{"version":"1","article":{"id":"bulgaria-inflation-flash-estimate-september-2026","slug":"bulgaria-inflation-flash-estimate-september-2026","language":"en","url":"https://haberpaper.com/en/news/bulgaria-inflation-flash-estimate-september-2026","api_url":"https://haberpaper.com/api/v1/articles/bulgaria-inflation-flash-estimate-september-2026?lang=en","title":"Bulgaria’s September flash estimate puts annual inflation at 5.6%","summary":"NSI estimated a 0.3% monthly CPI decline; HICP annual inflation was also 5.6%. Final data were scheduled for 14 October.","category":"economy","region":"world","topics":[],"published_at":"2026-10-04T13:00:06+03:00","modified_at":"2026-10-04T13:00:06+03:00","publication_basis":"publication-record","event_period":"2026-09","event_period_basis":"event-or-reference-period","sources":[{"name":"National Statistical Institute of Bulgaria (NSI)","url":"https://www.nsi.bg/en/press-release/inflation-and-consumer-price-indices-9356","checkedAt":"2026-10-04","publishedAt":"2026-10-01"}],"translations":[{"language":"tr","url":"https://haberpaper.com/tr/news/bulgaria-inflation-flash-estimate-september-2026","api_url":"https://haberpaper.com/api/v1/articles/bulgaria-inflation-flash-estimate-september-2026?lang=tr"},{"language":"en","url":"https://haberpaper.com/en/news/bulgaria-inflation-flash-estimate-september-2026","api_url":"https://haberpaper.com/api/v1/articles/bulgaria-inflation-flash-estimate-september-2026?lang=en"},{"language":"ar","url":"https://haberpaper.com/ar/news/bulgaria-inflation-flash-estimate-september-2026","api_url":"https://haberpaper.com/api/v1/articles/bulgaria-inflation-flash-estimate-september-2026?lang=ar"},{"language":"fr","url":"https://haberpaper.com/fr/news/bulgaria-inflation-flash-estimate-september-2026","api_url":"https://haberpaper.com/api/v1/articles/bulgaria-inflation-flash-estimate-september-2026?lang=fr"},{"language":"es","url":"https://haberpaper.com/es/news/bulgaria-inflation-flash-estimate-september-2026","api_url":"https://haberpaper.com/api/v1/articles/bulgaria-inflation-flash-estimate-september-2026?lang=es"}],"data_types":["metrics"],"data":{"version":1,"blocks":[{"id":"bulgaria-september-2026-flash-inflation","type":"metrics","title":{"tr":"Bulgaristan eylül 2026 enflasyon flaş tahmini","en":"Bulgaria September 2026 flash inflation estimate","ar":"التقدير الأولي لتضخم بلغاريا في سبتمبر 2026","fr":"Estimation flash de l’inflation bulgare, septembre 2026","es":"Estimación preliminar de la inflación búlgara, septiembre de 2026"},"description":{"tr":"NSI’nin TÜFE, HICP ve en düşük gelirli beşte birlik grup için küçük sepet tahminleri.","en":"NSI estimates for CPI, HICP and the small basket for the lowest-income fifth.","ar":"تقديرات المعهد للمؤشر الوطني والمنسق ولسلة خُمس الدخل الأدنى.","fr":"Estimations du NSI pour l’IPC, l’IPCH et le panier du quintile aux revenus les plus faibles.","es":"Estimaciones del NSI para el IPC, el IAPC y la cesta del quintil de menores ingresos."},"methodology":{"tr":"TÜFE, HICP ve küçük sepet değerleri NSI’nin 1 Ekim 2026 tarihli eylül flaş tahminidir; planlanan fiyat kayıtlarının yaklaşık %90’ını kapsar ve kalan gözlemler nihai hesaba eklenir. Nihai yayın 14 Ekim için planlanmıştır. Aylık oran önceki aya, yıllık oran önceki yılın aynı ayına göre değişimdir.","en":"CPI, HICP and small-basket values are NSI flash estimates for September published 1 October 2026; registered prices represent about 90% of planned September registrations and remaining observations enter the final calculation. Final release was scheduled for 14 October. Monthly rates compare with the prior month; annual rates with the same month one year earlier.","ar":"قيم المؤشر الوطني والمنسق والسلة الصغيرة تقديرات أولية لشهر سبتمبر نشرها المعهد في 1 أكتوبر 2026؛ وتمثل الأسعار المسجلة نحو 90% من التسجيلات المخطط لها، وتدخل بقية المشاهدات في الحساب النهائي. كان النشر النهائي مقرراً في 14 أكتوبر. تقارن المعدلات الشهرية بالشهر السابق والسنوية بالشهر