB de 2026"},"value":668,"unit":"percent","period":"2026","basis":"forecast","measure":{"id":"kuwait-fitch-sovereign-net-foreign-assets-gdp","unitCode":"percent","geography":"kuwait","frequency":"annual","aggregation":"rate","periodRole":"reference-period"}},{"label":{"tr":"FY28 sonu kamu borcu/GSYH tahmini","en":"End-FY28 government debt/GDP forecast","ar":"توقع الدين الحكومي إلى الناتج بنهاية FY28","fr":"Prévision de la dette publique/PIB fin FY28","es":"Previsión de deuda pública/PIB al cierre de FY28"},"value":38,"unit":"percent","period":"2029-03","basis":"forecast","measure":{"id":"kuwait-fitch-government-debt-gdp","unitCode":"percent","geography":"kuwait","frequency":"irregular","aggregation":"rate","periodRole":"reference-period"}}]}]},"data_compilations":[{"id":"fitch-forecasts","creator":{"@type":"Organization","@id":"https://haberpaper.com/#organization","name":"Haber Paper","url":"https://haberpaper.com/"},"license":{"@type":"CreativeWork","@id":"https://haberpaper.com/en/data-terms/v1#license","name":"Haber Paper Original Data Compilation License 1.0","url":"https://haberpaper.com/en/data-terms/v1"},"rights_scope":"Haber Paper original data arrangement, labels and methodology notes only; underlying source rights and permissions remain separate.","source_license_url":null}],"data_downloads":[{"id":"fitch-forecasts","formats":{"json":"https://haberpaper.com/api/v1/articles/fitch-affirms-kuwait-aa-minus-stable-august-2026/data/fitch-forecasts?lang=en&format=json","csv":"https://haberpaper.com/api/v1/articles/fitch-affirms-kuwait-aa-minus-stable-august-2026/data/fitch-forecasts?lang=en&format=csv"}}],"content":{"paragraphs":["Fitch Ratings affirmed Kuwait’s Long-Term Issuer Default Ratings at AA- with a Stable Outlook on 7 August. Its review weighed strong fiscal and external balance sheets against heavy oil dependence, weaker governance than peers, and a costly welfare system and large public sector. This is a rating agency’s assessment, not an official government forecast or guarantee. The report mixes historical estimates, observed data and forecasts, so those bases need to remain distinct when its figures are cited.","Fitch identified access to oil exports through the Strait of Hormuz as a key vulnerability. It said production had fallen to 0.78 million barrels per day in March-May 2026, then recovered to 1.65 million in June and about 2 million in July. The agency forecast average crude production of 2 million barrels per day in fiscal year ending March 2027. These figures refer to the report’s periods and forecast horizon; they should not be treated as live or final data. Fitch also said uncertainty over transit conditions remained high.","For FY26, Fitch forecast an average Kuwait oil price of USD 81.4 per barrel and said the fiscal break-even price, excluding investment income, would remain above USD 100. Under the government’s reporting convention, which excludes Fitch’s estimate of Kuwait Investment Authority investment income, the agency expected the deficit to widen to about 19% of GDP. It separately estimated that including KIA investment income could produce an overall fiscal surplus of 1.7% of GDP. Those balances use different income coverage and cannot be compared as if they were the same measure.","Fitch projected sovereign net foreign assets at 668% of GDP in 2026, compared with an estimated 652% in 2025. It also expected government debt to rise from 2.9% of GDP in FY24 to 38% by end-FY28, still below its projected 2028 AA median of 51.5%. These are agency estimates and forecasts, not observed results. The report notes that KIA assets are not officially reported and that Fitch estimates them using assumptions informed by transfers, returns and other benchmarks.","The rating rationale therefore combines a buffer against shocks with risks from oil exports, public spending and borrowing needs. Fitch listed geopolitical escalation or prolonged export disruption among potential downside factors. It said an upgrade would require evidence of progress on long-term fiscal challenges and lower geopolitical risk. These conditions do not mean a future rating change is scheduled. The projections depend on Fitch’s assumptions; actual outcomes can differ with oil prices, production, transit access and fiscal execution."],"key_points":[],"sections":[]},"text":"Fitch cited strong external buffers alongside oil dependence and export-route risks, and published production, budget and debt forecasts.\n\nFitch Ratings affirmed Kuwait’s Long-Term Issuer Default Ratings at AA- with a Stable Outlook on 7 August. Its review weighed strong fiscal and external balance sheets against heavy oil dependence, weaker governance than peers, and a costly welfare system and large public sector. This is a rating agency’s assessment, not an official government forecast or guarantee. The report mixes historical estimates, observed data and forecasts, so those bases need to remain distinct when its figures are cited.\n\nFitch identified access to oil exports through the Strait of Hormuz as a key vulnerability. It said production had fallen to 0.78 million barrels per day in March-May 2026, then recovered to 1.65 million in June and about 2 million in July. The agency forecast average crude production of 2 million barrels per day in fiscal year ending March 2027. These figures refer to the report’s periods and forecast horizon; they should not be treated as live or final data. Fitch also said uncertainty over transit conditions remained high.\n\nFor FY26, Fitch forecast an average Kuwait oil price of USD 81.4 per barrel and said the fiscal break-even price, excluding investment income, would remain above USD 100. Under the government’s reporting convention, which excludes Fitch’s estimate of Kuwait Investment Authority investment income, the agency expected the deficit to widen to about 19% of GDP. It separately estimated that including KIA investment income could produce an overall fiscal surplus of 1.7% of GDP. Those balances use different income coverage and cannot be compared as if they were the same measure.\n\nFitch projected sovereign net foreign assets at 668% of GDP in 2026, compared with an estimated 652% in 2025. It also expected government debt to rise from 2.9% of GDP in FY24 to 38% by end-FY28, still below its projected 2028 AA median of 51.5%. These are agency estimates and forecasts, not observed results. The report notes that KIA assets are not officially reported and that Fitch estimates them using assumptions informed by transfers, returns and other benchmarks.\n\nThe rating rationale therefore combines a buffer against shocks with risks from oil exports, public spending and borrowing needs. Fitch listed geopolitical escalation or prolonged export disruption among potential downside factors. It said an upgrade would require evidence of progress on long-term fiscal challenges and lower geopolitical risk. These conditions do not mean a future rating change is scheduled. The projections depend on Fitch’s assumptions; actual outcomes can differ with oil prices, production, transit access and fiscal execution.","corrections":[],"editorial_illustration":{"kind":"symbolic-editorial-illustration","documentary":false,"scope":"section","asset_id":"fiscal","url":"https://haberpaper.com/assets/illustrations/fiscal-1536.webp","width":1536,"height":1024,"alt":"Symbolic public finance illustration with a civic building, balanced scale and closed books.","language":"en"},"section_illustration":{"kind":"symbolic-editorial-illustration","documentary":false,"scope":"section","asset_id":"fiscal","url":"https://haberpaper.com/assets/illustrations/fiscal-1536.webp","width":1536,"height":1024,"alt":"Symbolic public finance illustration with a civic building, balanced scale and closed books.","language":"en"}}}