نفسه من العام السابق.","fr":"Les valeurs de l’IPC, de l’IPCH et du petit panier sont les estimations flash de septembre publiées le 1er octobre 2026 ; les prix enregistrés couvrent environ 90 % des relevés prévus et les observations restantes entreront dans le calcul final. La publication définitive était prévue le 14 octobre. Les taux mensuels comparent au mois précédent et les taux annuels au même mois un an plus tôt.","es":"Los valores del IPC, el IAPC y la cesta pequeña son estimaciones preliminares de septiembre publicadas el 1 de octubre de 2026; los precios registrados representan alrededor del 90% de las observaciones previstas y los restantes se incluirán en el cálculo final. La publicación definitiva estaba prevista para el 14 de octubre. Las tasas mensuales comparan con el mes previo y las anuales con el mismo mes del año anterior."},"items":[{"label":{"tr":"TÜFE aylık değişim tahmini","en":"CPI monthly change estimate","ar":"تقدير التغير الشهري للمؤشر الوطني","fr":"Estimation mensuelle de l’IPC","es":"Estimación mensual del IPC"},"value":-0.3,"unit":"percent","period":"2026-09","basis":"estimate","measure":{"id":"bulgaria-cpi-monthly","unitCode":"percent","geography":"bulgaria","frequency":"monthly","aggregation":"rate","periodRole":"reference-period"}},{"label":{"tr":"TÜFE yıllık değişim tahmini","en":"CPI annual change estimate","ar":"تقدير التغير السنوي للمؤشر الوطني","fr":"Estimation annuelle de l’IPC","es":"Estimación anual del IPC"},"value":5.6,"unit":"percent","period":"2026-09","basis":"estimate","measure":{"id":"bulgaria-cpi-annual","unitCode":"percent","geography":"bulgaria","frequency":"monthly","aggregation":"rate","periodRole":"reference-period"}},{"label":{"tr":"HICP aylık değişim tahmini","en":"HICP monthly change estimate","ar":"تقدير التغير الشهري للمؤشر المنسق","fr":"Estimation mensuelle de l’IPCH","es":"Estimación mensual del IAPC"},"value":-0.1,"unit":"percent","period":"2026-09","basis":"estimate","measure":{"id":"bulgaria-hicp-monthly","unitCode":"percent","geography":"bulgaria","frequency":"monthly","aggregation":"rate","periodRole":"reference-period"}},{"label":{"tr":"HICP yıllık değişim tahmini","en":"HICP annual change estimate","ar":"تقدير التغير السنوي للمؤشر المنسق","fr":"Estimation annuelle de l’IPCH","es":"Estimación anual del IAPC"},"value":5.6,"unit":"percent","period":"2026-09","basis":"estimate","measure":{"id":"bulgaria-hicp-annual","unitCode":"percent","geography":"bulgaria","frequency":"monthly","aggregation":"rate","periodRole":"reference-period"}},{"label":{"tr":"En düşük gelirli beşte birlik kesim küçük sepet, aylık","en":"Lowest-income fifth small basket, monthly","ar":"السلة الصغيرة لخُمس الدخل الأدنى، شهرياً","fr":"Petit panier du quintile aux revenus les plus faibles, mensuel","es":"Cesta pequeña del quintil de menores ingresos, mensual"},"value":0.2,"unit":"percent","period":"2026-09","basis":"estimate","measure":{"id":"bulgaria-pisb-monthly","unitCode":"percent","geography":"bulgaria","frequency":"monthly","aggregation":"rate","periodRole":"reference-period"}},{"label":{"tr":"En düşük gelirli beşte birlik kesim küçük sepet, yıllık","en":"Lowest-income fifth small basket, annual","ar":"السلة الصغيرة لخُمس الدخل الأدنى، سنوياً","fr":"Petit panier du quintile aux revenus les plus faibles, annuel","es":"Cesta pequeña del quintil de menores ingresos, anual"},"value":1.9,"unit":"percent","period":"2026-09","basis":"estimate","measure":{"id":"bulgaria-pisb-annual","unitCode":"percent","geography":"bulgaria","frequency":"monthly","aggregation":"rate","periodRole":"reference-period"}},{"label":{"tr":"TÜFE rekreasyon, spor ve kültür","en":"CPI recreation, sport and culture","ar":"المؤشر الوطني: الترفيه والرياضة والثقافة","fr":"IPC : loisirs, sport et culture","es":"IPC: ocio, deporte y cultura"},"value":-10.4,"unit":"percent","period":"2026-09","basis":"estimate","measure":{"id":"bulgaria-cpi-recreation-monthly","unitCode":"percent","geography":"bulgaria","frequency":"monthly","aggregation":"rate","periodRole":"reference-period"}},{"label":{"tr":"TÜFE ulaştırma","en":"CPI transport","ar":"المؤشر الوطني: النقل","fr":"IPC : transports","es":"IPC: transporte"},"value":3.4,"unit":"percent","period":"2026-09","basis":"estimate","measure":{"id":"bulgaria-cpi-transport-monthly","unitCode":"percent","geography":"bulgaria","frequency":"monthly","aggregation":"rate","periodRole":"reference-period"}},{"label":{"tr":"HICP restoran ve konaklama","en":"HICP restaurants and accommodation","ar":"المؤشر المنسق: المطاعم والإقامة","fr":"IPCH : restaurants et hébergement","es":"IAPC: restaurantes y alojamiento"},"value":-4.3,"unit":"percent","period":"2026-09","basis":"estimate","measure":{"id":"bulgaria-hicp-restaurants-monthly","unitCode":"percent","geography":"bulgaria","frequency":"monthly","aggregation":"rate","periodRole":"reference-period"}},{"label":{"tr":"Küçük sepet gıda","en":"Small basket food","ar":"السلة الصغيرة: الغذاء","fr":"Petit panier : alimentation","es":"Cesta pequeña: alimentos"},"value":0.7,"unit":"percent","period":"2026-09","basis":"estimate","measure":{"id":"bulgaria-small-basket-food-monthly","unitCode":"percent","geography":"bulgaria","frequency":"monthly","aggregation":"rate","periodRole":"reference-period"}},{"label":{"tr":"Küçük sepet hizmetler","en":"Small basket services","ar":"السلة الصغيرة: الخدمات","fr":"Petit panier : services","es":"Cesta pequeña: servicios"},"value":0.1,"unit":"percent","period":"2026-09","basis":"estimate","measure":{"id":"bulgaria-small-basket-services-monthly","unitCode":"percent","geography":"bulgaria","frequency":"monthly","aggregation":"rate","periodRole":"reference-period"}},{"label":{"tr":"Küçük sepet gıda dışı ürünler","en":"Small basket non-food products","ar":"السلة الصغيرة: المنتجات غير الغذائية","fr":"Petit panier : produits non alimentaires","es":"Cesta pequeña: productos no alimentarios"},"value":-0.7,"unit":"percent","period":"2026-09","basis":"estimate","measure":{"id":"bulgaria-small-basket-nonfood-monthly","unitCode":"percent","geography":"bulgaria","frequency":"monthly","aggregation":"rate","periodRole":"reference-period"}}],"sourceUrls":["https://www.nsi.bg/en/press-release/inflation-and-consumer-price-indices-9356"],"updatedAt":"2026-10-04T02:09:47Z"}]},"data_compilations":[{"id":"bulgaria-september-2026-flash-inflation","creator":{"@type":"Organization","@id":"https://haberpaper.com/#organization","name":"Haber Paper","url":"https://haberpaper.com/"},"license":{"@type":"CreativeWork","@id":"https://haberpaper.com/en/data-terms/v1#license","name":"Haber Paper Original Data Compilation License 1.0","url":"https://haberpaper.com/en/data-terms/v1"},"rights_scope":"Haber Paper original data arrangement, labels and methodology notes only; underlying source rights and permissions remain separate.","source_license_url":null}],"data_downloads":[{"id":"bulgaria-september-2026-flash-inflation","formats":{"json":"https://haberpaper.com/api/v1/articles/bulgaria-inflation-flash-estimate-september-2026/data/bulgaria-september-2026-flash-inflation?lang=en&format=json","csv":"https://haberpaper.com/api/v1/articles/bulgaria-inflation-flash-estimate-september-2026/data/bulgaria-september-2026-flash-inflation?lang=en&format=csv"}}],"content":{"paragraphs":["Bulgaria’s National Statistical Institute (NSI) published a flash estimate for September consumer prices on 1 October 2026. The headline Consumer Price Index (CPI) was estimated to fall 0.3% from August, while the annual rate was put at 5.6%. For the Harmonised Index of Consumer Prices (HICP), the estimated monthly change was minus 0.1% and the annual rate was also 5.6%. These are not final results. NSI says the estimate uses registered prices covering about 90% of all planned registrations for September; the remaining observations will be included in the final calculation. The final September release was scheduled for 14 October. September figures should therefore continue to be identified as estimates.","The annual rate of 5.6% and the monthly CPI estimate of minus 0.3% answer different questions. Annual inflation compares September 2026 prices with September 2025; the monthly rate compares September with August. An estimated fall over one month does not mean prices declined over the full year. CPI and HICP are also separate measures: CPI is Bulgaria’s national consumer-price index, while HICP is harmonised to support comparisons between countries. The same rounded annual estimate in this release does not prove that the two indices have identical baskets, coverage or methods. Their different monthly estimates are another reason to keep the series distinct. Neither rate measures the absolute price level or exactly reproduces each household’s own spending experience.","In the CPI breakdown, the largest estimated monthly falls were recreation, sport and culture, down 10.4%; restaurants and accommodation services, down 1.1%; and furnishings, household equipment and routine household maintenance, down 0.5%. The largest estimated increases were transport, up 3.4%; education services, up 3.2%; and alcoholic beverages and tobacco, up 1.1%. HICP showed restaurants and accommodation down 4.3%, recreation down 3.3%, and furnishings down 0.2%; education rose 3.2%, transport 1.7%, and alcohol and tobacco 1.0%. These are selected category movements highlighted by NSI. They are not a complete list of prices and do not show each group’s contribution in percentage points to the headline index.","NSI also reported a Price Index of a Small Basket for households in the lowest-income fifth. The September flash estimate put its monthly increase at 0.2% and its annual increase at 1.9%. Within that basket, food prices were estimated to rise 0.7% from August and services 0.1%, while non-food products fell 0.7%. This indicator follows a specified basket aimed at a defined low-income group; its scope is not the same as headline CPI or HICP. It does not mean that every low-income household buys identical quantities or faces exactly the same rate in its own budget. The release provides no household-level observations. The small-basket estimate is therefore a complementary measure with its own denominator, not a replacement for Bulgaria’s national consumer inflation figures.","The central limitation is that this is provisional information. Coverage of about 90% describes the share of planned price registrations represented by data available for the flash calculation. It is not a claim that prices are known with 90% accuracy, or that the unobserved registrations cannot affect the final result. The remaining prices may change the index when they are incorporated. Monthly and annual rates use different reference periods; category rates should not be confused with index weights or contributions. Adding selected category rates does not recreate the headline CPI or HICP. The release also does not establish why prices moved, how every person’s real income changed, or what policy action should follow. This article records NSI’s 1 October estimate and its stated method. The scheduled 14 October final release is the source for settled September figures."],"key_points":[],"sections":[]},"text":"NSI estimated a 0.3% monthly CPI decline; HICP annual inflation was also 5.6%. Final data were scheduled for 14 October.\n\nBulgaria’s National Statistical Institute (NSI) published a flash estimate for September consumer prices on 1 October 2026. The headline Consumer Price Index (CPI) was estimated to fall 0.3% from August, while the annual rate was put at 5.6%. For the Harmonised Index of Consumer Prices (HICP), the estimated monthly change was minus 0.1% and the annual rate was also 5.6%. These are not final results. NSI says the estimate uses registered prices covering about 90% of all planned registrations for September; the remaining observations will be included in the final calculation. The final September release was scheduled for 14 October. September figures should therefore continue to be identified as estimates.\n\nThe annual rate of 5.6% and the monthly CPI estimate of minus 0.3% answer different questions. Annual inflation compares September 2026 prices with September 2025; the monthly rate compares September with August. An estimated fall over one month does not mean prices declined over the full year. CPI and HICP are also separate measures: CPI is Bulgaria’s national consumer-price index, while HICP is harmonised to support comparisons between countries. The same rounded annual estimate in this release does not prove that the two indices have identical baskets, coverage or methods. Their different monthly estimates are another reason to keep the series distinct. Neither rate measures the absolute price level or exactly reproduces each household’s own spending experience.\n\nIn the CPI breakdown, the largest estimated monthly falls were recreation, sport and culture, down 10.4%; restaurants and accommodation services, down 1.1%; and furnishings, household equipment and routine household maintenance, down 0.5%. The largest estimated increases were transport, up 3.4%; education services, up 3.2%; and alcoholic beverages and tobacco, up 1.1%. HICP showed restaurants and accommodation down 4.3%, recreation down 3.3%, and furnishings down 0.2%; education rose 3.2%, transport 1.7%, and alcohol and tobacco 1.0%. These are selected category movements highlighted by NSI. They are not a complete list of prices and do not show each group’s contribution in percentage points to the headline index.\n\nNSI also reported a Price Index of a Small Basket for households in the lowest-income fifth. The September flash estimate put its monthly increase at 0.2% and its annual increase at 1.9%. Within that basket, food prices were estimated to rise 0.7% from August and services 0.1%, while non-food products fell 0.7%. This indicator follows a specified basket aimed at a defined low-income group; its scope is not the same as headline CPI or HICP. It does not mean that every low-income household buys identical quantities or faces exactly the same rate in its own budget. The release provides no household-level observations. The small-basket estimate is therefore a complementary measure with its own denominator, not a replacement for Bulgaria’s national consumer inflation figures.\n\nThe central limitation is that this is provisional information. Coverage of about 90% describes the share of planned price registrations represented by data available for the flash calculation. It is not a claim that prices are known with 90% accuracy, or that the unobserved registrations cannot affect the final result. The remaining prices may change the index when they are incorporated. Monthly and annual rates use different reference periods; category rates should not be confused with index weights or contributions. Adding selected category rates does not recreate the headline CPI or HICP. The release also does not establish why prices moved, how every person’s real income changed, or what policy action should follow. This article records NSI’s 1 October estimate and its stated method. The scheduled 14 October final release is the source for settled September figures.","corrections":[],"editorial_illustration":{"kind":"symbolic-editorial-illustration","documentary":false,"scope":"section","asset_id":"economy","url":"https://haberpaper.com/assets/illustrations/economy-1536.webp","width":1536,"height":1024,"alt":"Symbolic trading harbour with a cargo ship, containers and a bridge.","language":"en"},"section_illustration":{"kind":"symbolic-editorial-illustration","documentary":false,"scope":"section","asset_id":"economy","url":"https://haberpaper.com/assets/illustrations/economy-1536.webp","width":1536,"height":1024,"alt":"Symbolic trading harbour with a cargo ship, containers and a bridge.","language":"en"}}}